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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #28 on: November 18, 2019, 07:58:37 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 17, 2019, 02:45:26 PM
LSU is 4-0 vs top 10 teams.  Oregon is 0-0 and would be 1-0 with a win over the Utes.  That's a big discrepancy.
Sure, those teams were in the top 10 when played, but only 2 are now. And after this past weekend, my guess is that Texas will probably not even be in the Top 25. Hard to claim that win as a Top 10 win. 

However, I do agree that they still have a better resume than Oregon. Just wanted to point out that just because a team is perceived as Top 10 in the early part of the season does not mean they are actually that good. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #29 on: November 18, 2019, 08:12:27 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 17, 2019, 03:57:03 PM
What's the worst team that can still get in if chaos ensues?
In my view, this is really two different questions:
  • What is the maximum possible theoretical chaos, or
  • What is the maximum reasonably plausible chaos.  

Even with only two weeks to go, question #1 is extremely complicated:
  • UGA could lose to GaTech
  • PSU could lose to Rutgers
  • Bama could lose to Western Carolina

Question #2 is not quite so complex.  
  • #1 LSU has a near sure win over Arkansas, a potentially losable game with aTm, and the SECCG vs UGA.  
  • #2 Ohio State has potentially losable games against PSU, M, and (if they beat PSU), the B1GCG.  
  • #3 Clemson has a potentially losable game against USCe, then a potentially losable ACCCG.  
  • #4 UGA has aTm, a near sure win over GaTech, then the SECCG against LSU.  
  • #5 Bama has a near sure win over WCU then a potentially losable game at Auburn
  • #6 Oregon has @ASU and vsOrSU, it might be plausible for them to lose one then the P12CG (they have clinched)
  • #7 Utah has Arizona and Colorado so it is hard to see them losing but if they lose either one then the Trojans would go to the P12CG at 8-4 with a win over UCLA.  
  • #8 Oklahoma has potentially losable games against TCU and OkSU then (probably) a potentially losable rematch with Baylor in the B12CG.  
  • #9 Penn State is a significant underdog at Ohio State.  
  • #10 Florida should beat FSU but can't get to the SECCG.  
  • #11 Minnesota shouldn't have any problems with NU but the UW game should be tough and with a win there they would go to a losable B1GCG.  
  • #12 Michigan could lose either or both of their last two games (@IU, vstOSU) and can't get to the B1GCG even if they win both.  
  • #13 Baylor has a potentially losable game against Texas then should handle Kansas then will likely play a losable rematch against OU in the B12CG.  
  • #14 Wisconsin should handle Purdue but then has a losable game at MN and if they win that they get a losable B1GCG.  

Maximim reasonably plausible chaos:


  • aTm gets REALLY hot and wins their last two against UGA and LSU.  Thus the SECCG features 10-2 UGA vs 11-1 LSU where UGA wins to be SEC Champion at 11-2.  
  • Bama loses to Auburn to finish 10-2 and a non-champion.  
  • Ohio State beats Penn State (this is actually more chaotic, I think) then loses to Michigan and loses the B1GCG to finish 11-2.  
  • Wisconsin wins out to finish as B1G Champion at 11-2.  
  • VaTech wins out to finish as ACC Champion at 10-3.  Meanwhile Clemson loses to USCe and VaTech to finish 11-2.  
  • Utah somehow forgets to show up for either the Arizona or Colorado game and the Trojans beat the Bruins then win the P12CG to finish as P12 Champions at 9-4.  
  • Baylor loses to Texas but wins the rematch with OU in the B12CG to finish as B12 Champions at 11-2.  

In that scenario the P5 Champions would be:
  • 11-2 SEC Champion UGA
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin
  • 11-2 B12 Champion Baylor
  • 10-3 ACC Champion VaTech
  • 9-4 P12 Champion USC

My guess is that UGA, Wisconsin, and Baylor all get in.  I think that VaTech and USC would be left out but I'm not sure who the best non-champion would be.  



