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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

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ELA

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2017, 01:21:07 PM »
That the B12 is in relatively better and the P12 in relatively worse shape than I thought.  
The Pac 12 is in trouble because it's incredibly deep with no great team, which is a killer in this format.

The other issue is we have the two bid-stealers this year in Notre Dame and a 12-1 SEC CCG loser.

You leave 3 of the 5 conferences out, and that will really get the ball rolling on an 8 team playoff with 5 auto-bids

ELA

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2017, 01:27:53 PM »
Speaking of conference strength, there is more parity across the conferences than I think we've seen since it started becoming a thing.

Week to Week Conference Ranking based on Composite Computer ranking

ACC - 3 - 3 - 4 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2
BXII - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5
B1G - 4 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 3 - 1 - 3 - 2 - 1
P12 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 3
SEC - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4

Particularly at the top among the ACC, Big Ten and Pac 12, it's almost rotated week to week.  SEC has been consistently #4 and Big XII at the bottom.  Also kind of funny that in the SECs worst year in over a decade, they are looking at getting two teams in for the first time, which was always the flaw is using NCs won as the measure of a conference.  The SEC was the best for a while, but because of its depth, not simply because their top team was the best.

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2017, 02:23:52 PM »
Ed zachery

if the season ended today the committee would have went with 4 undefeated teams


this is part of the problem with the rankings, it's almost like the committee wants to send a message, and they hold the whole "body of work thing" isn't complete until the final one, at which point they might flip it all around.

If this was the last poll, I sort of agree that wiscy and Miami would have been higher.

I wish they would rank some 2 loss teams above 1 loss, if the 2 loss team has some nice wins and the 1 loss team hasn't done squat. they do that a little bit with the 1 loss vs 0 loss but probably  not enough. if you want to get better OOC games then you have to reward teams that lost those as well, assuming they didn't get their doors blown off anyways
I don't know who this Ed person is, but he was wrong, clearly, as two undefeated P5 teams are well down the list.

FearlessF

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2017, 04:35:25 PM »
they wouldn't be well down the list if this was the last poll

Badgers and Canes would be in the top 4
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2017, 05:15:42 PM »
Duh, any 13-0 P5 team is going to make it into the Final Four.  I don't see anyone anywhere saying otherwise.  Obviously the number of losses is a huge factor, but it isn't JUST that.  To imply otherwise is disingenuous in my opinion.

Miami has been smoke and mirrors all year and Wisconsin hasn't really been tested either.  If either go 13-0, they should obviously be "in".






FearlessF

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2017, 06:20:39 PM »
Obviously the number of losses is a huge factor, but it isn't JUST that.  To imply otherwise is disingenuous in my opinion.

It was JUST that last season.  And I suspect it will be JUST that again this season

yes, my argument is that if Wisconsin and Miami go undefeated they will both jump those above them this week and be in the top 4.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2017, 07:00:04 PM »
You need a pretty good reason to jump a 2 loss team ahead of a one loss team into the FF, and since that has not yet happened, that good reason has not happened.

I can't point to a Final Four pick that had some egregious error in it.  I can't point to any 2 loss team that should have been included.

It is going to be the general case that a 12-1 team is ahead of an 11-2 team UNLESS there is a pretty good reason otherwise.  This is in the DUH category.

I'm sure it will happen some year.  I don't have a problem with any of this.

MarqHusker

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2017, 07:16:09 PM »
Indy will host the 2022 Championship game.

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2017, 07:27:19 PM »
A typical schedule for a playoff contender is roughly 4 solid opponents, 4 OK opponents, and 4 pastries (which really cannot possibly win), plus ostensibly a CG against another solid opponent.  Out of the solids, you may find 1 really really good opponent (a PSU, ND type).  The 4 pastries don't count and the 4 OK opponents don't really count either unless you lose to a Syracuse, and then obviously it hurts, but perhaps at times those losses get excused more than a loss like OSU had versus OU.

It's weird to me that Penn State goes on the road to a hostile environment and loses by one point in a great comeback and drops as far as it did.  If one pass happens to be dropped late, PSU is still #2, not #7 or whatever.  In effect, PSU is almost out of the playoff, and they could very well have a top four team (IMHO).

For the Wisconsins and Miamis of the world, they have played some OK opponents and pastries, but have not played a solid opponent to date.  They are for me akin to a Houston or Memphis at 8-0 at this point.  

