CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on November 06, 2022, 08:51:48 AM
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Well.. that got shaken up fast.
Georgia is the clear top team. I don't think that can be disputed.
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
Who is #4? Million Dollar question, right?
I'm going to go with USC. Their only loss is by a point, on the road at Utah. Oregon has played a tougher schedule, but I can't get past 49-3 to Georgia.
5. Tennessee
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Penn State
The clowns doing the picking will have TCU at #4, by default, just like they tried to shoehorn Clemson in there.
TCU will lose to Texas and Baylor in the next two weeks - both on the road.
In the end? I see:
1. Georgia
2. UM/OSU winner
3. Tennessee
4. PAC winner or UM/OSU loser
ELA is right. This would be a good year for the BCS to come back.
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TCU will be 4th. They were right behind Bama, and Bama lost. As did Clemson and Tennessee.
The new batch of playoff rankings will be...
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Michigan
4) TCU
IF TCU remains unbeaten, they'll be in the playoff. They are a better team than Clemson imo. Don't think it's fair to compare the two. Clemson was completely fraudulent. TCU MAY be legit- not sure- don't really think they are- but not sure. Clemson was an obvious fraud however.
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TCU will be 4th. They were right behind Bama, and Bama lost. As did Clemson and Tennessee.
The new batch of playoff rankings will be...
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Michigan
4) TCU
IF TCU remains unbeaten, they'll be in the playoff. They are a better team than Clemson imo. Don't think it's fair to compare the two. Clemson was completely fraudulent. TCU MAY be legit- not sure- don't really think they are- but not sure. Clemson was an obvious fraud however.
I meant for this thread to be more about how WE would rank them, rather than the committee. We're smarter than them.
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I meant for this thread to be more about how WE would rank them, rather than the committee. We're smarter than them.
I am having a tough time with the 4th place team.
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Michigan
4) Tennessee/TCU/Oregon/USC - could make a case for any one of them. I'd lean towards Tennessee or TCU however. Cannot get over Oregon's 46 point BEAT DOWN at the hands of Georgia and USC just does not play defense, the PAC sucks balls and is softer than baby sh*t.
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I am having a tough time with the 4th place team.
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Michigan
4) Tennessee/TCU/Oregon/USC - could make a case for any one of them. I'd lean towards Tennessee or TCU however. Cannot get over Oregon's 46 point BEAT DOWN at the hands of Georgia and USC just does not play defense, the PAC sucks balls and is softer than baby sh*t.
That is why this would be a great year for the BCS.
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The B1G champ is probably in barring some miracle obviously. There is a small chance the SEC could get left out, but the conference champ might not make it. I agree right now about that fourth spot, I'd give it to TCU while expecting that to change. They are undefeated, Clemson is not. Often, those come back wins signal a team that is likely to lose going forward (Clemson). Tennessee oddly enough is in pretty OK shape, it would take a major upset for them not to finish 11-1. The ACC is out, and the B12 might be out. The Pac is looking like they SHOULD have an entry between UCLA/USC/Oregon. Oregon hosts Utah and then has Oregon State to finish, they don't play USC.
We could in theory have a UGA-Oregon rematch ... maybe even in the same stadiuim...
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so we are smarter than the selection committee, but give TCU to 4th spot because of undefeated
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I'm not smarter, I just think it'll take care of itself in a week or two. If TCU runs the table they should be in.
I think their name hurts them here.
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If Oregon and USC/UCLA win out, those schools would meet in Las Vegas for the PAC championship. If this is the case, the winner of that game would probably get the #4 spot.
USC: Colorado, @UCLA, ND
UCLA: Arizona, USC, @Cal
Oregon: Washington, Utah, @OrSU
UCLA has the easiest schedule there, by far.
Oregon has the toughest maybe. That Civil War game.. you just never know.
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I agree.
I think only computers and a few other humans can get over the number of losses
TCU at Texas next week. in Austin.
it's why only the final ranking counts
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I agree.
I think only computers and a few other humans can get over the number of losses
TCU at Texas next week. in Austin.
it's why only the final ranking counts
Then at Baylor the following week.
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not sure Baylor is good
but it's on the road
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I find it odd that Tennessee has a real shot at the CFP IF TCU falls down. Clemson is gone I think. The Pac may get one in. Then it's down to the OSU-UM loser vs 11-1 Tennessee, I think. We COULD have the following final four:
1. UGA (They still have a row to hoe though)
2. OSU
3. Tennessee
4. Oregon
... which COULD set up TWO rematches.
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Hasn't TCU won 5 of the last 7 vs Texas, and 6 of their last 7 vs Baylor?
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1) Dawgs
2)Skunk Weasels
3) tOSU
4)USC - Going with 847 here
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College GameDay is heading back to Austin, Texas for a matchup between the Longhorns and TCU. The crew makes its return trip to the Lone Star State with major College Football Playoff implications on the line.
TCU is a perfect 9-0 on the season, fighting for a spot in the playoff for the first time in program history. And with losses by Clemson, Tennessee and Alabama looming, their odds look better than ever if they can win out.
Obviously, that starts in Austin, which has already hosted the crew before in Week 2 when the Longhorns took on Alabama.
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They win out they are in,of course the Horns wouldn't mind kicking the chair out from under them. In the las ten years the Frogs are 7-3 straight up vs the Horns
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AP Poll"
2022 College Football Rankings for Week 11 | ESPN (https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings)
I think it would be interesting to project LV odds and see who would beat who and rank'em accordingly. I'm not sure who would be favored over Alabama right now, probably only the top 3 teams.
TCU is a heavy dog to Texas but on the road.
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I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan. One can run the ball and the other can't. That means something to me.
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I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan. One can run the ball and the other can't. That means something to me.
You could certainly make a case for Michigan to be ranked higher based on the eye test. I probably would, although I would go back-and-forth like I do lol.
But-that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative. They are not too far off of Michigan in terms of average yards per carry. Michigan is 5.65 and Ohio State is 5.45 ( better than Georgia by the way). Michigan runs the ball 45 times a game which is substantially more than Ohio State.
between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, Illinois, Clemson ( I could keep going with highly ranked teams or teams perceived to be running teams ) who had the most rushing yards yesterday? Ohio State. And that was in a situation where the wind at 30-50 mph gave the other team the knowledge that there was zero passing threat.
Ohio State also has much better passing #s
any stat you measure. They lead the nation in scoring offense and are in the top ten in scoring defense. ( I believe UM is top 2).
Michigan is elite in rushing defense- 2.6 per carry. OSU is not far behind at 3.03
We know these stats are impacted by “ who you play”, for example, Iowa is top 5 in scoring defense but OSU put more than 50 on them.
So, let’s look closer at who they played. They now have 4 common opponents. Ohio State won by a bigger margin in three of those four games.
and we can’t even look at Michigan’s out of conference schedule, there is no comparison.
The only other game is that Ohio State beat Wisconsin by 34 points, and yesterday they beat Michigan’s other opponent Maryland, beat by seven.
again I’ve never believed in the transitive property in football, and I firmly believe the statistics mean Jack shit with these two teams have to play each other. I wouldn’t touch that game with a five dollar bet. Just answering your question of why some people would rank Ohio State had a Michigan right now.
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I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...
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I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...
That’s my point. That and that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.
Ohio State does not want to be a power running team. That does not end well, just see Illinois yesterday for a recent example.
both of these teams use conflict to create a running place successfully. If you shut down their running game they can beat you with a pass and vice versa. Indiana held Michigan to 165 yards rushing and Michigan still kick their ass. In today’s game you have to have balance and use the run to make room for the pass, and a pass to make room for the room and Ohio State is very good at that and so is Michigan
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That’s my point. That and that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative.
