Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

https://www.ajc.com/sports/college/what-sec-championship-game-tickets-cost-now/xNjdgcXKL749wvkGGsy4KP/#

The SEC, it just costs more.

Not biting this year.

Come On Man
be a helluva memory if the Dawgs spring the upset

we've been conditioned to this by the AP poll and Coaches poll for decades

doesn't mean it's right

I don't believe it

a loss is a loss in my book

we've been conditioned to this by the AP poll and Coaches poll for decades

doesn't mean it's right

I don't believe it

a loss is a loss in my book

Exactly.  Late losses being damning is simply a tradition.  Not a valid reason.  

I'll be the first to say that I often do not understand the reasoning of the 538 folks.  Also, I do not know how much trust to put in their prognosis.  But, FWIW, they have OU ahead of UGA in probability of making the CFP.  I think that Georgia has been ahead for at least the last couple of weeks, but now the Dawgs are now the #5 probability.

For the following, I'm keeping all conditions left blank except the ones I specifically mention.

If OU beats Baylor (64% probability), its probability of making the CFP is 87%.

If Georgia beats LSU (43%), its probability of making the CFP is >99% and LSU's probability is 17%.

If OU and Georgia both win, OU's probability is 85% and Georgia's is >99%.

If Utah beats Oregon (55%), its probability is 50%.

If Baylor beats OU (36%), its probability is 52%.

If Wisconsin beats Ohio State (24%), its probability is 35% and Ohio State's probability is 37%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/

I usually think that 538 does a great job but I just think their probabilities are a little off here. 
Clemson:

• 93% chance to make the playoff,
• >99% if they beat UVA,
• 21% if the lose to UVA.

Ok, that sounds about right to me. 

Ohio State:

• 86% chance to make the playoff,
• >99% if they beat UW,
• 38% if they lose to UW.

I think tOSU's chances are better than 38% even with a loss to UW.  I've seen multiple people refer to both tOSU and LSU as locks already. 

Louisiana State:

• 63% chance to make the playoff,
• >99% if they beat UGA,
• 16% if they lose to UGA.

Same here, I think LSU's chances are better than 16% (although not quite as good as Ohio State's with a loss) even with a loss to UGA and they might already be a lock. 

Oklahoma:

• 57% chance to make the playoff,
• 87% if they beat Baylor,
• <1% if they lose to Baylor. 

I think they are overestimating Oklahoma's chances here.  I still think that if Utah looks dramatically more impressive in beating Oregon than OU looks in beating Baylor, Utah will wind up ranked ahead of Oklahoma.  Additionally, I'm not convinced that either OU or Utah can jump either tOSU or LSU in any case. 

Georgia:

• 46% chance to make the playoff,
• >99% if they beat LSU,
• 5% if they to LSU. 

I don't see how Georgia has even a 5% chance if they lose.  They'd be a 12-2 non-Champion with some good wins but also an UGLY loss.  LSU would obviously be ahead of UGA.  I believe that both tOSU and Clemson would also be ahead of UGA even if they lose.  That right there is three teams ahead of them plus the B12 will produce a 12-1 Champion and the P12 will produce no worse than an 11-2 Champion and I just can't see how UGA could possibly get in as an 11-2 non-champion. 

Utah:

• 28% chance to make the playoff,
• 50% if they beat Oregon,
• <1% if they lose to Oregon. 

Ok, this sounds about right to me. 

Baylor:

• 18% chance to make the playoff,
• 52% if they beat Oklahoma,
• <1% if they lose to Oklahoma. 

Ok, this sounds about right to me. 

Wisconsin:

• 8% chance to make the playoff,
• 34% if they beat Ohio State,
• <1% if they lose to Ohio State. 

I think they are overestimating Wisconsin's chances here.  As I stated previously, even if UW beats Ohio State, the Badgers would still have a worse record than the Buckeyes, only be even (1-1) in the H2H, and the Badgers loss to Illinois is unequivocally worse than anything on Ohio State's resume.  Thus, I don't think that beating the Buckeyes even gets the Badgers ahead of the Buckeyes.  Apparently 538 agrees.  With a Wisconsin win in the B1GCG they give tOSU 38% and UW 34%. 

Oddly, if you assume that both UW and UVA win, Wisconsin's chances increase to 58% but Ohio State's chances only increase to 49%.  I disagree. 

Oregon:

• 2% chance to make the playoff,
• 3% if they beat Utah,
• <1% if they lose to Utah. 

