Author
Topic: Playoff Rankings
(Read 6905 times)

jgvol · « **Reply #112 on:** November 09, 2022, 01:28:50 PM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on November 09, 2022, 01:11:55 PM

sheesh. even worse. I think Tennessee would deserve to get in over LSU, even if they somehow squeaked by Georgia in the SEC CG. Same way a 1-loss OSU got in over a 2-loss Penn State B1G Champ in 2016.

Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.

Question:

Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.

Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.

Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?

bayareabadger · « **Reply #113 on:** November 09, 2022, 02:23:49 PM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 09, 2022, 01:28:50 PM

Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.

Question:

Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.

Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.

Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?

I used to ask questions like this. I don’t now.

Chances are, Oregon loses. So I’ll wait until they’re 12-1. Then I’ll look at the quality of top wins. Sending a 11-1 non-champ over a 1-loss P5 champ feels really odd to me, especially on that hasn’t lost in three months. But I’ll see how I feel when there’s a full dataset.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #114 on:** November 09, 2022, 02:29:38 PM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 09, 2022, 01:28:50 PM

Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.

Question:

Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.

Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.

Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?

Tough one, as BaB said.

Assuming Oregon wins out, maybe?? That UGA loss sticks in my mind for sure.

I'd probably go with UT there.

Now, USC could be different. They wrap up with games against Colorado, @UCLA and Notre Dame. Assuming they and Oregon win out, and USC beats Oregon in Las Vegas, I'd probably have to go with USC over UT.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #115 on:** November 09, 2022, 02:45:04 PM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 09, 2022, 01:28:50 PM

Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.

Question:

Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.

Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.

Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?

I would for a few reasons:

You acknowledged this by putting neutral in quotes, but I don't consider a game between Oregon and Georgia that was played in Atlanta, Georgia to actually be neutral.
Oregon's record would be 1/2 game better than Tennessee (12-1 vs 11-1), and that extra game would be a CG that would be a relatively tough game. It probably wouldn't completely close the gap between Oregon's and Tennessee's schedules but it would make it a lot closer.
The committee is specifically instructed to give weight to league championships. In the history of the CFP, no P5 Champion has ever been excluded in favor of a non-Champion with the same number of losses.
Tennessee's loss wasn't all that much better than Oregon's. It was closer but neither team was really in striking distance anytime after the halftime show.

On point #3, only six teams have made the CFP without winning their P5 league:

11-1 tOSU in 2016: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 Oklahoma team that tOSU beat by three TD's on Oklahoma's field and an 11-2 PSU team that beat tOSU by a FG at home but lost to a mediocre (8-5) Pitt team and got curb-stomped by Michigan.
11-1 Bama in 2017: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 tOSU team that lost at home to Oklahoma and got drilled on the road by a mediocre (8-5) Iowa team and an 11-2 USC team that lost to a good (9-4) WSU and got drilled by Notre Dame.
12-0 Notre Dame in 2018: the P5 Champs left out were a 12-1 tOSU team that got drilled on the road by a mediocre (6-7) Purdue and a three-loss Washington team.
10-1 Notre Dame in 2020: in this goofy Covid year the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the B12 and P12.
12-1 Georgia in 2021
13-0 Cincinnati in 2021: the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the ACC and B12 and a 3-loss P12 Champ.

jgvol · « **Reply #116 on:** November 09, 2022, 02:54:29 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 09, 2022, 02:45:04 PM

I would for a few reasons:
You acknowledged this by putting neutral in quotes, but I don't consider a game between Oregon and Georgia that was played in Atlanta, Georgia to actually be neutral.
Oregon's record would be 1/2 game better than Tennessee (12-1 vs 11-1), and that extra game would be a CG that would be a relatively tough game. It probably wouldn't completely close the gap between Oregon's and Tennessee's schedules but it would make it a lot closer.
The committee is specifically instructed to give weight to league championships. In the history of the CFP, no P5 Champion has ever been excluded in favor of a non-Champion with the same number of losses.
Tennessee's loss wasn't all that much better than Oregon's. It was closer but neither team was really in striking distance anytime after the halftime show.

