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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #112 on: November 27, 2019, 01:21:54 AM »
Yeah, I feel like Bama's "down" periods have been fewer and further between, and shorter in duration, than many of the other helmets.  Same goes for OU.

Texas and Nebraska have been struggling for a decade now, and Tennessee even longer than that

And Notre Dame is definitely a helmet. They're pretty much THE helmet.
Once upon a time, I looked at OU's history and Texas' history and concluded that OU had had more peaks (NCs and undefeated seasons) but also more valleys (outright bad seasons).  But over the last 20 years, that has changed.  The Stoop-Riley-era Sooners have been consistently good for the longest period in school history, but the highest peaks have been fewer and farther between.

Since Bob Stoops arrived as OU's HFC in 1999, the Sooners have played 277 games.  Their overall record is 224-53.  That is a .808 winning percentage.  The best season obviously was 2000, 13-0.  The worst was the first, 1999, 7-5.  OU has had two 8-5 seasons (2009 and 2014) and one 8-4 season (2005).  The other 17 seasons (including this one) have featured 10 or more wins.  OU has won 11 conference championships outright and tied for one more.

Obviously, the Sooners haven't won any national championships since 2000.  Indeed, the 18 seasons that have passed since 2000 are more than any other stretch of seasons without a natty since Bud Wilkinson won his first one in 1950.  But in every other way, their record has been remarkably good.

I wonder if any other P5 program has done as well in terms of winning percentage and 10-win seasons over the same time period.  Ohio State would be my guess for a team that has a higher winning percentage, but maybe not as many 10-win seasons.  Bama has won more NCs than anyone else in that period, but has also had some bad seasons.

What is better--sustained "really good" performance or performance with more ups and downs, with higher peaks but lower valleys?  I don't know.  But I think that a lot Sooner fans would like to see an 8th national championship trophy sitting in the display case at the Switzer Center, even if it meant that a 7-win season or two would come with it.

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #113 on: November 27, 2019, 08:39:16 AM »
The saying "Flags fly forever" suggests you want the NC, because it's permanent.  



10-win seasons is not a good bar to set, as seasons used to be 10 games and now are 14 or so.  Even from 2000 to 2015, there's a difference.  Going 10-1 is MUCH better than going 10-4.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #114 on: November 27, 2019, 09:22:08 AM »
A 10 win year is a good year, even if 10-4.  You won your division, not bad even for a near helmet team (depending on expectations).

I'd say 11 wins marks the year as quasi-memorable, and 12 wins puts you into memorable these days, a very good year for nearly every program.

But, it does depend on expectations and program history of course.  Ten wins for Florida coming off a "rebuild" of sorts is a good foundation.  Ten wins for the Vols next year would be, well, historic.

ELA

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #115 on: November 27, 2019, 09:34:51 AM »
I kind of wonder how MSU's 11-2 2014 would have been viewed today, in a vacuum.  Instead it's the middle of a 3 year run, with a Big Ten title on either end, with a Rose Bowl title on the front end, and a CFP appearance on the back end.  I also think, being the first year of the CFP/NY6, and before skipping bowls became a thing, winning a Cotton Bowl was cooler 5 years ago than it would be now.

Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #116 on: November 27, 2019, 09:41:44 AM »
Yeah, and an 8 team playoff would render most 11 win years nearly irrelevant.

Not making the playoff for most teams with aspirations would be a pretty disappointing year.   An NY6 invite today is still a something.

Are you better off being the 8th place team today and going to the Orange Bowl and possibly winning or facing the top ranked team and perhaps getting blown out?


Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #117 on: November 27, 2019, 10:07:49 AM »
Obviously, post-Saturday, things will clear up considerably even though the CGs will remain to be played. An LSU loss would still mean an SEC champ would be 12-1 (presuming UGA beats Tech).  An OSU loss and Minnesota win would mean the same for the B1G.  OU and Baylor likely will yield a 12-1 champ, though Bedlam could ensue there.  If Oregon beats Utah, the Pac is left out again I suspect.  We presume Clemson will beat a Virginia team, though VT has shown a pulse of late.

