Teams with 1st Loss Week 13:
Ohio State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 13:
Louisville
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 7)
Week 12: 14.3% (1 of 7)
Week 13: 16.7% (1 of 6)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
5: Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Washington, and Liberty
-Lost Ohio State, but no change in numbers.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-The regular season is over for all but Army-Navy and our teams playing in conference championship games. The end of this era, that feels very bitter sweet.
-The biggest game of the week saw Michigan defeat Ohio State. Last year, the Buckeyes managed to still make the playoff bowls after the loss and were a missed stroke of midnight field goal away from going to the national championship where they would have been big favorites. Getting in this year after a loss to Michigan will take a lot more luck as there has been fewer upsets around the country. I'll note just how different the game was this year vs. how it would have been next year. Next year, Ohio State and Michigan would have both been firmly in the playoff already and it would be possible for them to play again next week no matter who won this week.
-We had all kinds of chances for upsets this week, but the favorites pulled out most the big ones in the end The one significant upset (in national title terms) that we did get was Kentucky beating Louisville. That almost certainly means the ACC now has to have Florida State win next week to get in the playoff bowls. They are in for sure with a win, but probably out for sure with a loss. Louisville is almost certainly in the Orange Bowl win or lose.
-On the other side of the Big Ten, we saw Iowa beat Nebraska. Given how tipsy tursey the division has felt, getting a 10-2 team out of it wasn't bad. Iowa has to win next week to get in the New Year 6. Michigan is a huge favorite, but Iowa has surprised this season and the wolverines better not take them lightly. If you are a bubble NY6 team root for Michigan. Bubble CFP bowl teams should root for Iowa (outside of Ohio State). Penn State, for their part, appears to be on the inside of the NY6 for the moment, but I'm guessing Iowa would throw them out.
-Alabama had a miraculous comeback win in the Iron Bowl, to keep them at only 1-loss. They probably couldn't have afforded that loss even with an SEC Championship this year. They play Georgia this week. Georgia is in the CFP with a win and stands a chance with a loss, but would need a good deal of chaos. Alabama is probably in with a win, but most likely needs a little help. Florida State or Washington losing would probably do it. Meanwhile, Missouri pretty much locked themselves into a NY6 bowl with a win this week (only both Iowa and Oklahoma State losing would probably threaten it). Ole Miss, unless ranking change relative to Penn State, looks to be just outside as things stand now.
-In the final year of the traditional PAC-12, we get Washington vs. Oregon for the championship (something I am sure the Big Ten loves). Washington is in the CFP for sure with a win. Oregon likely will be, but will want to root against Alabama, Florida State, and Texas to be sure (any one losing will probably be enough).
-In the Big 12, Oklahoma State got a double overtime win over BYU to put them into the Big 12 Championship over departing rival Oklahoma. They will play Texas, who is hoping for a CFP bowl spot. Despite a bit more money and the logo being placed a few places, I am guessing the conference would prefer if the cowboys win this. Oklahoma State likely needs to win this for a NY6 bowl spot. Texas, for their part, will need a bit of help to get in the CFP with a win. The biggest thing for them (outside of winning themselves) would probably be for Alabama to win the SEC.
The playoff breakdown looks something like this to me.
1-4 (in some order): Undefeated Michigan, Georgia, Florida State, Washington
5-7. 1-loss conference champion: Alabama, Texas, Oregon. This is kind of rock paper scissors to the committee here in my view; I think Alabama beats Oregon in a head to head comparison to the committee, Texas beats Alabama, and Oregon beats Texas.
8-10. Ohio State and 1-loss non conference champion Georgia and Michigan
My personal guess (and that is all it is) is the teams need something like this (in addition to winning):
Alabama: A loss from any one of Michigan, Florida State, Washington, or Texas.
Oregon: A loss from Michigan, Alabama, Texas, or Florida State (an Alabama loss gets them in in my view as Oregon would likely beat Texas in comparison alone; their issue is if the committee is looking at Texas, Alabama, and Oregon together).
Texas: Alabama winning the SEC or losses by Florida State or Michigan
Ohio State: A Michigan win plus losses for both Texas and Florida State (maybe need a Georgia win).
Other Power 5 New Years Six Spots:
If the rankings don't change (outside of Louisville moving down, but they get a spot either way due to the ACC autobid to the Orange Bowl) and all favorites win next week, Penn State will be the last at large for the New Years Six. Oklahoma State and Iowa can play their way in as Big 12 and Big Ten champs though. Based on last week rankings, the first team eliminated would be Penn State should either of them upset in their championship games.
Group of 5 NY6 spot:
The Mountain West is out of the race with all teams having more than 2 losses. The MAC likely can't have enough happen to get 1-loss Toledo in at this point, and the Sun Belt is a long shot at getting the spot for 2-loss Troy. This leaves the most likely race coming down to the American and Conference USA.
Liberty got ranked last week by the committee so I am not going to write them out of this, but they didn't get help from the American last week. Tulane remains the committee's favorite and 2-loss SMU is likely close. My money would be on the American champ to be the representative no matter who wins this week, but if SMU wins, the committee might keep Liberty higher. Will be interesting to see if SMU gets ranked this week and how close they are to Liberty.
Week 14 Thoughts:
Big Ten Championship: Undefeated Michigan vs. Iowa: Will the under hit again? Michigan is a huge favorite. Lose and they probably will be out of the playoff picture. Iowa is playing for a New Years Six bowl.
SEC Championship: 1-Loss Alabama vs. Undefeated Georgia: Winner likely in the playoff bowls. Small chance of two teams in or no teams in if Alabama wins. Based on how the year has gone (fewer top upsets), I would be rooting for Georgia if I were in the SEC offices.
Big 12 Championship: 1-Loss Texas vs. Oklahoma State: Texas stands a half decent chance at playoff bowls with a win, but needs help. Oklahoma State would love to beat out both Texas and Oklahoma on the way out the door.
ACC Championship: Undefeated Florida State vs. Louisville: Florida State is playoff bound with a win. Louisville would love to go to the Orange Bowl as ACC Champions.
PAC-12 Championship: Undefeated Washington vs. 1-loss Oregon: This feels like the final one of these even though the conference will technically go on. Washington won the first round and is playoff bowl locked with a win. Oregon will probably be fine with a win. The loser will still likely be in the NY6.
Conference USA Championship: Undefeated Liberty vs. New Mexico State: It would be something if Conference USA managed to get the NY6 this year after all the defections. I think Liberty is likely to end up ranked the 2nd highest outside the power 5, but there still is a chance if they win this impressively they are going to a NY6 bowl.
American Championship: SMU at 1-loss Tulane: Tulane is in the New Years 6 for sure with a win. If they lose, SMU stands a very good chance at taking the spot themselves. If not, it is Liberty's for the taking.
MAC Championship Miami (OH) vs. 1-loss Toledo: Toledo won this match-up earlier, but it has been a great year for Miami too.
Mountain West Championship: Boise State at UNLV: Boise State has had a good comeback from where they started and UNLV has had a solid season. There is no New Years Six waiting, but being on top as realignment threatens in the west is a good place to be.
Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State at Troy: The Sun Belt was incredibly balanced this year with 12 of 14 teams bowl eligible. Winner here wins a conference it seemed like anyone could (outside of James Madison).
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, total: 5
Florida State
Michigan
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 6
Tulane
Toledo
Alabama
Texas
Oregon
(James Madison)
Ohio State