On point #3, only six teams have made the CFP without winning their P5 league:
11-1 tOSU in 2016: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 Oklahoma team that tOSU beat by three TD's on Oklahoma's field and an 11-2 PSU team that beat tOSU by a FG at home but lost to a mediocre (8-5) Pitt team and got curb-stomped by Michigan.
11-1 Bama in 2017: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 tOSU team that lost at home to Oklahoma and got drilled on the road by a mediocre (8-5) Iowa team and an 11-2 USC team that lost to a good (9-4) WSU and got drilled by Notre Dame.
12-0 Notre Dame in 2018: the P5 Champs left out were a 12-1 tOSU team that got drilled on the road by a mediocre (6-7) Purdue and a three-loss Washington team.
10-1 Notre Dame in 2020: in this goofy Covid year the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the B12 and P12.
12-1 Georgia in 2021
13-0 Cincinnati in 2021: the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the ACC and B12 and a 3-loss P12 Champ.

Good write up, and good points. Hard to argue against it.

As 847 said, though, how much does the ugly 49-3 number factor into the committee's opinions? It's a Scarlet Letter, that could trump the logic you provided.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #117 on:** November 09, 2022, 03:03:37 PM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 09, 2022, 02:54:29 PM

Good write up, and good points. Hard to argue against it.

As 847 said, though, how much does the ugly 49-3 number factor into the committee's opinions? It's a Scarlet Letter, that could trump the logic you provided.

Thank you.

I agree that the nearly 50 point loss hurts Oregon but I think a mitigating factor is that it occurred on Labor Day weekend rather than Thanksgiving weekend.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #118 on:** November 09, 2022, 04:18:48 PM »

I want to add a couple things on this 11-1,Tennessee vs 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon hypothetical that @jgvol raised.

First, I've added in a hypothetical 11-1 tOSU/Michigan loser because they'd be in the same boat as Tennessee.

Second, I think that the above hurts TN/M/tOSU. If the committee picks either TN or the tOSU/M loser they have to defend not taking a league Champion AND the decision to pick either TN or tOSU/M. If they pick Oregon they can simply defend one proposition (league Champ trumps) and leave it at that.

Finally, here is SoS rank of the four teams per Sagrin:

#21 Tennessee
#32 Ohio State
#43 Oregon
#71 Michigan

Over the next three weeks that gap overall will tighten. Remaining opponents assuming no CG for TN/M/tOSU and a CG for Oregon:

Tennessee has already played the meat of their schedule so their Sos will likely drop with games against USCe, Mizzou, and Vandy.
Ohio State's SoS will drop this week (IU), hold steady next week (UMD), and improve Thanksgiving weekend (M).
Oregon's SoS will improve each week as their last three opponents are all .500+ in the Pac and in this scenario they then go to the P12CG against yet another team that will drive their SoS up.
Michigan's SoS will move almost exactly in tandem with tOSU's as they play UNL, IL, and tOSU.

In this hypothetical:
Problems for Tennessee:

Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and not that much better.
Not a P5 Champion.

Problems for 11-1 Ohio State (assumes a close loss)

Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and at home.
Not a P5 Champion.

Problems for 11-1 Michigan (assumes a close loss)

Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent.
SoS is a disaster due to embarrassing OOC.
Not a P5 Chsmpion.

If Michigan had a better OOC or if tOSU was visiting Ann Arbor this year then I think the tOSU/M road loser would have a case if they lost a game close enough that HFA could reasonably explain it.

jgvol · « **Reply #119 on:** November 09, 2022, 04:30:52 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 09, 2022, 04:18:48 PM

I want to add a couple things on this 11-1,Tennessee vs 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon hypothetical that @jgvol raised.

First, I've added in a hypothetical 11-1 tOSU/Michigan loser because they'd be in the same boat as Tennessee.

Second, I think that the above hurts TN/M/tOSU. If the committee picks either TN or the tOSU/M loser they have to defend not taking a league Champion AND the decision to pick either TN or tOSU/M. If they pick Oregon they can simply defend one proposition (league Champ trumps) and leave it at that.

Finally, here is SoS rank of the four teams per Sagrin:

#21 Tennessee
#32 Ohio State
#43 Oregon
#71 Michigan

Over the next three weeks that gap overall will tighten. Remaining opponents assuming no CG for TN/M/tOSU and a CG for Oregon:
Tennessee has already played the meat of their schedule so their Sos will likely drop with games against USCe, Mizzou, and Vandy.
Ohio State's SoS will drop this week (IU), hold steady next week (UMD), and improve Thanksgiving weekend (M).
Oregon's SoS will improve each week as their last three opponents are all .500+ in the Pac and in this scenario they then go to the P12CG against yet another team that will drive their SoS up.
Michigan's SoS will move almost exactly in tandem with tOSU's as they play UNL, IL, and tOSU.

