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Topic: Rank these teams

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847badgerfan

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #56 on: December 14, 2020, 03:31:17 PM »
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on December 14, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
If Bama and tOSU lose, who knows.
I know. 


1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. aTm
4. Florida
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MrNubbz

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #57 on: December 14, 2020, 03:33:05 PM »
Pot stirrer
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #58 on: December 14, 2020, 03:34:15 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 14, 2020, 02:02:40 PM
I think Florida will score on Bama

I think ND/Clemson will be close.

I Think NW will keep OSU game reasonable. 

So then who are the 4?
IMHO:
  • Bama
  • Clemson
  • tOSU
  • ND
FWIW, I think the best scenario for tOSU would be for ND to upset Clemson.  Then (all other favorites win) I would guess:
  • Bama
  • ND
  • tOSU
  • aTm
That creates a semi-final rematch between Bama/aTm so maybe the committee would jump Cincy over them to avoid that, I don't know.  

I think the committee will want to avoid rematches if at all possible.  It isn't just the general dislike for them that a lot of us share but also the fact that I think it would be terrible for ratings to have two conference-mates play each other.  

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bayareabadger

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #59 on: December 14, 2020, 03:34:29 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2020, 03:17:47 PM
But "greatness" isn't going to be required for the CFP.  In "the rest" who do you think is "great?"

Notre Dame looks "solid" as well, but not great by any stretch.  I don't think they'll stay within 2 TDs of a full-strength Clemson.

Are USC or Cincy or any of the other potential #4 teams "great?"  I don't see it.
Cincy has a great defense and squished a pretty good SMU offense. Their schedule has been worse, but they've been notably more dominant. To qualify, they'll have a conference title and no losses, which is usually a tad overrated, but in a case where you're scraping, it helps. 

Notre Dame has top-10 quality offense and defense. It also has a second-best win of the No. 10 team in SP+ (A&M's is 32) and a second-best of 31 (A&M's is 58th).

USC has a top-10 quality offense. The rankings are wildly hard to read for such a small schedule. They have good SP+ wins, but I don't know what to take from that. Still, I'm tie breaking with the conference title, which some years doesn't mean much, but this year, every chip counts. 

Whoever gets that spot is gonna get slugged, no way around that. But if I'm picking, the team that does nothing super, has a one-game resume (and it's a tight home win) and can't claim a piece of hardware falls in my estimation, as least right now. Things will change Saturday and maybe my thoughts will. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #60 on: December 14, 2020, 03:36:42 PM »
Likely results:

Bama wins.
OSU wins
Clemson/ND win (Clemson I think)
Cincy wins.

That's my four.  I don't see anyone else with a proper claim.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #61 on: December 14, 2020, 03:38:28 PM »
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on December 14, 2020, 03:25:03 PM
If Bama and tOSU lose, who knows.
Assuming Clemson over ND, my guess would be:
  • Clemson
  • Bama
  • aTm
  • ND
Only they would probably flip those bottom two to avoid rematches so it would actually be:
  • Clemson
  • Bama
  • ND
  • aTm

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utee94

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #62 on: December 14, 2020, 03:44:43 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 14, 2020, 03:28:53 PM
It is funny, I think all of this tOSU vs aTm discussion is missing the point.  IMHO, if tOSU beats NU, they are in.  Assuming favorites win the ACC, B1G, and SEC CG's, the top three will be:

  • Bama
  • Clemson
  • tOSU

Further, as far as tOSU is concerned the B1GCG is win or go home.  If they lose, they are out.  In a normal, full year if the Buckeyes were undefeated at this point at 12-0 and had looked generally like a CFP team in doing so, the Buckeyes would have at least a modicum of a chance with a close loss in the CG.  THEN we'd debate 1-loss tOSU vs 1-loss aTm. 

In this case with the Buckeyes at 5-0 heading to the CG, it is win = in, lose = out. 

Assuming the top three laid out above, the real debate is going to be at #4 between:

  • 8-1 aTm (assuming they beat TN)
  • 10-1 Notre Dame
  • 9-0 Cincy (assuming they beat Tulsa)

You could make a case for one of the other P5 Champs if it is:
  • 9-2 ISU with a win over OU, or
  • 8-2 OU with a win over ISU, or
  • 6-0 USC with a win over UW

However, I think the two losses would knock out ISU/OU and USC is pretty far back with a whole bunch of closer-than-they-should-have-been wins.  I just don't think they'll get in. 