Ohio State does not want to be a power running team. That does not end well, just see Illinois yesterday for a recent example.
both of these teams use conflict to create a running place successfully. If you shut down their running game they can beat you with a pass and vice versa. Indiana held Michigan to 165 yards rushing and Michigan still kick their ass. In today’s game you have to have balance and use the run to make room for the pass, and a pass to make room for the room and Ohio State is very good at that and so is Michigan
that was one of the only games Michigan really threw the ball often. Indiana was keeping extra men in the box and run blitzing the sh*t out of Michigan- and JJ threw for 300+ yards- removing the OOC- that's the only time he's ever thrown for more than 220 yards.
Indiana and Iowa did the best of any teams all year slowing down the Michigan rushing attack, and Michigan still went for 165 on Indiana and 172 on Iowa. They went about trying to slow down Michigan's rushing attack in different ways. Iowa didn't run blitz and load the box quite as hard as Indiana did.
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I wish somehow OSU and UM could settle this on the field ...
should be an epic one for the ages. it's shaping up to be the most epic OSU-MICH battle since 2006 or 2016.
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I know, it's very akin to saying UGA just wants to run the ball and can't pass downfield (or that Tennessee only passes and can't run). UGA averages 320 passing, and it would be more except for the blowouts, 325 passing attempts vs 323 rushing. Some teams gets labled because it's facile.
I'd lean a skoch to Michigan right now, but think OSU beats them at home in a classic.
UGA may have a hangover with MissState.
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that was one of the only games Michigan really threw the ball often. Indiana was keeping extra men in the box and run blitzing the sh*t out of Michigan- and JJ threw for 300+ yards- removing the OOC- that's the only time he's ever thrown for more than 220 yards.
Indiana and Iowa did the best of any teams all year slowing down the Michigan rushing attack, and Michigan still went for 165 on Indiana and 172 on Iowa. They went about trying to slow down Michigan's rushing attack in different ways. Iowa didn't run blitz and load the box quite as hard as Indiana did.
That’s right. If someone thinks you can beat one of these teams just by slowing down their running game- I don’t buy it. MCCarthy and the speed UM has on the perimeter will make you pay for overplaying the run- and McCarthy can also burn you with his feet. Both teams make defend the whole field.
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I know, it's very akin to saying UGA just wants to run the ball and can't pass downfield (or that Tennessee only passes and can't run). UGA averages 320 passing, and it would be more except for the blowouts, 325 passing attempts vs 323 rushing. Some teams gets labled because it's facile.
I'd lean a skoch to Michigan right now, but think OSU beats them at home in a classic.
UGA may have a hangover with MissState.
Nah. UGA is winning out, they're the best team in the SEC and in 'Merica.
As for OSU-MICH, right now it's a coin flip, pick 'em. OSU should be favored by 3 points simply just because of home field imo. And I'm leaning towards OSU right now because Michigan hasn't won in Columbus since 2000 when Drew Henson was the starting QB. That's a big ask for a 19 year old kid who is a first time starter and will have just 10 starts total under his belt when he goes into that lions den.
Michigan did much better in the red zone converting TD's this past week. Need to see them keep that up vs Nebraska and Illinois and build on it going into Ohio State. Play-calling still goes long stretches of WTF was that. Downfield passing attack still just a mark off. They are oh so close but just inches and feet off- you'd think at some f'ng point it's got to click and pop. JJ never seems to be in a rhythm- I think this is in large part a side effect of clunky all over the place offensive play-calling- but he's making plays with his feet more and he's limiting the big mistakes- he's getting better every week just running the offense and taking what defense gives him. They still really aren't featuring him in the run game, he's had no designed QB runs and seems like they must be telling him to give the ball and not keep it on the zone read no matter what bc it just seems like he's always making the wrong read on that play and handing the ball off no matter what. They need to get his legs more involved in the offense if they want to beat Ohio State. My guess is they are trying to limit his carries and running until the OSU game or until they get Cade McNamara back healthy to be the back-up- which would make sense bc with McNamara out if JJ gets hurt they're f**ked.
Michigan needs to get Donovan Edwards more involved in the offense as well. He should be getting 12-15 carries a game minimum and he should be getting 5-10 targets a game at receiver minimum. They need to feature this kid in the offense A LOT. Corum is freaking awesome, but Edwards can just do so much more as a receiver and he's got that same home run hitting speed that Corum has.
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You could certainly make a case for Michigan to be ranked higher based on the eye test. I probably would, although I would go back-and-forth like I do lol.
But-that Ohio State can’t run the ball is a completely false narrative. They are not too far off of Michigan in terms of average yards per carry. Michigan is 5.65 and Ohio State is 5.45 ( better than Georgia by the way). Michigan runs the ball 45 times a game which is substantially more than Ohio State.
between Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Oregon, Penn State, Illinois, Clemson ( I could keep going with highly ranked teams or teams perceived to be running teams ) who had the most rushing yards yesterday? Ohio State. And that was in a situation where the wind at 30-50 mph gave the other team the knowledge that there was zero passing threat.
Ohio State also has much better passing #s
any stat you measure. They lead the nation in scoring offense and are in the top ten in scoring defense. ( I believe UM is top 2).
Michigan is elite in rushing defense- 2.6 per carry. OSU is not far behind at 3.03
You're kind of sweeping the numbers under the rug as being close, but they're not.
A team with a lower yards per carry average AND fewer carries isn't "close" to being as productive. Same with the rush D....0.4 ypc isn't really close. OSU faces more rushes AND allows more ypc....the volume matters. It's almost like a multiplier on the "not far behind" per-attempt data.
Just an FYI.
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You're kind of sweeping the numbers under the rug as being close, but they're not.
A team with a lower yards per carry average AND fewer carries isn't "close" to being as productive. Same with the rush D....0.4 ypc isn't really close. OSU faces more rushes AND allows more ypc....the volume matters. It's almost like a multiplier on the "not far behind" per-attempt data.
Just an FYI.
If you think there’s a substantial difference between 5.65 yards per carry and 5.45 yards per carry I’m not sure I can help you.
But Ohio State’s office is by far more productive. That part is factual. And anyway your point that Ohio State can’t run the ball is clearly incorrect.
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They've been held to under 100 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and Michigan's run D is as good as Iowa's.
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They've been held to under 100 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and Michigan's run D is as good as Iowa's.
True. And yet they win all by double digits.
so if you want to rank them behind Michigan that is valid logic.
But to say they can’t run is not correct/ and also misleading. They have had critical success running when they needed to, and, have generally made teams pay dearly for overplaying the run. That’s why they lead the nation in scoring.
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I thought it was because they're 2nd in the nation in passing TDs per game while being only 83rd in pass attempts.
My mistake, I guess.
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Has anyone else ever noticed that Fro argues like a woman?
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I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan. One can run the ball and the other can't. That means something to me.
I think it's a pretty large over statement to conclude Ohio State CANNOT run the ball. One could say they pass better than they run.
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OSU can run the ball just fine.
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I don't understand why OSU is ranked by most everyone over Michigan. One can run the ball and the other can't. That means something to me.
Now that is some silly message board tension generation. Bravo.
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I think it's a pretty large over statement to conclude Ohio State CANNOT run the ball. One could say they pass better than they run.
yeah they can run the ball, just not effectively as Michigan can. Conversely Michigan can pass the ball, just not effectively as OSU can.
They have had 4 common opponents;
Penn State: Michigan- 418 rushing yards, OSU- 98 rushing yards
Iowa: Michigan- 172 rushing yards, OSU- 66 rushing yards
MSU: Michigan- 276 rushing yards, OSU- 237 rushing yards
Rutger: Michigan- 282 rushing yards, OSU- 252 rushing yards
All of this probably means nothing. Transitive property is useless in CFB.
