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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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Cincydawg

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Probable Playoff Teams
« on: November 17, 2019, 01:45:48 PM »
Without getting into the weeds with Medina, here's my notions at this point (not in order):

1.  LSU - UGA winner (unless UGA is upset by A&M, LSU could probably withstand in upset to A&M);

2.  Clemson

3.  Ohio State (they could lose to UM and still make it)

4.  Oklahoma/Baylor vs Utah/Oregon

For some strange reasons we have 5 P5 conferences and only 4 slots (not counting ND on occasion).  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2019, 02:33:32 PM »
I'm afraid if LSU loses to UGA in Atlanta, the Tigers will still get in, ahead of the XII and PAC champions.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2019, 02:38:47 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 17, 2019, 02:33:32 PM
I'm afraid if LSU loses to UGA in Atlanta, the Tigers will still get in, ahead of the XII and PAC champions.

I think so too 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2019, 02:45:26 PM »
I think I'm okay with the PAC champion being left out - the conference is just devoid of depth.  With WSU, UW, and USC all having down years and UO & Utah only meeting in the PACCG, there's just a vacuum of ranked teams on their schedules.  Their resumes fall short.
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LSU is 4-0 vs top 10 teams.  Oregon is 0-0 and would be 1-0 with a win over the Utes.  That's a big discrepancy.
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As for the potential XII champion - both OU and Baylor have the same issue:  their best win would be against the other.  And for OU, they'd only beat a team they already beat.  Inherently, they're just not going to get as much credit if they were to beat another highly-ranked conference foe.  Hence the stupidity of scheduling a rematch before the season begins.
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Many will cry foul when/if LSU gets in after losing to Georgia in Atlanta, BUT...there would be valid reasons.  I'm not saying they'd be right or wrong, but they exist and they're not nothing.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2019, 03:30:06 PM »
Interesting, if LSU loses a very close game to UGA, they would still have a remarkable slate and be 12-1.  They did yield 38 points to a fading Texas, beat Florida 42-38, beat Auburn 23-20, Bama 46-41, and yielded 37 to Ole Miss.  On common opponents, UGA beat Florida 24-21 and Auburn 21-14, in both games seeing solid leads fade in the fourth quarter.  So, if LSU loses say 35-31 in the CG, should they be considered for the playoff?  Considered, yes, included?  I'd call the CG and playoff game and say no.

But they could well be on of the four best teams out there anyway.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2019, 03:36:33 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 17, 2019, 03:30:06 PM


But they could well be on of the four best teams out there anyway.
And this is what we've been told is the committee's goal....yet there would still be an outcry. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2019, 03:41:25 PM »
The stated objective reads "best four teams for the playoff", which arguably is different from "best four teams".
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Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2019, 03:50:58 PM »
I wouldn’t have a big problem with a 12-1 LSU making it in over a 12-1 OU or Pac 12 champ.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2019, 03:57:03 PM »
What's the worst team that can still get in if chaos ensues?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2019, 04:00:18 PM »
Minnesota and Baylor are still technically plausible given enough chaos.  VaTech at 10-3?  I would say no.  LSU could lose to A&M and UGA, UGA could lose to A&M, both then having 2 losses.  I think the Pac will have a 12-1 champ.
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Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 04:10:13 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 17, 2019, 03:57:03 PM
What's the worst team that can still get in if chaos ensues?
Tough one.  I’ve got a scenario where Wisconsin could find it’s way in.

-Wisconsin wins out and beats Penn St in the CCG.
-Ohio St loses to Penn St and Michigan.
-Utah loses one of its last two regular season games.
-USC wins out and beats Oregon in the Pac 12 CCG.
-Baylor and OU each lose another regular season game but then rematch in the CCG.

At that point Wisconsin is in, right?  Nothing else would have to happen.
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Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 04:33:13 PM »
For Notre Dame:

-Utah loses a regular season game.
-USC wins out and beats Oregon in the Pac 12 CCG.
-Ohio St wins out and beats UW in the CCG.
-Penn St loses its last two.
-Clemson loses to South Carolina and VT in the CCG.
-UGA loses to GT and LSU in the CCG.
-Baylor loses its last two but beats OU in the Big XII CCG.

Wisconsin’s scenario was half way plausible.  This one seems too “out there.”
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 04:37:55 PM »
I guess Wisconsin or ND or whoever could get in with some plane crashes.  But short of that, probably not.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2019, 04:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 17, 2019, 04:00:18 PM
Minnesota and Baylor are still technically plausible given enough chaos.  VaTech at 10-3?  I would say no.  LSU could lose to A&M and UGA, UGA could lose to A&M, both then having 2 losses.  I think the Pac will have a 12-1 champ.
For Minnesota and Baylor I don’t think all that much chaos would have to ensue.  They would have to win out and maybe have a game or two outside of their control go their way.  In fact, them winning out would be the hardest and least likely parts of those scenarios.
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