I'd guess anyone not a Clemson fan would like to see them get scorched in the playoff by say OSU or LSU.

ELA

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #118 on: November 27, 2019, 10:13:54 AM »
An NY6 invite today is still a something.
Is it?

I agree it should be, but does anyone care?

Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #119 on: November 27, 2019, 10:20:16 AM »
For me, it is a something.  My main hope is to win the conference each year, that is a something for me of note.  Winning the NC requires some amount of luck.  

The Citrus Bowl is down into real meh territory unless your program is rebuilding.  So, an NY6 is a solid notch up from that.

I don't think the Dawgs will beat LSU so they consolation likely would be the Orange (which is my least favorite of the NY6s).  Of course, if they lose to VaTech there it will be a real disappointment anyway, 11-3 again.  This really was "their year" IMHO, great OL, Fromm and Swift, ND at home, what could go wrong?  Their offense has me stumped.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #120 on: November 27, 2019, 10:50:50 AM »
Is it?

I agree it should be, but does anyone care?
It is to me, as long as the opponent is a name team.  Getting into a NY6 bowl seems like you're in the "in" group for that season.  
Compare it to going to any bowl, back when there were only a handful of them.  Being a bowl team meant you had a good season.  Now that there are 248 bowl games, you need a line drawn somewhere, and the NY6 means you were generally a top-10ish team that year.  That's a good line to be above, if not in the playoff.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #121 on: November 27, 2019, 10:51:28 AM »
A NY6 bowl loses nearly all of its luster if you're facing a G5 team or (this year) the #2 ACC team.  Ick.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #122 on: November 27, 2019, 10:55:54 AM »
Rankings and remaining games for all the remaining CFP Contenders:

  • #1 11-0 Ohio State:  at #13 M, vs #8MN/#12UW winner.  
  • #2 11-0 LSU:  vs aTm, vs #4 UGA.  
  • #3 11-0 Clemson:  at USCe, vs #24VaTech/UVA winner.  
  • #4 10-1 Georgia:  vs GaTech, vs #2 LSU.  
  • #5 10-1 Bama:  at #15 Auburn.  
  • #6 10-1 Utah:  vs Colorado, vs #14 Oregon (if they beat Colorado).  
  • #7 10-1 Oklahoma:  at #21 OkSU, vs #9 Baylor.  
  • #8 10-1 Minnesota:  vs #12 UW, vs #1 tOSU (if they beat UW).  
  • #9 10-1 Baylor:  at Kansas, vs #7 OU.  
  • #12 9-2 Wisconsin:  at #8 MN, vs #1 tOSU (if they beat MN).  
  • #14 9-2 Oregon:  vs OrSU, vs #6 Utah.  

IMHO, those 11 teams are the only teams with even a remote chance at the CFP.  Even in the worst case scenario for each conference, their champion would be:

ACC:
  • 10-3 UVA:  Currently unranked but back-to-back wins over #24 VaTech and #3 Clemson would obviously change that.  
SEC:
  • 11-2 UGA:  This would require a loss to GaTech then a win in the SECCG.  
B1G:
  • 11-2 UW
B12:
  • 11-2 Baylor
P12:
  • 9-4 USC

If all of those worst-case-scenarios came to pass the following non-champion teams (with worst case record) would also still exist (worst case record for each):
  • 11-2 tOSU
  • 11-2 LSU
  • 11-2 Clemson
  • 10-2 Bama
  • 10-2 Utah
  • 10-3 Oklahoma
  • 10-2 Minnesota
  • 9-4 Oregon
Thus, even the maximum chaos scenario probably results in a CFP of:
  • 11-2 SEC Champion UGA
  • 11-2 B1G Champion UW
  • 11-2 B12 Champion Baylor
  • 11-2 at-large Ohio State

11-2 LSU might get in ahead of 11-2 tOSU or they might both get in ahead of Baylor but I don't think anybody beyond that has a prayer even in the "maximum chaos" scenario.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #123 on: November 27, 2019, 11:09:32 AM »
What each of the 11 contenders need to make the CFP:

#1 11-0 Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are virtually guaranteed of a slot with a win in the B1GCG regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor.  They probably have about a 50/50 shot with a win in Ann Arbor and a loss in the B1GCG and only a minuscule chance with losses in both games.  