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I'm more interested in both teams defenses than rushing games. I wonder if OSU plays a base 4-3 vs Michigan and ditches the 4-2-5. Not sure 4-2-5 is the kind of defense you want to be in base against a team that wants to run the ball down your throat.
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Joel Klatt's top 10
1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) Ohio State
4) TCU
5) Tennessee
6) Oregon
7) LSU
8) Bama
9) UCLA
10) Utah
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Let's ASSUME:
UGA and LSU win out, and UGA prevails the CG (I like this assumption)
The OSU-UM winner goes 13-0, so that it easy, the loser goes 11-1.
TCU loses to Texas, Tennessee and Oregon win out. I think you have those four in the playoff.
My GUESS is some sort of mayhem ensues and it goes all wonky.
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Let's ASSUME:
UGA and LSU win out, and UGA prevails the CG (I like this assumption)
The OSU-UM winner goes 13-0, so that it easy, the loser goes 11-1.
TCU loses to Texas, Tennessee and Oregon win out. I think you have those four in the playoff.
My GUESS is some sort of mayhem ensues and it goes all wonky.
Depends on the OSU-Michigan game score. Let's say Michigan or OSU wins in a 3 point game. You really leaving one of them out if they play an epic one for the ages slugfest? If one team gets blown out- then sure, no dice, leave 'em out imo.
Not a believer in Tennessee, never have been. They don't play defense and are finesse on the lines of scrimmage and they don't have the top end talent like an OSU or UGA. UGA just punked them. They should've lost to a god awful shitty Pitt team in double OT that was starting it's backup QB. Tennessee isn't done losing imo. Bama could legitimately very easily be a 4 loss team right now- so not sure how great that W really even was.
Can't put Oregon in a playoff with UGA. Already saw that game. They put up 3 points and lost by 46 points.
You're right, it'll get wonky- and could be a mess.
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I recall when folks thought the four teams might be only SEC-B1G. I suppose it's still possible, but won't be Bama. Had Tennessee lost a close one that wasn't 27-6 at one point....
So, let's say Ohio State beats UM 31-24. Does UM still get in over Tennessee? The Vols would have two wins over top ten ranked teams (as it stands). UM has a win over PSU and ... Rutgers.
If Oregon wins the Pac at 12-1 I think they are a lock.
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I recall when folks thought the four teams might be only SEC-B1G. I suppose it's still possible, but won't be Bama. Had Tennessee lost a close one that wasn't 27-6 at one point....
So, let's say Ohio State beats UM 31-24. Does UM still get in over Tennessee? The Vols would have two wins over top ten ranked teams (as it stands). UM has a win over PSU and ... Rutgers.
If Oregon wins the Pac at 12-1 I think they are a lock.
Let's say Michigan beats OSU 31-24. Does Tennessee get in over OSU?
I do think you're right, a 12-1 PAC champ is probably a lock to get in. Don't think they should, but they will.
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Joel Klatt's top 10
1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) Ohio State
4) TCU
5) Tennessee
6) Oregon
7) LSU
8) Bama
9) UCLA
10) Utah
That is lazy.
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yeah they can run the ball, just not effectively as Michigan can. Conversely Michigan can pass the ball, just not effectively as OSU can.
They have had 4 common opponents;
Penn State: Michigan- 418 rushing yards, OSU- 98 rushing yards
Iowa: Michigan- 172 rushing yards, OSU- 66 rushing yards
MSU: Michigan- 276 rushing yards, OSU- 237 rushing yards
Rutger: Michigan- 282 rushing yards, OSU- 252 rushing yards
All of this probably means nothing. Transitive property is useless in CFB.
My contention has always been that the transitive property is just fine, the problem is lack of data.
If you look at just the PSU comparison it looks like Michigan's rushing is VASTLY better than Ohio State's rushing.
If you look at just the Rutgers comparison it looks like they are about even.
Looking at all four it looks like Michigan's rushing is better than Ohio State's but not by a humongous margin.
My concern for Ohio State is the trend. They've been largely ineffective rushing the ball in their last three games. Prior to that they looked fine.
Deeper look at rushing against Rutgers:
Michigan ran for 30 more yards (282 vs 252) but it took them 19 more carries to get there:
- Michigan rushed 53 times for 282 yards, 5.3 per carry.
- Ohio State rushed 34 times for 252 yards, 7.4 per carry.
I'll take Ohio State's 7.4 per carry over Michigan's 5.3 every day and twice on Saturday.
That same analysis doesn't apply to the other common opponents:
Penn State:
- Michigan rushed 55 times for 418 yards, 7.6 per carry.
- Ohio State rushed 26 times for 98 yards, 3.8 per carry.
Iowa:
- Michigan rushed 42 times for 172 yards, 4.1 per carry.
- Ohio State rushed 30 times for 66 yards, 2.2 per carry.
Michigan State:
- Michigan rushed 52 times for 276 yards, 5.3 per carry.
- Ohio State rushed 46 times for 237 yards, 5.2 per carry.
So Ohio State was significantly better against Rutgers. Michigan was significantly better against Iowa and Penn State, and the two were about even against MSU.
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Depends on the OSU-Michigan game score. Let's say Michigan or OSU wins in a 3 point game. You really leaving one of them out if they play an epic one for the ages slugfest? If one team gets blown out- then sure, no dice, leave 'em out imo.
Not a believer in Tennessee, never have been. They don't play defense and are finesse on the lines of scrimmage and they don't have the top end talent like an OSU or UGA. UGA just punked them. They should've lost to a god awful shitty Pitt team in double OT that was starting it's backup QB. Tennessee isn't done losing imo. Bama could legitimately very easily be a 4 loss team right now- so not sure how great that W really even was.
Can't put Oregon in a playoff with UGA. Already saw that game. They put up 3 points and lost by 46 points.
You're right, it'll get wonky- and could be a mess.
At least know what you're talking about.
Pitt most certainly did not start their back up QB.
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Let's say Michigan beats OSU 31-24. Does Tennessee get in over OSU?
I do think you're right, a 12-1 PAC champ is probably a lock to get in. Don't think they should, but they will.
I think one problem for the tOSU/M loser is that the host plays the tougher schedule.
The league schedules are going to be awfully close, maybe slightly tougher for Michigan but there is no comparison of OOC schedules.
If this were an odd year and Ohio State lost a close one at Michigan then Ohio State would have a road loss to a CFP team and a solid schedule with the OOC win over Notre Dame.
Instead the team with the better schedule is the host so the loser will either be a team with a home loss or a team with a weak schedule.
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I'd look at major wins, decent wins, degree of losses to who, etc. A lot of games are just nothings to me. The Vols will have two tidy looking wins, they benefit if Bama and LSU win out of course. Pitt is a nothing win, really negative because it was close, but also early.
What wins would Michigan have?
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I'd look at major wins, decent wins, degree of losses to who, etc. A lot of games are just nothings to me. The Vols will have two tidy looking wins, they benefit if Bama and LSU win out of course. Pitt is a nothing win, really negative because it was close, but also early.
What wins would Michigan have?
yeah good point. Just a Penn State team that should have 10 wins if they hold serve. Bad year in the B1G. Michigan avoided Wisconsin- who is down this year- and Sparty is really bad, and while Iowa has an excellent D they have an all-time bad O so makes it hard to call it a great win. Michigan almost has to win on the road in Columbus, fair or not and they did it to themselves taking UCLA off the schedule. Had they played UCLA and won early on that'd have had that in their back pocket.