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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #30 on: November 18, 2019, 04:53:40 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 18, 2019, 04:10:39 AM
I think the committee agrees with you.  Not necessarily a bad set of thoughts.  But they should just say that.  Oregon beating Utah in early December, after only having lost a game against a good Auburn team in game one, after leading the entire game - to me that says they are in top form and played well all year.  LSU, losing to Georgia in Early December, says to me they are not.  That should mean plenty. But if it doesn’t, that’s ok.....let’s just say so.  Why risk it if you have already concluded who should be in before those games are played. 
Yet WHEN you lose has powered the ebb and flow of polls since the caveman days and died in 2003 (OU losing to KSU in the XIICG badly, and staying in the top 2).  Short of an injury to a major player, a team's entire resume should be taken into account.  A win in Sept = a win in Nov. 
If the committee ever says it includes a team because it's "hot" at the end of the year, I'm closing up shop. 



As for the specific example of 12-1 PAC Champ Oregon vs 12-1 non-SEC Champ LSU....one could argue away that LSU losing to UGA is "okay" because Oregon didn't play anyone as good as the Bulldogs all year.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #31 on: November 18, 2019, 05:24:19 PM »
Maybe. A win in September might equal a win in November all else being equal. But a loss in September may be substantially different than a loss in November, especially if it’s the biggest game of the year such as the conference championship game  maybe. 

The committee, in “choosing “the four best teams Surely has to take into account how the teams are playing at the end of year do they not? To say otherwise would be insanity.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #32 on: November 18, 2019, 06:06:33 PM »
I believe they say they take the team's season as a whole.  They didn't exclude OSU when their QB got hurt.  And labeling what you said as insanity is wrong.  Either a team is 11-1 or better or it's not.  Either they clear the bar as a legit contender or they don't - how "hot" they are by the last game of the season doesn't supersede the previous 11-12 games, nor does it erase early-season losses.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #33 on: November 18, 2019, 06:11:20 PM »
the trouble is that the committee says things, but then they don't follow thru
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #34 on: November 18, 2019, 06:18:59 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on November 18, 2019, 06:11:20 PM
the trouble is that the committee says things, but then they don't follow thru
It shouldn't but that still bothers me about 2017.  Leading up to the CG's, the committee chair stated that #5 (Bama) through #8 (tOSU) were very close.  

Then in the CG's:
  • #1 Clemson beat #7 Miami 38-3
  • #2 Auburn lost to #6 UGA 28-7
  • #3 Oklahoma beat #11 TCU 41-17
  • #4 Wisconsin lost to #8 tOSU 27-21
  • #5 Bama . . . did nothing because they didn't make their CG
  • #6 UGA beat #2 Auburn 28-7
  • #7 Miami lost to #1 Clemson 38-3
  • #8 Ohio State beat #4 Wisconsin 27-21

Ok, if 5-8 were "very close" before the CG's and #8 beat an undefeated, top-4 team, shouldn't #8 pass #5 who did NOTHING to buttress their case?  

The thing is that I don't mind the decision.  Ohio State had more and worse losses than Bama.  I get the reasoning.  I just don't like that they made an obviously false statement.  If beating 12-0 and #4 Wisconsin wasn't enough to push Ohio State ahead of Bama then they weren't "very close" before that so don't tell us that they are!  

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #35 on: November 18, 2019, 06:33:49 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2019, 06:06:33 PM
I believe they say they take the team's season as a whole.  They didn't exclude OSU when their QB got hurt.  And labeling what you said as insanity is wrong.  Either a team is 11-1 or better or it's not.  Either they clear the bar as a legit contender or they don't - how "hot" they are by the last game of the season doesn't supersede the previous 11-12 games, nor does it erase early-season losses.
Well when do you decide if a team clears the bar?  Now?   Before CCG?   Don’t you have to take the last game int account?
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #36 on: November 18, 2019, 06:35:09 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2019, 06:18:59 PM
It shouldn't but that still bothers me about 2017.  Leading up to the CG's, the committee chair stated that #5 (Bama) through #8 (tOSU) were very close. 

