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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #210 on: December 01, 2019, 06:19:36 PM »
It's certainly cool.  You get a trophy.  But it doesn't help you get into the playoff.  Now, winning your conference may be the next-best thing, but I'll be radical and stick with it's one more game.  One more data point.  I get reamed for pointing out how silly it is for someone to say one game is more than one game.  But it is.
Well, according to the committee it actually IS supposed to help you get in the playoff.  So I get the idea that it’s just one more data point and I probably tend to look at it that way.

However, if you take the CFP at its word then if their were  two teams who split meetings in the regular and CCG the team that won the CCG would get a little extra consideration because that game decided the conference and the regular season one didn’t.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #211 on: December 01, 2019, 06:41:02 PM »
Even with an additional loss and MUCH lower point differential?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #212 on: December 01, 2019, 06:57:10 PM »
of course not

don't be silly
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #213 on: December 01, 2019, 07:01:08 PM »
I hate to be the one making this argument when it is for my team, but I disagree.

If Wisconsin wins the B1GCG in a blowout, they and tOSU would be 1-1 H2H with a blowout each way. I see that as a wash and tOSU's other 11 games are unequivocally better.
I agree that tOSU would have the better resume and I would expect the committee to pick the Buckeyes as better, but that's no guarantee the Buckeyes would win a 3rd head to head meeting
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Kris60

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #214 on: December 01, 2019, 07:11:16 PM »
Even with an additional loss and MUCH lower point differential?
If we are talking Wisconsin and Ohio St then a UW win wouldn’t be enough for me personally but it should definitely close the gap.  At the very least UW’s win makes it a much more interesting discussion.  Because they then have very comparable wins and Wisconsin would have the conference championship.

The Illinois loss is still hard to overcome for me. If the extra loss wasn’t to them and was maybe to some really quality OOC opponent then, yeah, maybe I would think UW would deserve the nod there.

CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #215 on: December 01, 2019, 07:19:41 PM »
Even the most intelligent people are often slaves to traditional, group-think.  Unfortunately.
Right.

The widespread idea that Big 12 teams don't play defense while SEC teams do is an example of this.
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #216 on: December 01, 2019, 07:21:15 PM »
We don't need a B1G CCG to know who is the best. We already know it.
This year we know it.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #217 on: December 01, 2019, 07:38:16 PM »
Right.

The widespread idea that Big 12 teams don't play defense while SEC teams do is an example of this.
No it's not.  The data is an example of it.

You may have some argument about LSU, specifically, this year, but that's it.  The overwhelming avalanche of data support the claim.

Oklahoma leads the XII in total defense, allowing 336 ypg.  That would place them...
7th in the SEC
9th in the B10
4th in the ACC
3rd in the PAC


But I'm guilty of lazy, traditional thinking.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2019, 07:53:59 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #218 on: December 01, 2019, 07:38:51 PM »
I agree that tOSU would have the better resume and I would expect the committee to pick the Buckeyes as better, but that's no guarantee the Buckeyes would win a 3rd head to head meeting
Who has even hinted at this?!?!?!?!?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #219 on: December 01, 2019, 07:40:59 PM »
If we are talking Wisconsin and Ohio St then a UW win wouldn’t be enough for me personally but it should definitely close the gap.  At the very least UW’s win makes it a much more interesting discussion.  Because they then have very comparable wins and Wisconsin would have the conference championship.

The Illinois loss is still hard to overcome for me. If the extra loss wasn’t to them and was maybe to some really quality OOC opponent then, yeah, maybe I would think UW would deserve the nod there.

It would narrow the gap...but there would still be an obvious gap.


...and Wisconsin would have the conference championship.
Okay, is that something they can fold up and put in their back pocket?  Because in this instance, that's about all they can do with it.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #220 on: December 01, 2019, 07:42:20 PM »
Now let's discuss the meaninglessness of OU's initial victory over Baylor earlier this year....

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #221 on: December 01, 2019, 07:56:11 PM »
No it's not.  The data is an example of it.

You may have some argument about LSU, specifically, this year, but that's it.  The overwhelming avalanche of data support the claim.
Is Vanderbilt in the SEC?  How about Arkansas?
The most that can accurately be said is that in general SEC teams play better defense than Big 12 teams.  And one may just as accurately say that in general Big 12 teams play better offense than SEC teams.
To say more than that is to fall back on lazy thinking based on traditional understanding.  And I know that you abhor that sort of thing.
If we were going to dig deeper, we might want to assess the impact of taking weekends off during the heat of the conference race in order to play FCS cupcakes.
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #222 on: December 01, 2019, 08:00:29 PM »
It would narrow the gap...but there would still be an obvious gap.


...and Wisconsin would have the conference championship.
Okay, is that something they can fold up and put in their back pocket?  Because in this instance, that's about all they can do with it.
What you are doing here is very interesting.

You don't like the CFP, and yet, while arguing that the CCG winner is not necessarily the best team, you are also making the point that winning your conference and going to a good bowl game--the former metric of a successful season--is meaningless because CFP ratings say otherwise.
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #223 on: December 01, 2019, 08:06:34 PM »
Now let's discuss the meaninglessness of OU's initial victory over Baylor earlier this year....


Heh!  I've said many times that arguments for CCGs and the CFP based on "settling it on the field" are meaningless if CCGs and the CFP include the possibility/probability/certainty of rematches.  If it's "settled," then there's no need to settle it again.
For the record, I do not like CCGs (nor do I like conferences so big as to require them) and I'd rather go back to bowls and polls as the way of determining the national champion.
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