Finally, I think this whole debate is academic because, as I said upthread, I would take Bama against an all-star team made up of the best players from aTm, ND, and Cincy.  Thus, the debate is simply over which team gets to get drilled by Bama in the Sugar Bowl. 



I might have missed it, but I don't see anyone debating A&M versus tOSU.  I'm certainly not.  My assumptions are that Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are in.  So I'm debating A&M versus ND, USC, Cincy, etc. as being a discussion of "the best of the rest."


And despite medina's opinions, I continue to see that as a reasonable debate.  I'm not stating the ags are undoubtedly #4, I just think their case isn't particularly worse than any of the other contenders.
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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #63 on: December 14, 2020, 03:48:28 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2020, 03:44:43 PM
I might have missed it, but I don't see anyone debating A&M versus tOSU.  I'm certainly not.  My assumptions are that Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are in.  So I'm debating A&M versus ND, USC, Cincy, etc. as being a discussion of "the best of the rest."


And despite medina's opinions, I continue to see that as a reasonable debate.  I'm not stating the ags are undoubtedly #4, I just think their case isn't particularly worse than any of the other contenders.
I don't see any way the committee keeps ND out if they lose a close game to Clemson. If they are blown out by double digits, maybe. But a close game, I think they are in.
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utee94

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #64 on: December 14, 2020, 03:49:43 PM »
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on December 14, 2020, 03:48:28 PM
I don't see any way the committee keeps ND out if they lose a close game to Clemson. If they are blown out by double digits, maybe. But a close game, I think they are in.
Well sure.

And my assumption-- that I've already stated-- is that ND is going to lose to a full-strength Clemson  by at least 2 TDs.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #65 on: December 14, 2020, 03:54:03 PM »
If Clemson wins a close one, and they include ND,  they have to slot Clemson #2 or #3 in effect.

I don't see it.
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utee94

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #66 on: December 14, 2020, 03:58:13 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 14, 2020, 03:54:03 PM
If Clemson wins a close one, and they include ND,  they have to slot Clemson #2 or #3 in effect.

I don't see it.
I do.  Despite Clemson's recent success, Notre Dame is far more important with respect to turning on television sets, than Clemson is.  I do agree that if Clemson just barely squeaks out a victory over ND, it gives ESPN's selection committee all the excuses they need to include Notre Dame.

I just don't think that's going to happen.  I think Clemson at full strength is a much better team than Notre Dame, and they'll prove it with a 2+ TD win on Saturday.
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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #67 on: December 14, 2020, 03:58:28 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2020, 03:49:43 PM
Well sure.

And my assumption-- that I've already stated-- is that ND is going to lose to a full-strength Clemson  by at least 2 TDs.
I just see everyone here assuming that ND will get blown out Saturday. They won the last matchup and not because Sunshine was out. The Tigers backup QB held his own. The problem for Clemson that night was the defense gave up a ton of points. And I don't see why that would change this time. 

I could be completely wrong about this, but I just don't see this being a blowout. I think ND and Clemson are neck and neck and on a neutral field, it could go either way. But we'll see. 
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utee94

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #68 on: December 14, 2020, 04:01:49 PM »
Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on December 14, 2020, 03:58:28 PM
I just see everyone here assuming that ND will get blown out Saturday. They won the last matchup and not because Sunshine was out. The Tigers backup QB held his own. The problem for Clemson that night was the defense gave up a ton of points. And I don't see why that would change this time.

I could be completely wrong about this, but I just don't see this being a blowout. I think ND and Clemson are neck and neck and on a neutral field, it could go either way. But we'll see.
Clemson also had three key defenders out for that game.
 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rank these teams
« Reply #69 on: December 14, 2020, 04:14:57 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 14, 2020, 03:44:43 PM
I might have missed it, but I don't see anyone debating A&M versus tOSU.  I'm certainly not.  My assumptions are that Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are in.  So I'm debating A&M versus ND, USC, Cincy, etc. as being a discussion of "the best of the rest."

And despite medina's opinions, I continue to see that as a reasonable debate.  I'm not stating the ags are undoubtedly #4, I just think their case isn't particularly worse than any of the other contenders.
Agreed.  You are not disagreeing with any of what I meant.  I might have said it wrong, but this is where I am.  

Ohio State has been a part of a LOT of CFP debates through the years but they were not last year and I don't think they will be this year either.  They will be either clearly in (with a win over NU) or clearly out (with a loss to NU) and not part of any debates.  
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