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What wins would Michigan have?
We are assuming that they lose to tOSU because if they beat tOSU they are in.
In that case, 11-1 Michigan's wins, by current Sagrin ranking would be:
- By 24 over #10 PSU
- By 13 over #28 Iowa
- By TBD over #31 Illinois
- By 22 over #42 MSU
- By 7 over #46 Maryland
- By TBD over #74 Nebraska
- By 21 over #93 Indiana
- By 35 over #105 Rutgers
- By 59 over #134 UCONN
- By 44 over #148 CoSt
- By 46 over #161 Hawaii
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yeah good point. Just a Penn State team that should have 10 wins if they hold serve. Bad year in the B1G. Michigan avoided Wisconsin- who is down this year- and Sparty is really bad, and while Iowa has an excellent D they have an all-time bad O so makes it hard to call it a great win. Michigan almost has to win on the road in Columbus, fair or not and they did it to themselves taking UCLA off the schedule. Had they played UCLA and won early on that'd have had that in their back pocket.
And the thing is that even if they had lost to UCLA it really wouldn't hurt them, they'd still need to beat tOSU.
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I pretty much thing the UM-OSU winner is in and the loser is out.
Whether we agree or not UT is in as a one loss team over any team from Big.
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I pretty much thing the UM-OSU winner is in and the loser is out.
Whether we agree or not UT is in as a one loss team over any team from Big.
you're probably right. SEC will get in a 2nd team before the B1G. No doubt about it.
MICH-OSU control their own destiny. Win, you're in. As the great Al Davis said, "just win baby".
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On the other hand, one could argue LSU and Bama are over rated. Bama has a thin win OOC and LSU lost theirs. They are both rated top ten right now, or close, but who have they beat really? Bama could lose again and start looking like a fairly modest 9-3 team (with two last second losses on the road). LSU could lose twice more, realistically, and not look good. The Vols need both to continue winning and for the UGA loss to look less bad in time.
But then again, the Vols will be ranked 5 or 6 or maybe 7 in the CFP so they don't have far to go up. Fun stuff.
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On the other hand, one could argue LSU and Bama are over rated. Bama has a thin win OOC and LSU lost theirs. They are both rated top ten right now, or close, but who have they beat really? Bama could lose again and start looking like a fairly modest 9-3 team (with two last second losses on the road). LSU could lose twice more, realistically, and not look good. The Vols need both to continue winning and for the UGA loss to look less bad in time.
But then again, the Vols will be ranked 5 or 6 or maybe 7 in the CFP so they don't have far to go up. Fun stuff.
One could argue that everyone except Georgia is overrated.
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On the other hand, one could argue LSU and Bama are over rated. Bama has a thin win OOC and LSU lost theirs. They are both rated top ten right now, or close, but who have they beat really? Bama could lose again and start looking like a fairly modest 9-3 team (with two last second losses on the road). LSU could lose twice more, realistically, and not look good. The Vols need both to continue winning and for the UGA loss to look less bad in time.
But then again, the Vols will be ranked 5 or 6 or maybe 7 in the CFP so they don't have far to go up. Fun stuff.
Bama is a Quinn Ewers hit away + a really bad overturn of a safety call in the Texas game and a good play-call from the 2 yard line from Jimbo Fisher away in the A&M game from having 4 L's on the resume- and we're only 9 games into the season. Ewers was dealing and just smoking Bama before he got knocked out that game. A really bad A&M team was 2 yards away in the final seconds of the game from beating Bama.
Think we have all been wayyyyy too obsessed with the helmet and the coach and been giving Bama wayyyy too much leeway and credit all year long.
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One could argue that everyone except Georgia is overrated.
yeah, this is kinda where I'm at. I'll start buying in Michigan as a threat for the title if they go on the road and beat Ohio State. right now, not a believer.
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I have argued extensively LSU is overrated.
Somebody is going to prove me right, even if it is eventually Georgia.
I'm still going to pick against them every week, starting with Arkansas. This is the most severe sustained case of punching above your weight class I've ever seen.
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Georgia was overrated just 3 weeks ago.
I've always found it funny how time has such a grip on us all. At least nowadays, WHEN you lose isn't nearly as important as it once was.
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Georgia was overrated just 3 weeks ago.
I've always found it funny how time has such a grip on us all. At least nowadays, WHEN you lose isn't nearly as important as it once was.
well they definitely were sleep walking vs Mizzou and even in the 2nd half vs Kent State. Aside from that- they've pretty much kicked the ever loving shit out of everyone they've played.
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I'm not sure what looking at UM and OSU's rushing output vs Rutgers does for anything. But look at the best defense they've faced:
UM could run on Iowa and OSU couldn't.
Then you look at the defense one of them destroyed on the ground: PSU
UM embarrassed them, OSU held under 100.
Looking at the average defenses they've both mauled isn't very useful: it IS the bath water.
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I guess I should have been more specific and said OSU can't run against a good defense.
And to be fair, just because they haven't doesn't mean they can't.
But taking in all the information, does anyone believe they'll run on UM? If you can't run, you're one-dimensional. If you're one-dimensional, you're right where the DC wants you to be.
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So in lieu of all that, I shorthanded it with "OSU can't." And that's my error. I deeply apologize.
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Didnt Georgia beat Tennessee last week or did I dream it
Why wouldnt Georgia be ranked number 1
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Who suggested they shouldn't be?
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Who suggested they shouldn't be?
arent they currently ranked number 3 or am I looking at an old poll
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arent they currently ranked number 3 or am I looking at an old poll
Last week's CFP, the new one comes out tomorrow.
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TCU is a 7.5 point underdog vs Texas this Saturday. Wow. The disrespect.
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I'm not as sold on the Dawgs as some others, probably because I listened to Larry Munson all those years.
I thought PSU hung pretty well with OSU, but it was on the road.
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I'd rather see TCU and a 11-1 PAC12 champion in the playoffs rather than a second SEC or Big Ten team.
PS. Ohio State can run the ball well enough.
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I'm not as sold on the Dawgs as some others, probably because I listened to Larry Munson all those years.
I thought PSU hung pretty well with OSU, but it was on the road.
Penn State was at home. And yeah it was a really close game, til towards the end where OSU just made some huge plays on defense to flip the game.
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Last week's CFP, the new one comes out tomorrow.
thanks I'll go back to sleep now
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arent they currently ranked number 3 or am I looking at an old poll
Still groggy fron the 'Stro's Celebration?
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But taking in all the information, does anyone believe they'll run on UM? If you can't run, you're one-dimensional. If you're one-dimensional, you're right where the DC wants you to be.
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So in lieu of all that, I shorthanded it with "OSU can't." And that's my error. I deeply apologize.
I don't think they will but I think there is more to it than what you laid out here.
Harbaugh is an old-school BigTen guy from the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler coaching tree. As such his absolute #1 priorities on offense and defense will be to run the ball and stop the run.
If you look back at those old school Hayes vs Schembechler and Schembechler vs Earle Bruce games you usually find that neither could run very well on the other. In the 19 years that Bo coached against Woody and Earle the teams went 9-9-1 and the average score was 15-14.
Harbaugh's team will stop Ohio State from running effectively IMHO, because Harbaugh will do whatever it takes to make that happen.
The relevant question is what will it take?
If Michigan can stop Ohio State from running with their base defense then yeah, I agree, Ohio State is cooked. However, if he has to put nine guys in the box to stop Ohio State's rushing offense he will do it but Stroud will light him up.
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Still groggy fron the 'Stro's Celebration?
I looked back and relize now why I was confused
The ranking showed the current record even though the ranking itself was a week old
Thats unfair to do to an old man
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I don't think they will but I think there is more to it than what you laid out here.
