header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: preseason polls coming out...

 (Read 12479 times)

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17702
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #112 on: August 07, 2019, 06:23:12 PM »
Historically, AP voters are free to vote for teams on probation.  OU's '74 AP NC was while on probation.
Yup, the AP has always deliberately-- willfully even-- left itself open to do what it likes.  The coaches' poll, for some obvious reasons, elected not to rank teams on probation.  But the AP chose to leave itself free to rank as they saw fit, in an effort to avoid conflict of interest and remain as fair and unbiased as possible.

And yes, I realize there have historically been plenty of biased AP voters, but the AP poll organization itself has typically tried to avoid the politics of the day, with respect to college football.

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #113 on: August 07, 2019, 07:22:41 PM »
To drive conversation, controversy, and... ideally... ratings for the sport. 
So ... convention then 😎

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18874
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #114 on: August 07, 2019, 08:52:27 PM »
Wouldn't the most likely (yet severely unlikely) spit NC now simply be each P5 conference producing an undefeated champion?  One of them gets left out, spanks someone in their bowl, and finishes the year 14-0 with a big-boy schedule.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #115 on: August 07, 2019, 09:32:08 PM »
A better question in my mind is why does the committee's poll extend out to 25 teams? Why isn't it just a Top 10? Or 4/6/8?

To let the fringe teams know their position -- but even then, why extend it this far?

Convention?

To give us a better sense of what they weigh in their evaluations?
Well, one of the criteria for where a team is ranked is top 25 wins.  In 2014, Minnesota snuck into the committee’s final top 25 and Oklahoma fell out.  So, all of a sudden Baylor and TCU lost a top 25 win and Ohio St gained one (it ended up being a push for TCU because they had beaten Minny too but that isn’t the point).  So in that regard it matters.  It also has a bearing on which G5 team gets a NY6 bowl since the highest ranked gets the nod.


But, yeah, controversy, ratings, and all that stuff play a part too.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17702
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #116 on: August 07, 2019, 10:50:48 PM »
ESPN has one objective.  They've invested billions.  When people say "follow the money" this is exactly what they're talking about.  

KISS.


Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #117 on: August 07, 2019, 11:04:07 PM »
Well, one of the criteria for where a team is ranked is top 25 wins.  In 2014, Minnesota snuck into the committee’s final top 25 and Oklahoma fell out.  So, all of a sudden Baylor and TCU lost a top 25 win and Ohio St gained one (it ended up being a push for TCU because they had beaten Minny too but that isn’t the point).  So in that regard it matters.  It also has a bearing on which G5 team gets a NY6 bowl since the highest ranked gets the nod.


But, yeah, controversy, ratings, and all that stuff play a part too.
You're right. I was ignoring that they might insist on their own standard for that.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71592
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #118 on: August 08, 2019, 07:10:58 AM »
Wouldn't the most likely (yet severely unlikely) spit NC now simply be each P5 conference producing an undefeated champion?  One of them gets left out, spanks someone in their bowl, and finishes the year 14-0 with a big-boy schedule. 
Yes, that also is possible, though if they were 13-0 and won a P5 conference with a Big Boy schedule, it's hard to see how they are left out.

Ostensibly the other four would have been judged to have had a more impressive 13-0.  The AP might think differently, but whoever won the playoff would be 15-0 with two wins over undefeated teams late.  The same could happen if they were all 12-1 and somehow the fifth place team had beaten whoever eventually won the playoff handily first game of the year, but then they eeked by several other games and lost to a bad team late.


medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #119 on: August 08, 2019, 07:47:26 AM »
Wouldn't the most likely (yet severely unlikely) spit NC now simply be each P5 conference producing an undefeated champion?  One of them gets left out, spanks someone in their bowl, and finishes the year 14-0 with a big-boy schedule. 
I think five 1-loss P5 Champs is a lot more likely than five undefeated P5 Champs.  I also think that one or two undefeated P5 Champs (who then lose in their CFP semi-finals) and the rest with 1-loss is more likely.  

I'm only saying that because, IIRC, the power conferences have never all had an undefeated champion in the same year and it is obviously a lot less likely now that all of them would have to win a CG after an undefeated regular season.  Thus, I think the likelihood of all of them producing undefeated champs is less than remote.  