This is a minor disagreement, but I think that Oregon's chances are <1% even if they do beat Utah.  The committee has shown a preference in the past for 1-loss non-champions over 2-loss champions.  Even if Oregon wins the P12, they would only be 11-2 with a pretty ugly loss to ASU and a loss to Auburn that is the perfect justification to put multiple SEC teams in ahead of the Ducks.  I can't envision any scenario in which Oregon could pass LSU, tOSU, Clemson, or the B12 Champion. 


The fundamental problem for Wisconsin and Oregon is that there WILL be at least four teams with zero or one losses:

• Clemson:  13-0 or 12-1
• Ohio State:  13-0 or 12-1
• LSU:  13-0 or 12-1
• OU/Baylor winner:  12-1

Based on what the committee has done in the past, I just don't think that any 2-loss teams are going to get in this year. 

Additionally, I do think that a 2-loss team will eventually make it and might even make it over a 1-loss non-Champion.  Neither Oregon nor Wisconsin have the resume to be the first to do that.  Wisconsin lost to a 6-6 Illinois team and Oregon lost to a 7-5 ASU team.  Oregon only has one win over a currently ranked (AP) team, #24 USC.  Wisconsin has three:  #15 MN, #17 M, and #18 IA.  With CG wins they would improve to two (Oregon) and four (Wisconsin).  Ohio State also has four (#10 UW, #12 PSU, #17 M, and #21 Cincy) while LSU has three (#7 UF, #9 Bama, and #11 Aub).  Thus both the Buckeyes and Tigers would have less and "better" losses and approximately equal quality wins and more wins. 

Their probabilities may well be off (we'd never know), but their math is fine.  That is why they say OU has a better chance than UGA.

I'd say UGA has more like a 25% chance of upsetting LSU, but whatever, I know the spread is fairly small in that one.

Agree with pretty much everything you've said, but not sure I understand how you're reconciling these two statements you've made above.

If you agree that Utah has a lesser chance than OU to make the playoff if they both beat their respective opponents in their CCGs, then I'm not sure how you'd say, above that, that you think they're overestimating OU's chances to make the playoff?

I think their assigned percentages--- given wins in their CCGs, obviously-- are consistent and about right.

I understand your caveat that if Utah looks dramatically better, they could put in Utah over OU, but then below that you say that UTah's chances at 28% total and 50% if they win, looks about tight to you.  I'm not challenging or calling you out, just wondering about your reasoning there.

Overall I think if all goes to chalk-- that is if LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State all win-- and there's only one slot left, then a 12-1 OU goes ahead of a 12-1 Utah in almost every scenario.  And that's largely because Baylor is already considered a better opponent than Oregon. The ONLY case where it doesn't, is just a really sloppy horrible game from OU against Baylor, while Utah absolutely destroys Oregon. 

But I'm not sure what that even looks like in real life.  A 6-3 win for OU and a 49-7 win for Oregon?  Seems like that 6-3 win is just the kind of SEC defensive slugfest everyone professes they love so much.  Or is it a 74-72 7OT win for OU, and a 35-3 win for Utah?  Would that do it?  I just don't know, realistically as it plays out, how "ugly" an OU win has to be over a Baylor squad that is considered better than Oregon, to lose that 4th spot to Utah.

One thing is that a lot will be clarified when we see where the committee puts Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oregon tonight.  I agree that Baylor will be considered a better opponent than Oregon but I do think that how much better matters.  

My 50% for Utah was that the sum of all that information:

• whether Utah hangs on to #5 this week, and
• where Baylor and Oregon slide in, and
• how the Utah/Ore and OU/Bay games look relative to each other

All that adds up to something like 50% each for Utah and Oklahoma.  If Oklahoma takes over the #5 spot this week then I'd make it more like 80/20 in favor of Oklahoma because the Utes would need a massively better looking score against an inferior opponent to jump the Sooners but if Utah starts out 5th then I think they are in a lot better shape as long as LSU wins.  

For me I would have:

5. OU
6. Utah
7. Baylor

But I’m telling ya the margins there between those teams are razor thin.  They all have 4 wins over teams with winning records.  OU has the best high end win beating Baylor on the road.  Utah has beaten its opponents more impressively than OU or Baylor.  The one common opponent OU and Utah had in UCLA they both steamrolled.  Utah a little bit more but beating a team by 46 or 34 doesn’t move the needle for me.

When it gets that close for me I usually go with “who do I think would win on a neutral field?”  And the answer in this case is I honestly don’t know.  I’m ashamed to say it but I think I’m just giving the helmet the benefit of the doubt here a little.  I usually have a pretty strong opinion one way or another in cases like this but this I don’t.  I couldn’t fault the committee either way for what they decide to do.