Lets look at the "bubble" teams and what they need to have happen. For this purpose I am excluding tOSU, LSU, Clemson, and UGA because for each of them it is clear that if they win out, they are in.
Here is each "Bubble" team's best-case-scenario:
#5 Bama:
- They win out, and
- LSU wins out, and
- Clemson loses (@USCe, vs UVA/VaTech winner), and
- tOSU wins out, and
- Utah loses (vsColorado or vs Oregon), and
- Oklahoma loses to OkSU but beats Baylor).
In that case LSU and tOSU would be obviously in as 13-0 SEC and B1G Champs. The P12 and B12 Champs would have at least two losses and the ACC Champ would either be a weak SoS 12-1 Clemson or worse. I think Bama would clearly get one of the other two spots.
#6 Utah:
- They win out (vs Colorado, vs Oregon), and
- Oregon beats OrSU (to improve the look of Utah's P12CG win), and
- Bama loses at Auburn, and
- tOSU wins out, and
- LSU wins out, and
- Oklahoma loses to OkSU but beats Baylor, and
In that case LSU and tOSU would obviously be in as 13-0 SEC and B1G Champs but all the other B1G and SEC teams would be non-champions with at least two losses. If they got to 13-0, Clemson would obviously take one of the CFP spots, but the fourth one would belong to 12-1 P12 Champ Utah.
#7 Oklahoma:
- They win out (at #21 OkSU, vs #9 Baylor), and
- Baylor beats Kansas (to improve the look of OU's B12CG win), and
- Bama loses at Auburn, and
- tOSU wins out, and
- LSU wins out, and
- Utah loses either to Colorado or Oregon.
In that case LSU and tOSU would obviously be in as 13-0 SEC and B1G Champs but all the other B1G and SEC teams would be non-champions with at least two losses. If they got to 13-0, Clemson would obviously take one of the CFP spots, but the fourth one would belong to 12-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma.
#8 Minnesota:
- They win out (vs #12 UW, vs #1 tOSU), and
- Ohio State loses to Michigan. (In theory Ohio State winning this game is better because it makes MN's win over tOSU that much better but that also raises the possibility that the Committee would ignore the B1GCG result and take the Buckeyes anyway. That *MIGHT* not happen anyway but it could. Ohio State's overall resume would still be better even after losing the B1GCG to the Gophers.), and
- LSU wins out, and
- Clemson loses a game (MN's SoS would be MUCH better than Clemson's), and
- Iowa beats Nebraska (in case the relative strength of MN's loss becomes a factor), and
- Oklahoma loses to OkSU but beats Baylor
- Utah loses either to Colorado or Oregon
Minnesota doesn't need ALL of those things and frankly they *MIGHT* control their own destiny such that simply winning out to finish 12-1 with a B1G Title is enough but that list is their best-case-scenario.
#9 Baylor:
- They win out (at Kansas, vs #7 Oklahoma), and
- Oklahoma beats OkSU (to improve the look of Baylor's B12CG win), and
- Utah loses either to Colorado or Oregon, and
- Bama loses at Auburn, and
- LSU wins out, and
- tOSU wins out, and
In that case LSU and tOSU would obviously be in as 13-0 SEC and B1G Champs but all the other B1G and SEC teams would be non-champions with at least two losses. If they got to 13-0, Clemson would obviously take one of the CFP spots, but the fourth one would belong to 12-1 B12 Champ Baylor.
#12 Wisconsin:
- They win out (@#8MN, vs #1tOSU), and
- Vis-a-vis Ohio State I am not sure what is best. Even if Ohio State loses to Michigan AND Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would still have a better overall resume than Wisconsin because they have more quality wins and better losses so the best thing probably would be for Ohio State to beat Michigan and then hope the committe finds room for both the Badgers and the Buckeyes.
- LSU wins out, and
- Clemson loses out, and
- Bama loses at Auburn, and
- Utah loses either to Colorado or Oregon, and
- Oklahoma loses to OkSU but beats Baylor, and
In that case LSU would obviously be in as 13-0 SEC Champions. The B12 and P12 would have multiple-loss champions and the ACC would obviously be out. Then the committee might take 11-1 Wisconsin, 12-1 Ohio State, and either the B12 or P12 Champion.
#14 Oregon:
- They win out (vs OrSU, vs #6 Utah), and
- Utah beats Colorado (to improve the look of Oregon's P12CG win), and
- Bama loses at Auburn, and
- LSU wins out, and
- tOSU wins out, and
- Clemson loses out, and
- Oklahoma loses to OkSU but beats Baylor, and
In that case LSU and tOSU would obviously be in as 13-0 SEC and B1G Champs but all other B1G and SEC teams would be non-champions with at least two losses. The ACC would obviously be out. That leaves the last two spots to the B12 and P12 Champions.