Here is a scenario that is reasonably plausible that would definitely get us close but I still don't think would do it:

Suppose that in 2019 the highest ranked teams from the ACC, SEC, and B12 each finish as champs with one loss while the preseason highest ranked teams from the B1G and PAC and Notre Dame each finish undefeated.  Ie:
  • #1 Clemson wins the ACC at 12-1
  • #2 Bama wins the SEC at 12-1
  • #4 OU wins the B12 at 12-1
  • #5 tOSU wins the B1G at 13-0
  • #9 Notre Dame goes 12-0
  • #12 Washington wins the PAC at 13-0

The final CFP rankings would likely be:
  • 13-0 Ohio State
  • 12-0 Notre Dame
  • 13-0 Washington
  • 12-1 Clemson
  • 12-1 Bama
  • 12-1 Oklahoma
Then lets say that Clemson squeaks past tOSU in the semi-final and squeaks past the ND/UW winner in the CFPCG and meanwhile Bama just obliterates Oklahoma in another bowl.  

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71592
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #120 on: August 08, 2019, 08:01:51 AM »
A better example, though less likely, would be Texas A&M instead of Bama in the above example.  A&M beats Clemson on the road and then has a late upset loss to ... Miss State or somebody and drops down and then barely edges UGA in a contested CG.

Clemson after the early A&M whomps everyone on their slate and rises to #4.  A&M drops after a bad late loss.

Obviously, we're dealing with unlikely scenarios, so it's not going to happen in 20 years, probably.


FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37561
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #121 on: August 08, 2019, 08:52:32 AM »
Well, one of the criteria for where a team is ranked is top 25 wins.  In 2014, Minnesota snuck into the committee’s final top 25 and Oklahoma fell out.  So, all of a sudden Baylor and TCU lost a top 25 win and Ohio St gained one (it ended up being a push for TCU because they had beaten Minny too but that isn’t the point).  So in that regard it matters.  It also has a bearing on which G5 team gets a NY6 bowl since the highest ranked gets the nod.


But, yeah, controversy, ratings, and all that stuff play a part too.
even if the committee has stated that top 25 wins is one of their important criteria, doesn't mean they need to let us know their top 25.  And we all know that their stated criteria goes out the window in the final vote.

Such as conference champ

Using the committee to decide the NY6 bowls seems silly to me.  But, I guess allowing the bowls to decide seems possibly unfair and biased.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71592
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #122 on: August 08, 2019, 09:05:48 AM »
There isn't much difference between the committee ranking and the AP/Coaches/etc. anyway, more nearer the bottom than the top.


FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37561
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #123 on: August 08, 2019, 09:12:15 AM »
I agree, just seems that the committee should focus on the top 6 with an explanation as to why 5 and or 6 wasn't in the top 4

What would be interesting is if the committee would have a team 5-6 places different than the AP poll down around 20 for example - then let the public know why they think the AP is crazy for their ranking of said team

stir things up a bit
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71592
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #124 on: August 08, 2019, 09:15:04 AM »
The only rankings that typically differ that much are early computer rankings, and some late computer rankings, which of late are not of much note anyway.

I should add some Internet outlets do crazy rankings to get clicks.  Reality is the rankings are pretty obvious in the main, getting hazier as you work down the list.

And it's easier to claim X is too high than Y is too low.

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2514
  • Liked:
Re: preseason polls coming out...
« Reply #125 on: August 08, 2019, 11:21:04 AM »
even if the committee has stated that top 25 wins is one of their important criteria, doesn't mean they need to let us know their top 25.  And we all know that their stated criteria goes out the window in the final vote.

Such as conference champ

Using the committee to decide the NY6 bowls seems silly to me.  But, I guess allowing the bowls to decide seems possibly unfair and biased.
Yeah, they don’t have to tell us their whole top 25 but I think there would be an outcry for it if they didn’t.  Especially if they talk about TEAM A having more top 25 wins or quality wins than TEAM B.  I think there would be a natural inclination to want to know the rest of the top 25.

I also disagree that they throw their criteria out the window.  The committee has never said that being a conference champion was a requirement.  They’ve only said they would get extra consideration.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.