Then in the CG's:
  • #1 Clemson beat #7 Miami 38-3
  • #2 Auburn lost to #6 UGA 28-7
  • #3 Oklahoma beat #11 TCU 41-17
  • #4 Wisconsin lost to #8 tOSU 27-21
  • #5 Bama . . . did nothing because they didn't make their CG
  • #6 UGA beat #2 Auburn 28-7
  • #7 Miami lost to #1 Clemson 38-3
  • #8 Ohio State beat #4 Wisconsin 27-21

Ok, if 5-8 were "very close" before the CG's and #8 beat an undefeated, top-4 team, shouldn't #8 pass #5 who did NOTHING to buttress their case? 

The thing is that I don't mind the decision.  Ohio State had more and worse losses than Bama.  I get the reasoning.  I just don't like that they made an obviously false statement.  If beating 12-0 and #4 Wisconsin wasn't enough to push Ohio State ahead of Bama then they weren't "very close" before that so don't tell us that they are! 


Exactly. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #37 on: November 18, 2019, 06:40:00 PM »
gotta draw great TV ratings, so the Committee speaks too much
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #38 on: November 18, 2019, 07:03:22 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on November 18, 2019, 06:33:49 PM
Well when do you decide if a team clears the bar?  Now?  Before CCG?  Don’t you have to take the last game int account?
You absolutely take the last game into account, BUT you value it as one game...because it is.  A lot of people want to value it more, and that's fine - more because it gives the team a title and/or because it's the most recent outcome.  Those are perfectly prudent reasons, but it's also prudent to value it as only one game.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #39 on: November 18, 2019, 07:07:23 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2019, 06:18:59 PM
It shouldn't but that still bothers me about 2017.  Leading up to the CG's, the committee chair stated that #5 (Bama) through #8 (tOSU) were very close. 

Then in the CG's:
  • #1 Clemson beat #7 Miami 38-3
  • #2 Auburn lost to #6 UGA 28-7
  • #3 Oklahoma beat #11 TCU 41-17
  • #4 Wisconsin lost to #8 tOSU 27-21
  • #5 Bama . . . did nothing because they didn't make their CG
  • #6 UGA beat #2 Auburn 28-7
  • #7 Miami lost to #1 Clemson 38-3
  • #8 Ohio State beat #4 Wisconsin 27-21

Ok, if 5-8 were "very close" before the CG's and #8 beat an undefeated, top-4 team, shouldn't #8 pass #5 who did NOTHING to buttress their case? 

The thing is that I don't mind the decision.  Ohio State had more and worse losses than Bama.  I get the reasoning.  I just don't like that they made an obviously false statement.  If beating 12-0 and #4 Wisconsin wasn't enough to push Ohio State ahead of Bama then they weren't "very close" before that so don't tell us that they are! 


Everything you said makes perfect sense.
But also, just thinking about the other side of it...while #5 did nothing to strengthen their resume, they also did nothing to harm it.  It's possible some voters saw OSU's win and thought "they ONLY won by 6" - if they weren't impressed with Wisconsin in the first place.  Alabama staying home allowed voters' imaginations to wonder/assume - maybe Bama whips the Badgers.  Didn't happen, couldn't happen, didn't get a chance to show anything, but the thought could be there.  
It stinks for OSU in that spot, but you could see it as an opportunity to make a statement with a big win.  Any win gets you the B10 crown, but an impressive win maybe gets you more.  It can be unfair and true at the same time.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #40 on: November 20, 2019, 11:46:46 AM »
I watched the "reveal" last night and caught a bit of the discussion before I got bored with the speculation.  Some of the comments on Oklahoma were interesting vis a vis Oregon/Utah, who are ranked higher.  The scenario where LSU loses a close CG is another fly in the ointment.  If we deal only with probabilities, Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU/UGA appear to be "in" (and yes, that can change of course).  Then it looks to me like a 12-1 Pac champion.

Reasonably probable mayhem would be UGA loses to A&M and then beats LSU, Penn State beats Ohio State and loses to a 2 loss team in the west, and somehow VaTech upsets Clemson.  One of those might happen.  Or not.  Utah/Oregon appear to me to be near locks in the Pac CG.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #41 on: November 24, 2019, 10:49:42 AM »
LSU - UGA winner
Clemson
Ohio State

Utah if they win out.

Maybe LSU if they lose in the CG close.

I don't think Baylor/OU can make up enough ground unless Oregon beats Utah and LSU wins.
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