#2 11-0 LSU:
Much like the Buckeyes, the Tigers are virtually guaranteed of a slot with a win in the SECCG regardless of what happens against aTm.  They probably have about a 50/50 shot with a win over aTm and a loss in the SECCG and only a minuscule chance with losses in both games.  

#3 11-0 Clemson:
These Tigers have exactly zero wins over currently ranked teams and that isn't going to change by beating a sub .500 USCe.  Unfortunately for Clemson it probably will not change by winning the ACCCG either because VaTech is #24 while UVA is unranked.  The winner will surely be ranked heading into the ACCCG but unranked coming out of it assuming that Clemson wins.  Clemson's laughable SoS is not a problem if they finish 13-0 but at 12-1 even with an ACC Championship it would be problematic.  At 11-2 they have no shot.  

#4 10-1 Georgia:
The Dogs need to win out to be assured of a spot.  If they end up 11-2 they are a LOT better off as an 11-2 SEC Champion than as an 11-2 non-champion.  They are obviously out if they lose both games.  

#5 10-1 Bama:
The Tide need to beat Auburn then root for OkSU, Colorado, Oregon, and anybody else that can knock out one of the other contenders.  

#6 10-1 Utah:
The Utes need to win out and root for Auburn.  

#7 10-1 Oklahoma:
The Sooners need to win out and root for either Colorado or Oregon to beat Utah and it wouldn't hurt if Auburn beat Bama.  

#8 10-1 Minnesota:
The Gophers need to win out and it would help them if Ohio State beats Michigan such that Minnesota's CG win is over #1 rather than a team that already lost once.  At 12-1 with back-to-back wins over UW and tOSU and with a B1G Championship they are probably in anyway, but it wouldn't hurt for Auburn to knock off Bama.  

#9 10-1 Baylor:
The Bears need to win out and it would help them if Oklahoma beats OkSU such that their CG win is over a highly ranked 11-1 OU rather than a two-loss team.  They also need to root for either Colorado or Oregon to beat Utah and Auburn to beat Bama.  

#12 9-2 Wisconsin:
The Badgers need to win out and hope for mayhem.  

#14 9-2 Oregon:
The Ducks need to win out and hope for even more mayhem than Wisconsin needs.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #124 on: November 27, 2019, 11:16:38 AM »
A NY6 bowl loses nearly all of its luster if you're facing a G5 team or (this year) the #2 ACC team.  Ick.
Yeah, that hit the Dawgs last year when they played some no name team and took them for granted.

ELA

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #125 on: November 27, 2019, 11:50:27 AM »
It is to me, as long as the opponent is a name team.  Getting into a NY6 bowl seems like you're in the "in" group for that season. 
Compare it to going to any bowl, back when there were only a handful of them.  Being a bowl team meant you had a good season.  Now that there are 248 bowl games, you need a line drawn somewhere, and the NY6 means you were generally a top-10ish team that year.  That's a good line to be above, if not in the playoff.
I think I agree.  But meh.  There is no discussion of who is playing in the Sugar Bowl or the Rose Bowl.  A good deal of the time one team or the other is either the Go5 team, or a team that had CFP hopes dashed, and it just feels like a lame consolation prize.  How often in the CFP era have we had a NY6 (non CFP) game between two P5 teams that didn't have CFP plans dashed either in a loss in the finale or a selection committee decision?  Like for Florida last year, or MSU in 2014, absolutely.  But both cases they played teams that saw playing in "just" a NY6 game as a drop from what they thought they were getting, so it didn't have the oomph of some non-title BCS games.

 

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