Harbaugh is an old-school BigTen guy from the Woody Hayes/Bo Schembechler coaching tree. As such his absolute #1 priorities on offense and defense will be to run the ball and stop the run.
If you look back at those old school Hayes vs Schembechler and Schembechler vs Earle Bruce games you usually find that neither could run very well on the other. In the 19 years that Bo coached against Woody and Earle the teams went 9-9-1 and the average score was 15-14.
Harbaugh's team will stop Ohio State from running effectively IMHO, because Harbaugh will do whatever it takes to make that happen.
The relevant question is what will it take?
If Michigan can stop Ohio State from running with their base defense then yeah, I agree, Ohio State is cooked. However, if he has to put nine guys in the box to stop Ohio State's rushing offense he will do it but Stroud will light him up.
styles make fights. I am interested in how OSU D will try to counter Michigan's rushing attack. Knowles plays that base 4-2-5. Not sure that's what you want to be in if Michigan is trotting out extra OL and 2 or 3 TE's. I tend to think you don't want a 5th DB in there vs that- and you'd want to have a 3rd LB.
I have a feeling OSU is going to load the box and JJ is going to have to make plays down field with his arm to force OSU out of crowding the box. JJ can do it- it's not like he's incapable of it. He's done it in the past. They have just not been consistent with it- nor have they really tried it much. They have been OH so close on their deep shots. You'd think eventually it'll have to click. They need Roman Wilson back in the worst way- he's by far their best deep threat and fastest receiver. Andrel Anthony needs some go here as well- he's probably their only other WR that has proven he can get open deep- but for some fking reason Harbaugh won't play the kid- despite him just making plays and getting open when he does. It's fkng weird. They need Roman Wilson back and staying healthy vs OSU- he's missed too much time this year with little knicks and knacks and a concussion as well.
I really think Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson need less playing time- they get most of the WR snaps- and they are severely holding back the passing offense in my opinion. Johnson is a terrible route runner and his hands/concentration are suspect. Ronnie Bell is a slot WR who can't really get deep and can't really make the contested catches- he's too small/thin/weak. He's an excellent chain moving slot WR- and that's about it. He's not going to make plays in the air or down the field or scare a defense deep or take a top off a defense.
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https://twitter.com/statsowar/status/1589688284904853504?s=20&t=DEzm-0x2kmTmeTdeguYyqA
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I'm not sure what looking at UM and OSU's rushing output vs Rutgers does for anything. But look at the best defense they've faced:
UM could run on Iowa and OSU couldn't.
Then you look at the defense one of them destroyed on the ground: PSU
UM embarrassed them, OSU held under 100.
Looking at the average defenses they've both mauled isn't very useful: it IS the bath water.
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I guess I should have been more specific and said OSU can't run against a good defense.
And to be fair, just because they haven't doesn't mean they can't.
But taking in all the information, does anyone believe they'll run on UM? If you can't run, you're one-dimensional. If you're one-dimensional, you're right where the DC wants you to be.
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So in lieu of all that, I shorthanded it with "OSU can't." And that's my error. I deeply apologize.
No apology necessary. Your talking football and giving your opinion.
like Medina said up thread, it’s not really an apples to apples comparison. These two teams, Ohio State and Michigan, operate in two completely different ways and both very successfully.
you mentioned Iowa. Let’s take a closer look although with the caveat that Michigan played them on the road and Ohio State played them at home and I think that makes a world of difference.
The buckeyes only rush for 66 yards, but on only 30 attempts. Yeah they had 394 yards of offenses and won by 34 points! Michigan had their second lowest rushing total that day of 172 yards but on 42 attempts. They won by 13 points. They were never in danger of losing, they just did what Michigan does and choked out Iowa over time.
let’s look at Penn State. Michigan slaughtered them and had 418 yards rushing but On 55 attempts. Think about that. 55 attempts. They simply wore Penn State down. They had each of their three studs, Corum, Edwards, and McCarthy each have one very long run. All three were later in the game. Those three runs alone were 150 of their 418 yards. They still count and are extremely impressive but they really skew the numbers and belie the fact that Penn State was actually doing a decent job of containing Michigan‘s running game early on. Penn State only gained 111 yards but on only 22 attempts so we’re actually successful at a 5 yards per carry clip. Ohio State only had 26 attempts against Penn State for a respectable 3.8 yard average which is better than what Penn State did against Ohio State, with only a 3.4 average. Again the caveat is that Ohio State played in happy Valley and that’s a night and day difference just like Iowa and Michigan was.
teams try different things against these two. Pretty much everyone who over focuses on stopping Ohio State’s run game gets burned badly with the passing game. Rutgers actually had a game plan to shut down Ohio State’s passing game. They had a tough zone with like six defensive backs sitting three across at two levels. So Ohio State ran the ball 34 times for 252 yards and 7.4 yards per carry. They won by 39 points. By contrast Michigan ran the ball 53 times against Rutgers for 282 yards or a 5.3 yards per carry.
Styles make fight. Last season OSU showed early on that they struggled with solid running teams, when they lost to Oregon. Michigan kicked their ass based on that. Ohio State did not have much trouble moving the ball and scoring points, even in shitty weather. They just could not get the ball back because they could not even come remotely close to stopping Michigan’s run game. That could happen again this year but Ohio State is playing the run exponentially better this year with a new defensive coordinator and the players are at the very least in position. They are in the top 10 in rushing defense.
do you remember the Ohio State versus Notre Dame game? Notre Dame completely sat, or try to, Ohio State‘s passing game. Of course then their best receiver got hurt early in the game. So when they got to the second half Ohio State went to the run game to dominate, score points, and put the game away. And don’t laugh at Notre Dame, their defensive line is their strength and probably one of the better ones in college football.
Now one thing you pointed out is right on- that at times this season Day thought he could line up and run his basic running plays, and have success. And he was wrong. His vanilla run calls have been very predictable most of the time because most of the Time he can get away with it. When the other team hast to respect a brutal attack from the passing game it makes it easier to run. But-Like last Saturday at Northwestern when there was no passing game due to 50 mile an hour wind gusts, he finally change colors in the second half and called some misdirections, pin and pulls, which Ohio State rarely runs,, and some quarterback runs off of the zone read. Very successful.
also, I think Michigan can be passed on, at least by a high quality passing game. OSU definitely has that.
mix all that together and at least in theory, you should have one hell of a game. I know I wouldn’t bet on it.
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Stroud should run more.
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Stroud should run more.
I definitely don't want to see our superstar QB carrying 20 times a game but it does seem that once or twice a quarter would give opposing defenses something else to worry about.
That, I think, is the name of the game. As @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) pointed out a few teams have approached tOSU with a good plan to contain tOSU's passing game and tOSU was able to run on those teams. Others have come in with a plan to stop tOSU's running game and tOSU was able to pass on them. Northwestern had the weather to neutralize tOSU's passing game and focused nearly all of their efforts on stopping tOSU's running game and more-or-less contained tOSU's offense.
Still, I think this year's tOSU is a lot better than last year's because the defense is a lot better.
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I definitely don't want to see our superstar QB carrying 20 times a game but it does seem that once or twice a quarter would give opposing defenses something else to worry about.
That, I think, is the name of the game. As @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) pointed out a few teams have approached tOSU with a good plan to contain tOSU's passing game and tOSU was able to run on those teams. Others have come in with a plan to stop tOSU's running game and tOSU was able to pass on them. Northwestern had the weather to neutralize tOSU's passing game and focused nearly all of their efforts on stopping tOSU's running game and more-or-less contained tOSU's offense.
