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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #126 on: November 27, 2019, 11:53:11 AM »

Quote
#6 10-1 Utah:
The Utes need to win out and root for Auburn.  

#7 10-1 Oklahoma:
The Sooners need to win out and root for either Colorado or Oregon to beat Utah and it wouldn't hurt if Auburn beat Bama.
I don't think that Utah has to lose for Oklahoma to get in.  If both end up 12-1 conference champs, it's a judgment call for the Committee.


The judgment might come down to which is more important, the resume or style points.  Right now, OU has the better resume, while Utah has the more convincing wins.

It would help OU to blow out oSu and Baylor, but OU is not blowing out anybody lately, averaging 3 turnovers a game over the last month.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #127 on: November 27, 2019, 11:55:33 AM »
I think the close wins for OU would doom them versus 12-1 Utah.  That is why OU is ranked behind them now.  Is Baylor going to boost them?  OSU?  

A solid OSU win MIGHT get them ahead of Utah, something to watch.

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #128 on: November 27, 2019, 12:05:09 PM »
It is to me, as long as the opponent is a name team.  Getting into a NY6 bowl seems like you're in the "in" group for that season. 
For me, it's got to be more than just a "name" team

gotta be a team with some history or rivalry or something

If the Huskers were matched up with, for example, the Sooners, Horns, Miami, Florida St., Notre Dame, Bama, this would be somethingthe press might pick up.

playing Baylor or Utah or Oregon or Georgia???  not so much
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #129 on: November 27, 2019, 01:14:41 PM »
For me, it's got to be more than just a "name" team

gotta be a team with some history or rivalry or something

If the Huskers were matched up with, for example, the Sooners, Horns, Miami, Florida St., Notre Dame, Bama, this would be somethingthe press might pick up.

playing Baylor or Utah or Oregon or Georgia???  not so much
See, I view Oregon and Georgia as name programs, and Baylor/Utah as not.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #130 on: November 27, 2019, 01:16:10 PM »
Whatever happens, if it comes down to Utah and OU, I hope the committee values Utah's defense over OU's helmet....but I'm not optimistic about it.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #131 on: November 27, 2019, 02:05:44 PM »
See, I view Oregon and Georgia as name programs, and Baylor/Utah as not. 
I agree, just saying Nebraska playing Georgia or Oregon in the Suga or the Rose doesn't move the needle for fans or the media
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #132 on: November 27, 2019, 03:50:14 PM »
Whatever happens, if it comes down to Utah and OU, I hope the committee values Utah's defense over OU's helmet....but I'm not optimistic about it.
What you ought to say is that you hope the Committee values defense over offense, but that would be insincere.
There's no stat for "helmet," and we really don't know how much stock the Committee places in helmet status.  I'm sure that they don't discuss it, but I'm also sure that each member is aware of it.
We do know that OU is #1 in total offense and Utah is #19, and we know that Utah is #3 in total defense and OU is #31.
Of course, as Bayareabadger (IIRC) has pointed out, total defense is a shaky stat.  Total offense can be too.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #133 on: November 27, 2019, 04:20:19 PM »
I agree, just saying Nebraska playing Georgia or Oregon in the Suga or the Rose doesn't move the needle for fans or the media

I was excited when UGA played OU because it was the first time (and the Rose Bowl to boot) (and they won).  But I get your point here.  For UGA, the BBs are all out of region save one, so seeing any of them on the schedule is a Big Deal.  

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #134 on: November 27, 2019, 04:56:12 PM »
I really enjoyed the Huskers playing Georgia on new year's day in 2013 & 2014.

Yes because those were the only meetings since the 1969 bowl game in El Paso

Also, because of the Big Ten / SEC thing

but, since the teams have met only 3 times, there's not much history there to relate
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #135 on: November 27, 2019, 05:03:25 PM »
Yeah, any time UGA plays a serious team from out of the south I am "excited".  The further the better.

Part of this is the relative novelty of it of course.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #136 on: November 27, 2019, 05:28:32 PM »
I don't think that Utah has to lose for Oklahoma to get in.  If both end up 12-1 conference champs, it's a judgment call for the Committee.

The judgment might come down to which is more important, the resume or style points.  Right now, OU has the better resume, while Utah has the more convincing wins.

It would help OU to blow out oSu and Baylor, but OU is not blowing out anybody lately, averaging 3 turnovers a game over the last month.
I obviously do not KNOW what the committee would do.  Oklahoma is behind Utah in the current rankings but Oklahoma has #21 OkSU then #9 Baylor left while Utah has sub .500 Colorado and #14 Oregon.  My guess is that if it comes down to 12-1 OU vs 12-1 Utah for the last spot it will largely be decided based on style points in these last two games each.  Ie, if OU gets from here to 12-1 by winning twice in OT while Utah smashes the Buffaloes and Ducks then I think Utah would get it but the reverse is also true.  

I frankly do not think that Alabama will get in even at 11-1 if there is a 12-1 Oklahoma or Utah available.  It is a bit shakier if the 12-1 team is Baylor or Minnesota.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #137 on: November 27, 2019, 06:04:25 PM »
What you ought to say is that you hope the Committee values defense over offense, but that would be insincere.

I value the types of teams that tend to do best.  Not sure where you'll pulling insincerity from.  
It's a statistical truth that a team that wins games 20-10 is going to fare better over many trials than one that wins games 40-30.


I'm sincere about statistical validity.  I'm not anti-OU, I'm anti-crap defenses.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #138 on: November 27, 2019, 06:15:16 PM »
Oklahoma is behind Utah in the current rankings but Oklahoma has #21 OkSU then #9 Baylor left while Utah has sub .500 Colorado and #14 Oregon.  My guess is that if it comes down to 12-1 OU vs 12-1 Utah for the last spot it will largely be decided based on style points in these last two games each.  Ie, if OU gets from here to 12-1 by winning twice in OT while Utah smashes the Buffaloes and Ducks then I think Utah would get it but the reverse is also true. 

You hit the nail on the proverbial here, I suspect.  Oddly enough, if a team smashes another it suggests that opponent was not very good.  I think a score like 34-17 is ideal, you won convincingly, but left room for the vanquished to be considered to still be pretty good.

I would note the Ohio State 59-0 CG win is perhaps counter to this theory.

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #139 on: November 27, 2019, 08:54:24 PM »
I frankly do not think that Alabama will get in even at 11-1 if there is a 12-1 Oklahoma or Utah available.  It is a bit shakier if the 12-1 team is Baylor or Minnesota. 
not sure about Baylor's schedule, but if the Gophers go 12-1 they are in over Bama
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