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Screw ND.

We are now at the point where I think we can narrow down the plausible CFP teams to a fairly small number.  First, I think these schools control their own destiny (win out and they are in):

• 11-0 LSU (vsaTm, vs UGA)
• 11-0 tOSU (@M, vs MN/UW winner)
• 11-0 Clemson (@USCe, vs UVA/VaTech winner)
• 10-1 UGA (@GaTech, vs LSU)

Then I think that these teams are right behind those:

• 10-1 Utah (vsColo, IF they win that, then vs Oregon)
• 10-1 OU (@OkSU, vs Baylor)
• 10-1 MN (vsUW, IF they win that, then vs tOSU)
• 10-1 Baylor (@KU, vs OU)

Of those eight, as few as none or as many as six could win out.  At least two must necessarily lose (either LSU or UGA and either tOSU or MN).  

IF less than four of those teams win out THEN we'll have an interesting discussion of the last CFP spot or two.  

What if they lose?  

Either LSU or tOSU can afford a loss in their final regular season game and, so long as they win their CG they will still get in.  

Clemson probably can't afford a loss because their schedule is crap and the only way for it to get better would be for aTm to take out LSU.  

UGA losing to GaTech would be fatal to their CFP hopes IMHO.  They would still have some good wins (UF, Auburn, LSU, ND) but their losses would be horrible.  The first was to a USCe team that went 3-5 in the SEC and is now 4-7 overall with Clemson on deck.  Even if USCe managed to beat Clemson they would still finish as a sub .500 team and that loss was at home for the Bulldogs.  

Utah, OU, Baylor, and Minnesota might not make it even if they do win out and they have exactly zero margin for error.  

IMHO, the only other teams in the mix are 10-1 Bama IF they win at Auburn and 9-2 UW if they beat Minnesota then avenge their earlier loss to Ohio State.  Even then I think they would need a LOT of help.  

Worst case scenarios and why they aren't all that helpful for everyone else:
LSU:  The Tigers could lose out (vaTm, vsUGA).  If they did aTm would finish 8-4 and probably ranked which would help Clemson and UGA would finish no worse than 11-2 and SEC Champions.  That most likely just replaces LSU with UGA.  

Ohio State:  The Buckeyes could lose out (@M, vs MN/UW winner).  If they did Michigan would finish 10-2 with a monster win to cap their season while MN/UW would finish either 12-1 or 11-2 and B1G Champion.  That most likely just replaces Ohio State with the B1GCG winner.  

Clemson:  The Tigers could lose out (@USCe, vsUVA/VaTech winner).  If they did, that would open up a spot for someone else because the ACC Champion would be a 10-3 team that would NOT get in.  

Georgia:  The Bulldogs could lose out (@GaTech, vsLSU).  If they did that would guarantee LSU a CFP spot at no worse than 12-1 and SEC Champions.  

UGA is a 29 point favorite over GT, that sort of upset is rare.  I hope.

FWIW:  I wasn't suggesting that Georgia might lose to Tech, just covering worst-case-scenarios for the top teams.  

Who would you like to see in the playoff, leaving out your team?  What would be fun and still possible?

Minnesota
Baylor
Alabama*
Utah

*Only because of the angst that would cause, and there is not another non-helmet I can see with a shot.  This would mean UGA loses to Tech and beats LSU who already lost to !&M.

Clemson is NOT a helmet school.

OSU's worst three year stretch is better than anyone's, as is their worst 5 or 10 years stretch.

It would be interesting perhaps in the OS to list each major program's worst stretch of X years.

hey now, bama 1999 wasn't 7-5 or worse. 10-3 sec champs, with an epic bowl game vs tom brady and mich. bama lost on a missed xp (man, i hate sp teams sometimes).

Errr, meant to write 4 in 5 but was rushing