Still, I think this year's tOSU is a lot better than last year's because the defense is a lot better.
defense is definitely better imo, but I think the offense took a step back. which was only natural considering they've basically lost THREE 1st round NFL WR's from last year. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the NFL (who are both studs as rookies btw), and JSN who might've been best of the bunch- has been out all year with injury.
I think Marv Jr is a phenomenal WR, but he's not better than the aforementioned 3 WR's. Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming are really good college players and have NFL futures- but again- they aren't on the same level as the aformentioned 3 WR's. These guys are all really good, but they ain't what OSU had at WR last year. Olave was as polished a receiver and maybe the best deep ball dude in the country last year. Garrett Wilson was a freakish route runner with insane ball skills. JSN just might've been the best all-around WR in the country. It was an embarassment of riches at OSU last year at WR. And what's disgusting to think is Jameson Williams was on that roster as well in the spring. Might've been the best collection of WR talent on one college team ever.
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defense is definitely better imo, but I think the offense took a step back. which was only natural considering they've basically lost THREE 1st round NFL WR's from last year. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the NFL (who are both studs as rookies btw), and JSN who might've been best of the bunch- has been out all year with injury.
I think Marv Jr is a phenomenal WR, but he's not better than the aforementioned 3 WR's. Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming are really good college players and have NFL futures- but again- they aren't on the same level as the aformentioned 3 WR's. These guys are all really good, but they ain't what OSU had at WR last year. Olave was as polished a receiver and maybe the best deep ball dude in the country last year. Garrett Wilson was a freakish route runner with insane ball skills. JSN just might've been the best all-around WR in the country. It was an embarassment of riches at OSU last year at WR. And what's disgusting to think is Jameson Williams was on that roster as well in the spring. Might've been the best collection of WR talent on one college team ever.
I do think that JSN being out has a big impact because it isn't just him. If JSN is in and fully healthy he gets the opponent's best DB which gives Marv an easier time against DB #2 and Fleming an easier time against DB #3. Not only does tOSU pick up JSN, but the other guys' production improves as well.
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I do think that JSN being out has a big impact because it isn't just him. If JSN is in and fully healthy he gets the opponent's best DB which gives Marv an easier time against DB #2 and Fleming an easier time against DB #3. Not only does tOSU pick up JSN, but the other guys' production improves as well.
yeah, JSN just makes every body on the offense better. he's an elite WR. OSU has absolutely 100% missed him and Stroud and that entire offense goes up another level with him starting.
Marv is really good but watching him, he doesn't get a ton of separation and definitely doesn't have the crazy burst or speed of his father. But he doesn't need that because: he's 6'4, runs good routes, and his ball skills and hands are insane. He makes really tough, contested catches all the time- even when there is good coverage on him and the DB is sticking to him. Just makes Stroud's job a little harder because he's got tighter windows and has to throw more accurate balls than he had to when he had Olave, Wilson, and JSN just mercing DBs with their quick cuts and breaks and speed and getting wide open by 3-4-5 yards.
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let’s look at Penn State. Michigan slaughtered them and had 418 yards rushing but On 55 attempts. Think about that. 55 attempts. They simply wore Penn State down. They had each of their three studs, Corum, Edwards, and McCarthy each have one very long run. All three were later in the game. Those three runs alone were 150 of their 418 yards. They still count and are extremely impressive but they really skew the numbers and belie the fact that Penn State was actually doing a decent job of containing Michigan‘s running game early on. Penn State only gained 111 yards but on only 22 attempts so we’re actually successful at a 5 yards per carry clip. Ohio State only had 26 attempts against Penn State for a respectable 3.8 yard average which is better than what Penn State did against Ohio State, with only a 3.4 average. Again the caveat is that Ohio State played in happy Valley and that’s a night and day difference just like Iowa and Michigan was.
The stat I would most like to see added to box scores is median rush (both by player and overall). Your comment here gets at the reason. The long runs skew the average because there are almost never any counterbalancing long losses. Other than sacks (which shouldn't count in rushing stats anyway), runs for a loss are usually a loss of just one or two yards. Once in a while a sweep of some sort will get blown up for a four or five yard loss but those are rare and still isn't near as big (of a negative) as a long run can be as a positive.
The game I always think of is the 2006 #1 vs #2 edition of THE GAME. For this comparison I'm only considering runs by RB's. That leaves out four QB runs for each team (-33 yards for M, 12 yards for tOSU) and WR's (M had three of 1 8, and 12 yards).
Runs by running backs in the 2006 tOSU/M game:
- Mike Hart carried 23 times for Michigan and gained 142 yards for an average of 6.2 per carry.
- Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells carried a combined 23 times for Ohio State for 195 yards for an average of 8.5 per carry.
That makes it seem like both teams were running at will. They weren't. Both totals are substantially impacted by a few long runs:
- Mike Hart had a long of 33 and another carry that went for 30. The 63 yards gained on those two represent nearly half of his total for the game. He gained 79 yards on his other 21 carries for an average of 3.8 per carry.
- Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells had long carries of 56 and 52 yards respectively. The 108 yards gained on those two represent more than half of their combined total for the game. They gained 87 yards on their other 21 carries for an average of 4.1 per carry.
Leaving aside the long runs, neither team rushed very effectively. Averages of 3.8 and 4.1 sound ok because three average carries still move the sticks but averages don't work that way. Those averages are enough to get some first downs but they will not sustain many long drives.
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My stats professor explained this mean/median issue by saying that he and Bill Gates (then wort about $100B and the richest man in the world) had an average net worth of $50B. It is a technically true statement but meaningless.
Similarly, Jeff Bezos is now the world's wealthiest individual with a net worth of $201B. Thus Jeff Bezos and I and nine of you have an average net worth of about $18.25B. This is true irrespective of whether the 10 of us have loads of debt and a net worth of -$50k each or if we are each worth $10M. Either way, the average for the 10 of us and Jeff Bezos is about $18.25B.
That said, consider two groups of 11 people where both groups have an average net worth of $18.25B:
- One is the aforementioned group of Bezos, nine of you, and me.
- The other is 11 people each worth between say $9-27B.
One is a group of 11 Billionaires while the other is Bezos and 10 bums.
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The stat I would most like to see added to box scores is median rush (both by player and overall). Your comment here gets at the reason. The long runs skew the average because there are almost never any counterbalancing long losses. Other than sacks (which shouldn't count in rushing stats anyway), runs for a loss are usually a loss of just one or two yards. Once in a while a sweep of some sort will get blown up for a four or five yard loss but those are rare and still isn't near as big (of a negative) as a long run can be as a positive.
The game I always think of is the 2006 #1 vs #2 edition of THE GAME. For this comparison I'm only considering runs by RB's. That leaves out four QB runs for each team (-33 yards for M, 12 yards for tOSU) and WR's (M had three of 1 8, and 12 yards).
Runs by running backs in the 2006 tOSU/M game:
- Mike Hart carried 23 times for Michigan and gained 142 yards for an average of 6.2 per carry.
- Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells carried a combined 23 times for Ohio State for 195 yards for an average of 8.5 per carry.
That makes it seem like both teams were running at will. They weren't. Both totals are substantially impacted by a few long runs:
- Mike Hart had a long of 33 and another carry that went for 30. The 63 yards gained on those two represent nearly half of his total for the game. He gained 79 yards on his other 21 carries for an average of 3.8 per carry.
- Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells had long carries of 56 and 52 yards respectively. The 108 yards gained on those two represent more than half of their combined total for the game. They gained 87 yards on their other 21 carries for an average of 4.1 per carry.