A playoff team can afford a close loss to a half decent opponent or solid opponent if they are 12-1, but that second loss is simply too much to traverse for most teams who rarely will have 2-3 impressive wins over very very good teams to compensate.  That second loss is too much for compensation unless you happen to have beaten 2 or 3 really good teams, and you rarely have that chance (Iowa State).

CWSooner

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2017, 07:58:43 PM »
A typical schedule for a playoff contender is roughly 4 solid opponents, 4 OK opponents, and 4 pastries (which really cannot possibly win), plus ostensibly a CG against another solid opponent.  Out of the solids, you may find 1 really really good opponent (a PSU, ND type).  The 4 pastries don't count and the 4 OK opponents don't really count either unless you lose to a Syracuse, and then obviously it hurts, but perhaps at times those losses get excused more than a loss like OSU had versus OU.

It's weird to me that Penn State goes on the road to a hostile environment and loses by one point in a great comeback and drops as far as it did.  If one pass happens to be dropped late, PSU is still #2, not #7 or whatever.  In effect, PSU is almost out of the playoff, and they could very well have a top four team (IMHO).

For the Wisconsins and Miamis of the world, they have played some OK opponents and pastries, but have not played a solid opponent to date.  They are for me akin to a Houston or Memphis at 8-0 at this point.  

A playoff team can afford a close loss to a half decent opponent or solid opponent if they are 12-1, but that second loss is simply too much to traverse for most teams who rarely will have 2-3 impressive wins over very very good teams to compensate.  That second loss is too much for compensation unless you happen to have beaten 2 or 3 really good teams, and you rarely have that chance (Iowa State).
Penn State didn't drop at all in the CFP rankings because last night's rankings were the first this season, so there was no drop possible.  What PSU would have been had it beaten tOSU by 1 point instead of losing is unknowable, but almost certainly would be in the top 4.  Probably #3 behind Bama and UGA.  But that one point loss is still a loss.  Just like Notre Dame's 1-point loss to Georgia is a loss, Clemson's 3-point loss to Syracuse is a loss, and Oklahoma's 7-point loss to Iowa State is a loss.  (Granted, PSU's loss was on the road, but so was Clemson's.)  And, just like Oklahoma's defense collapsed in the 2nd half against Iowa State, Penn State's defense caved in against Ohio State in the 2nd half.  And maybe if PSU didn't get a very favorable review overturn--with which the TV guys disagreed--of what appeared to be a tOSU pick in the end zone, the final score is not as close.

Whether good, bad, or ugly, it was a loss to a team that got beaten at home by 15 points by Oklahoma.  Given that, how can Penn State not be ranked (by the committee) behind Ohio State?  And how can Ohio State not be ranked behind Oklahoma?  It seems to me that since Oklahoma is ranked as high as it could reasonably be ranked, then the same is true for Penn State.

As far as Wisconsin and Miami having played weak schedules, what about Bama?  Bama has ESPN's 51st-ranked SoS.  Wisconsin has the 78th-ranked SoS, but Miami's is 38th.  Maybe Miami fans have a gripe.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2017, 08:31:02 PM »
It's not only SoS, but how you handle weaker teams.  Bama has been trouncing people consistently, other than A&M.

That counts, versus sliding by opponents like Miami has done.

Penn State dropped in the two polls and obviously dropped from wherever it would have been had it beaten OSU by a point.

Perhaps someone can point to a team they think should be ranked higher, or lower, in the CFP initial ranking.  Otherwise it's complaining about hypotheticals.

CWSooner

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2017, 08:52:46 PM »
I think the committee got it about right.  I agree with ranking Georgia ahead of having-beaten-no-one-yet Bama.

This is probably widely known here, but Bama has not played a team that is currently receiving votes in the AP Poll or appears in the CFP rankings.

That's about to change, of course.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2017, 08:54:38 PM »
oh my thing is certainly hypothetical..........

I just think it's hypocritical to put undefeated teams such as Wisconsin and Miami down the list in the first poll, but then go by the book of number of losses in the final poll

last season's final poll looked like this..............  

1 Alabama 13-0
2 Clemson 12-1
3 Ohio State 11-1
4 Washington 12-1
5 Penn State 11-2
6 Michigan 10-2
7 Oklahoma 10-2
8 Wisconsin 10-3
9 USC 9-3
10 Colorado 10-3
11 Florida State 9-3
12 Oklahoma State 9-3
13 Louisville 9-3
14 Auburn 8-4
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2017, 08:56:15 PM »

That's about to change, of course.
that's why is first poll is absolutely meaningless
absolutely
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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