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Topic: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #434 on: December 04, 2023, 02:49:56 PM »
I think they got it right, the four best teams at the moment. 


Nobody knows “best”.    

millions of people thought Georgia and Oregon were the “best” just a few days ago.  

There is no right answer.  Just millions of opinions.  Thats why you need to go by results.  Not prognostication, speculation, point spreads, etc.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

rolltidefan

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #435 on: December 04, 2023, 02:51:08 PM »
Like I said, if FSU had Georgia or Michigan's OOC resume, I'd be fine with it.  At that point you are just punishing Alabama for playing a good OOC team.  So I agree with you.  But if play LSU (neutral) and Florida (road), I don't see how that's not a top 4 resume.
first, i don't disagree. i am, at this point, playing devils advocate. mostly.

but their sos is terrible, even with those sec teams. their opponents have by far the worst record of the top 7 (only with record under .500). their signature win (lsu) is bama's 3rd. would be wash/mich/texas' 3rd as well. they have 1 win vs a team better than 8-4, and that team is 10-3 (bama/mich have 3, texas/wash have 2). bama/mich/texas/wash all have wins over teams that only loss is vs them, closest fsu comes has 2 more losses (to bad teams too).

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #436 on: December 04, 2023, 02:52:33 PM »
I think ANY of the top teams down to QB3 should be out.  And I think the best team is the team that would beat everyone else more often than not, and yes, it's judgment.

I think they got it right.  I understand why others disagree, which is fine.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #437 on: December 04, 2023, 02:55:56 PM »
Bama has earned some of this by their play on the field the past 5 seasons, 10 seasons.
Playing in the top conference, number of wins, number of conference titles, number of playoff wins, number of national titles.
Yeah, but bear in mind that can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more mulligans Bama gets, the more chances they have to win CFP games, and each win tends to make the committee more willing to give them more mulligans. 

rolltidefan

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #438 on: December 04, 2023, 02:58:46 PM »
Yeah, but bear in mind that can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more mulligans Bama gets, the more chances they have to win CFP games, and each win tends to make the committee more willing to give them more mulligans.

i'm not sure it's so much a self fulfilling prophecy as it is just bama taking major advantage of those mulligans. moreso than others have when given the chance. bama isn't the only one given mulligans, nor the first. maybe the most? i don't know that.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #439 on: December 04, 2023, 02:59:09 PM »
which 6 conferences?

Does the MAC or AAC get a spot?
Top six as measured by the CFP rankings. Which (when we had five P5 conferences) would be the P5 conference champions and the highest-ranked G5. 

If the MAC or AAC champ is the highest-ranked G5 conference champ in the CFP rankings, it would be them. This year it would have gone to CUSA, as Liberty is the 6th-best ranked conference champ. 

bayareabadger

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #440 on: December 04, 2023, 03:02:49 PM »
I think ANY of the top teams down to QB3 should be out.  And I think the best team is the team that would beat everyone else more often than not, and yes, it's judgment.

I think they got it right.  I understand why others disagree, which is fine.


Worth noting, a team with QB3 has won a playoff. Marching through two better teams to do it. 

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #441 on: December 04, 2023, 03:03:18 PM »
This is why 12 teams is going to be wild, I think.  I kind of expect someone to figure out they need to change this six team thing or we'd have Oregon State with a slot at 11 and Liberty at 12.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #442 on: December 04, 2023, 03:03:51 PM »
truth is it's some combination of best team and best resume. you have to have a comparable resume to be considered, but if there's more than 4, then of those considered, who are the best teams?

best resume is subjective too, btw. i happened to agree undefeated p5 is better, but that doesn't mean it can't be argued. depends on what you value.

This. 

This is why the whole thing is fubar as you noted, and always has been, and always will be.  I don't care so much about the controversy of who got in and who was left out.  The committee had to pick somebody and they were going to be wrong either way.  They were also going to be right either way.  Because there's a case to be made for both FSU and Alabama.  And sometimes they go by "four best teams" and sometimes they go by "four most deserving teams" and there's no rhyme or reason year to year, slot to slot.  Literally the logic they use to justify putting one team in will reverse itself to justify putting another in/keeping another out.  