Leaving aside the long runs, neither team rushed very effectively. Averages of 3.8 and 4.1 sound ok because three average carries still move the sticks but averages don't work that way. Those averages are enough to get some first downs but they will not sustain many long drives.
That's how rushing works, though. That's why it's incorporated into my Whoa Nellie game.
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Nov 8:
1 - Georgia
2 - Ohio St
3 - Michigan
4 - TCU
5 - Tennessee
6 - Oregon
7 - LSU
8 - USC
9 - Alabama
10 - Clemson
11 - Ole Miss
12 - UCLA
13 - Utah
14 - Penn St
15 - North Carolina
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Barely beat Texas Tech, move up 3 spots. Huh!
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Updated fictional 12-team playoff:
1 - Georgia
2 - Ohio State
3 - TCU
4 - Oregon
5 - Michigan
6 - Tennessee
7 - LSU
8 - USC
9 - Alabama
10 - Clemson
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Tulane
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Tulane @ Michigan.......winner vs Oregon
Ole Miss @ Tennessee......winner vs TCU
Clemson @ LSU.....winner vs Ohio State
Alabama @ USC......winner vs Georgia
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Updated fictional 12-team playoff:
1 - Georgia
2 - Ohio State
3 - TCU
4 - Oregon
5 - Michigan
6 - Tennessee
7 - LSU
8 - USC
9 - Alabama
10 - Clemson
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Tulane
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Tulane @ Michigan.......winner vs Oregon
Ole Miss @ Tennessee......winner vs TCU
Clemson @ LSU.....winner vs Ohio State
Alabama @ USC......winner vs Georgia
Sign me up for this.
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I think most people would love it, unless the final 8 include 4-5 SEC teams.
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This is all from what happened in 2011. Final 2 teams, 2 SEC schools. Boo! Let's expand.
Final 4 teams, 2-3 are SEC+ Clemson schools Boo! Let's expand.
Final 12 teams, 4-5 SEC schools.
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Rinse, repeat.
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I think most people would love it, unless the final 8 include 4-5 SEC teams.
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This is all from what happened in 2011. Final 2 teams, 2 SEC schools. Boo! Let's expand.
Final 4 teams, 2-3 are SEC+ Clemson schools Boo! Let's expand.
Final 12 teams, 4-5 SEC schools.
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Rinse, repeat.
With the path laid out above for TN, it would more than likely end up and all SEC final again.
OM then TCU, yeah, I like it.
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A one loss PAC12 champion would be better than one loss Tennessee or the Big Ten East runner up for that matter.
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A one loss PAC12 champion would be better than one loss Tennessee or the Big Ten East runner up for that matter.
False.
With those PAC and B1G schedules who couldn’t look good?
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I don’t understand the fictional. Is that what you are projecting at the end of the season, prior to bowls?
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SEC bias pre-dates the BCS and Bowl Alliance.
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it's early
wait for it
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SEC bias pre-dates the BCS and Bowl Alliance.
The bias is playing a challenging schedule.
Ohio St. does it, and they are always rewarded for it.
Not sure why the rest of the country hasn’t caught on.
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Barely beat Texas Tech, move up 3 spots. Huh!
Lazy voters.
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The bias is playing a challenging schedule.
Ohio St. does it, and they are always rewarded for it.
Not sure why the rest of the country hasn’t caught on.
Isn't UT Martin a FCS school?
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Lazy voters.
it's all about the losses
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The bias is playing a challenging schedule.
Ohio St. does it, and they are always rewarded for it.
Not sure why the rest of the country hasn’t caught on.
yeah cause playing an ass awful Pitt team from the dogsh*t ACC that takes you to double OT so tough :043:
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I don’t understand the fictional. Is that what you are projecting at the end of the season, prior to bowls?
I think he is doing a couple things:
First, he is using the model under discussion where the top-6 league Champions and six at-large teams get in. I also *THINK* that the first round byes are reserved for league Champions.
Second, like a lot of NCAA Tournament forecasters do, he is just assuming that the highest ranked team in a league will be the league Champion. Thus, #2 tOSU is the assumed B1G Champion.
Following that logic and the existing rankings I get the following playoff seeds:
- #1 UGA (presumed SEC Champ)
- #2 tOSU (presumed B1G Champ)
- #4 TCU (presumed B12 Champ)
- #6 Oregon (presumed P12 Champ)
- #3 Michigan, at large
- #5 Tennessee, at large
- #7 LSU, at large
- #8 USC, at large
- #9 Bama, at large
- #10 Clemson (presumed ACC Champ)
- #11 Ole Miss, at large
- #17 Tulane (presumed tallest midget)
So then the match-ups in the first round are hosted by the #5-8 seeds:
- Tulane at Michigan
- Ole Miss at Tennessee
- Clemson at LSU
- Bama at USC
However, I thought the model under discussion reseeded after the first round. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part because I think it should.
If it doesn't, it is simple, you get the second round matchups that @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) laid out:
- Tulane/Michigan vs Oregon
- Ole Miss/Tennessee vs TCU
- Clemson/LSU vs tOSU
- Bama/USC vs UGA
However, if we reseed then we cannot determine the second round games until we know the first round results.
Looking at your team's game as an example:
- If Michigan wins they'll be the #3 seed and play the #6 seed.
- If Tulane upsets Michigan in the Big House they'll be the #8 seed and play UGA.
So let's say the winners are the four home teams. (SIDE NOTE FOR @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) and other SEC fans, the result of the Bama/USC game is irrelevant as far as seeding/match-ups go because they are #8/9 and thus interchangeable so you can just mentally replace "USC" with "Bama" to get the version where Bama wins out in LA) The second round games would be:
- UGA vs USC
- tOSU vs LSU
- Michigan vs Oregon
- TCU vs Tennessee
But note that one upset can change all four games. If Tulane upsets Michigan we get:
- UGA vs Tulane
- tOSU vs USC
- TCU vs LSU
- Tennessee vs Oregon
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yeah cause playing an ass awful Pitt team from the dogsh*t ACC that takes you to double OT so tough :043:
Almost as awful as your conference schedule.
May not want to mention OOC schedules, if you are a Michigan guy. :57:
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Isn't UT Martin a FCS school?
UT-Knoxville was, for the past decade or so.
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Until you're an upper-echelon helmet school, you should subscribe to the Bill Snyder School of Easy Scheduling.
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I think he is doing a couple things:
First, he is using the model under discussion where the top-6 league Champions and six at-large teams get in. I also *THINK* that the first round byes are reserved for league Champions.
Second, like a lot of NCAA Tournament forecasters do, he is just assuming that the highest ranked team in a league will be the league Champion. Thus, #2 tOSU is the assumed B1G Champion.
Following that logic and the existing rankings I get the following playoff seeds:
- #1 UGA (presumed SEC Champ)
- #2 tOSU (presumed B1G Champ)
- #4 TCU (presumed B12 Champ)
- #6 Oregon (presumed P12 Champ)
- #3 Michigan, at large
- #5 Tennessee, at large
- #7 LSU, at large
- #8 USC, at large
- #9 Bama, at large
- #10 Clemson (presumed ACC Champ)
- #11 Ole Miss, at large
- #17 Tulane (presumed tallest midget)
So then the match-ups in the first round are hosted by the #5-8 seeds:
- Tulane at Michigan
- Ole Miss at Tennessee
- Clemson at LSU
- Bama at USC
However, I thought the model under discussion reseeded after the first round. Maybe that was just wishful thinking on my part because I think it should.
If it doesn't, it is simple, you get the second round matchups that @OrangeAfroMan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=58) laid out:
- Tulane/Michigan vs Oregon
- Ole Miss/Tennessee vs TCU
- Clemson/LSU vs tOSU
- Bama/USC vs UGA
However, if we reseed then we cannot determine the second round games until we know the first round results.