In this hypothetical:
Problems for Tennessee:

Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and not that much better.
Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Ohio State (assumes a close loss)
Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and at home.
Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Michigan (assumes a close loss)
Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent.
SoS is a disaster due to embarrassing OOC.
Not a P5 Chsmpion.

If Michigan had a better OOC or if tOSU was visiting Ann Arbor this year then I think the tOSU/M road loser would have a case if they lost a game close enough that HFA could reasonably explain it.

Good analysis/breakdown again. I'm very impressed with you B1G guys' attention to details, and well thought out arguments.

One thing I still wonder about, however, is the SOS numbers. You used Sagarin, as I think you (could have been someone else) did some days back, and "we" had a debate, Drew maybe --- about the committee's SOS rankings, and where they derive them from.

Watching the CFB Playoff Show last night, they had Tenn at SOS #2, and SOR #2.

I've googled to try to find the exact metric they are using, but came up empty. The only suggestion I saw online, though not concrete, was that it was up to each committee member's interpretation. ????

Are we being kept in the dark on purpose (certainly), and if otherwise --- where/what is the metric being used?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #120 on:** November 09, 2022, 08:48:19 PM »

Pitting Bo Nix against a big-boy defense is a waste of time. That's what I'd tell the committee if I had a seat at their table.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #121 on:** November 10, 2022, 08:28:54 AM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 09, 2022, 04:30:52 PM

Good analysis/breakdown again. I'm very impressed with you B1G guys' attention to details, and well thought out arguments.

One thing I still wonder about, however, is the SOS numbers. You used Sagarin, as I think you (could have been someone else) did some days back, and "we" had a debate, Drew maybe --- about the committee's SOS rankings, and where they derive them from.

Watching the CFB Playoff Show last night, they had Tenn at SOS #2, and SOR #2.

I've googled to try to find the exact metric they are using, but came up empty. The only suggestion I saw online, though not concrete, was that it was up to each committee member's interpretation. ????

Are we being kept in the dark on purpose (certainly), and if otherwise --- where/what is the metric being used?

I use Sagrin because it is freely and easily accessible. I also think it is relatively accurate but I do kinda like Espn's SOR which more-or-less ignores differences between relative strength of bodybag weaklings.

Ie, if TN plays #100 and Ohio State plays #125 the Volunteers technically played a tougher opponent but if TN and tOSU are both legit NC Contenders then this difference is irrelevant as both should win easily.

I assume that the CFP show used ESPN's metrics because ESPN broadcasts it but my understanding is the the committee members are free to use whatever they want so they might be using ESPN or Sagrin or they might think both of those are bunk and use something none of us have heard of.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #122 on:** November 10, 2022, 05:58:18 PM »

I like that....while all bodybag weaklings* aren't the same, there is a tipping point where they go from 'possible crazy upset' to 'couldn't happen in a million years.'

.
*nice phrase

FearlessF · « **Reply #123 on:** November 10, 2022, 06:02:00 PM »

I like it

so, where's the tipping point?
Appy State?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #124 on:** November 10, 2022, 10:50:10 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 10, 2022, 06:02:00 PM

I like it

so, where's the tipping point?
Appy State?

Circa 2007, sure. There is a lot of overlap between the dregs of the FBS and the elites of the FCS.

FearlessF · « **Reply #125 on:** November 10, 2022, 11:01:15 PM »

true but, according to Sagarin....... or whomever

where's the tippin point?

100?

#78?

# 69?

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Topic: Playoff Rankings

jgvol

Re: Playoff Rankings

bayareabadger

Re: Playoff Rankings

847badgerfan

Re: Playoff Rankings

medinabuckeye1

Re: Playoff Rankings

jgvol

Re: Playoff Rankings

medinabuckeye1

Re: Playoff Rankings

medinabuckeye1

Re: Playoff Rankings

jgvol

Re: Playoff Rankings

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Playoff Rankings

medinabuckeye1

Re: Playoff Rankings

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Playoff Rankings

FearlessF

Re: Playoff Rankings

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Playoff Rankings

FearlessF

Re: Playoff Rankings