The main thing I'd point out about the case for FSU is the broader point for why the whole thing is jacked.  "Best team" is essentially the eye test.  And here's the thing with the eye test.  Nobody knows jack squat.  We know what we think will happen in games where teams are in the same ballpark, but we don't.  The committee is the same people who were balls deep in Oregon just the other day.  Every talking head said Oregon is really better than Washington, even though Oregon lost the regular season game.  Said they were more physical.  Said they will win the rematch.  Lulz.  I could go on....there's literally as many games the general consensus gets wrong as it gets right.  Amazingly, nobody ever seems to track that or remember it.  "FSU would definitely lose to the other teams."  GTFOH.  We literally don't know, and anybody who argues with me on that, take me up on the challenge to pick big games between top teams and let me track it and show you your ~50% success rate over time.  

So "most deserving team" is nothing but an exercise in the futility and hubris of 13 committee members who want to act like they have crystal balls, but don't.  

But then get this.  If they were to go strictly "best resume," they're still going to run into controversy, unsolvable riddles, and situations where they can't be right.  (Or wrong.)  Because it's still people discussing competing criteria with no objective answer which data point or points should trump others. 

Everybody was mad at the BCS because of all the third teams it left out.  And it was generally thought to be the voters' fault.  So they went to a 4 team playoff, like that was going to solve everything.  Many astute observers *ahem* said from the beginning all that would happen is controversy about the 4th spot and the 5th teams it leaves out.  Which is exactly what has happened, multiple times.  Now somehow people think a 12 team playoff will fix that, because....I guess because people who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.  People like to say "If you aren't one of the 12 best teams you don't deserve to be in and can't whine about it."  Those people are clueless.  And they won't even notice their folly in the future when the jilted 13th teams who are playing really well are left out and fans think so-and-so got robbed and they definitely would've competed with anybody.  Wait til a 9-3 Bama gets left out and everybody just knows that Alabama is really one of the best teams in the country and should've gotten in.  

Lol, jk, Alabama is never gonna not gonna get the benefit of the doubt.  But you know what I'm saying.  

There is such a rush to NFL-ize everything about this sport, I can't for the life of me figure out why the powers that be can't figure out that committees and voters just need to stop.  Do what the NFL does, set out criteria before the season ever starts.  There is no subjectivity, no unsolvable riddles, just teams who either hit the mark or they don't.  Beauty pageants have nothing to do with it.  There are tie-breakers galore to be parsed out in advance so that teams who otherwise achieve equal criteria can be filtered out, just like the NFL has.  The way we do it now will never quell controversy and hard feelings, and that can't be solved with expanding the playoff.  Watch and see.  

Although....I think the controversy, the hand-wringing, the weeping and gnashing of teeth, is exactly what ESPN wants.  Nothing drives views and clicks like controversy and talking heads taking one side or the other.  

FearlessF

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #443 on: December 04, 2023, 03:04:40 PM »
Top six as measured by the CFP rankings. Which (when we had five P5 conferences) would be the P5 conference champions and the highest-ranked G5.

If the MAC or AAC champ is the highest-ranked G5 conference champ in the CFP rankings, it would be them. This year it would have gone to CUSA, as Liberty is the 6th-best ranked conference champ.
so, a good chance for more drama from the committee?

great
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ELA

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #444 on: December 04, 2023, 03:06:52 PM »
FWIW, FSU also finished ahead of both Alabama and Texas in SOR, and based on SP+, the ONLY top 5 team in the CFP is Michigan

Updated SOR/SP+ Playoff
  • #1 MICHIGAN vs. #4 OHIO STATE
  • #2 Washington vs. #3 Florida State

2024 12 team format
  • #12 Liberty at #5 OHIO STATE; winner vs. #4 Alabama
  • #11 Missouri at #6 Georgia; winner vs. #3 Florida State
  • #10 Ole Miss at #7 Texas; winner vs. #2 Washington
  • #9 PENN STATE at #8 Oregon; winner vs. #1 MICHIGAN



bayareabadger

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #445 on: December 04, 2023, 03:07:00 PM »
All I know is no matter where my team slots in or doesn’t on any given week, I’ll aim to enjoy watching them get after it (and be mad when they underperform).

Good to start by enjoying the games, let the rest handle itself.

utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #446 on: December 04, 2023, 03:09:19 PM »
Those SOR calculations are really loopy, they're so totally disconnected from SOS.

Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #447 on: December 04, 2023, 03:22:24 PM »
Those SOR calculations are really loopy, they're so totally disconnected from SOS.
I think SoS is often misleading depending on how it's done.  You might have played a 10-2 G5 team and gotten a boost.

 

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