Looking at your team's game as an example:
- If Michigan wins they'll be the #3 seed and play the #6 seed.
- If Tulane upsets Michigan in the Big House they'll be the #8 seed and play UGA.
So let's say the winners are the four home teams. (SIDE NOTE FOR @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) and other SEC fans, the result of the Bama/USC game is irrelevant as far as seeding/match-ups go because they are #8/9 and thus interchangeable so you can just mentally replace "USC" with "Bama" to get the version where Bama wins out in LA) The second round games would be:
- UGA vs USC
- tOSU vs LSU
- Michigan vs Oregon
- TCU vs Tennessee
But note that one upset can change all four games. If Tulane upsets Michigan we get:
- UGA vs Tulane
- tOSU vs USC
- TCU vs LSU
- Tennessee vs Oregon
I still like it!
Big 12 then Pac-12. Sweet.
Moonwalk into the finals and get crushed by UGA again, or give Ohio St. a good game in a probable loss.
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UT-Knoxville was, for the past decade or so.
No comment. :smiley_confused1:
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I still like it!
Big 12 then Pac-12. Sweet.
Moonwalk into the finals and get crushed by UGA again, or give Ohio St. a good game in a probable loss.
Tenneasee's path does look highly favorable but the reality is that the playoff format DOES impact the rankings. It shouldn't, but it does. The best example is the very first year of the playoff. After the CG's Florida State was 13-0, ACC Champions, and defending National Champions.
On spite of being undefeated and the defending Champions, FSU was ranked #3 behind two 1-loss league Champions.
You will never convince me that would have happened if there had only been a 2-team BCSNCG.
I think the same thing applies here. The CFP Committee has TCU at #4 not because they actually believe that TCU is the fourth best team but because they are not going to exclude an undefeated P5 Champion for a 1-loss Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU team that failed to qualify for their CG.
If you forced the committee members to lay down cash on a game between TCU and Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU none of them would take the Frogs but they still aren't excluding an undefeated P5.
Now if we actually had a 12-team playoff and TCU had a guaranteed path into it then I think TCU would be at least two spots lower.
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Suddenly LSU fans started chattering about how no 2-loss team has ever been in the playoff, how that might come to an end, and what needs to happen.
It's cute that they think if they beat Arkansas and A&M they have any chance to get past UGA in Atlanta. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.
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Suddenly LSU fans started chattering about how no 2-loss team has ever been in the playoff, how that might come to an end, and what needs to happen.
It's cute that they think if they beat Arkansas and A&M they have any chance to get past UGA in Atlanta. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.
2-loss team shouldn't get in imo. Committee did the right thing in 2016 not putting Penn State in even though they were a conference champ at 11-2. Penn State got beat down inn Ann Arbor that year even worse than LSU got beat down in Knoxville this year.
I just feel like if you have 2 losses + an absolute beat down, yeah you probably shouldn't get in. You're right though, it's probably all a moot point as Georgia looks pretty damn unbeatable.
Could definitely see LSU slipping up at Arkansas as well. Has the feelings of a let down/trap game after they just blew their load at home at night in a monster game vs BAMA. Hard for 18-22 year old kids to turn around and get locked in and focused and back up and go on the road after a monumental win like that.
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Tennessee beat LSU at LSU.
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Tennessee beat LSU at LSU.
sheesh. even worse. I think Tennessee would deserve to get in over LSU, even if they somehow squeaked by Georgia in the SEC CG. Same way a 1-loss OSU got in over a 2-loss Penn State B1G Champ in 2016.
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Tenneasee's path does look highly favorable but the reality is that the playoff format DOES impact the rankings. It shouldn't, but it does. The best example is the very first year of the playoff. After the CG's Florida State was 13-0, ACC Champions, and defending National Champions.
On spite of being undefeated and the defending Champions, FSU was ranked #3 behind two 1-loss league Champions.
You will never convince me that would have happened if there had only been a 2-team BCSNCG.
I think the same thing applies here. The CFP Committee has TCU at #4 not because they actually believe that TCU is the fourth best team but because they are not going to exclude an undefeated P5 Champion for a 1-loss Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU team that failed to qualify for their CG.
If you forced the committee members to lay down cash on a game between TCU and Tennessee/Michigan/tOSU none of them would take the Frogs but they still aren't excluding an undefeated P5.
Now if we actually had a 12-team playoff and TCU had a guaranteed path into it then I think TCU would be at least two spots lower.
Agree 100% with all this.
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sheesh. even worse. I think Tennessee would deserve to get in over LSU, even if they somehow squeaked by Georgia in the SEC CG. Same way a 1-loss OSU got in over a 2-loss Penn State B1G Champ in 2016.
Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.
Question:
Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.
Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.
Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?
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Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.
Question:
Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.
Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.
Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?
I used to ask questions like this. I don’t now.
Chances are, Oregon loses. So I’ll wait until they’re 12-1. Then I’ll look at the quality of top wins. Sending a 11-1 non-champ over a 1-loss P5 champ feels really odd to me, especially on that hasn’t lost in three months. But I’ll see how I feel when there’s a full dataset.
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Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.
Question:
Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.
Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.
Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?
Tough one, as BaB said.
Assuming Oregon wins out, maybe?? That UGA loss sticks in my mind for sure.
I'd probably go with UT there.
Now, USC could be different. They wrap up with games against Colorado, @UCLA and Notre Dame. Assuming they and Oregon win out, and USC beats Oregon in Las Vegas, I'd probably have to go with USC over UT.
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Yep. Tough sell there. Vols should go in above LSU.
Question:
Say Oregon wins out, Pac-12 Champs, 1 loss to UGA by 46 pts on a "neutral" field.
Say Tennessee wins out, Not SEC champs, 1 loss to UGA by 14 pts in Athens (Yes, the game wasn't that close, but could be irrelevant ... the numbers are what they are) Also, a much tougher SOS and SOR.
Do you put Oregon in over Tennessee?
I would for a few reasons:
- You acknowledged this by putting neutral in quotes, but I don't consider a game between Oregon and Georgia that was played in Atlanta, Georgia to actually be neutral.
- Oregon's record would be 1/2 game better than Tennessee (12-1 vs 11-1), and that extra game would be a CG that would be a relatively tough game. It probably wouldn't completely close the gap between Oregon's and Tennessee's schedules but it would make it a lot closer.
- The committee is specifically instructed to give weight to league championships. In the history of the CFP, no P5 Champion has ever been excluded in favor of a non-Champion with the same number of losses.
- Tennessee's loss wasn't all that much better than Oregon's. It was closer but neither team was really in striking distance anytime after the halftime show.
On point #3, only six teams have made the CFP without winning their P5 league:
- 11-1 tOSU in 2016: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 Oklahoma team that tOSU beat by three TD's on Oklahoma's field and an 11-2 PSU team that beat tOSU by a FG at home but lost to a mediocre (8-5) Pitt team and got curb-stomped by Michigan.
- 11-1 Bama in 2017: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 tOSU team that lost at home to Oklahoma and got drilled on the road by a mediocre (8-5) Iowa team and an 11-2 USC team that lost to a good (9-4) WSU and got drilled by Notre Dame.
- 12-0 Notre Dame in 2018: the P5 Champs left out were a 12-1 tOSU team that got drilled on the road by a mediocre (6-7) Purdue and a three-loss Washington team.
- 10-1 Notre Dame in 2020: in this goofy Covid year the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the B12 and P12.
- 12-1 Georgia in 2021
- 13-0 Cincinnati in 2021: the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the ACC and B12 and a 3-loss P12 Champ.
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I would for a few reasons:
- You acknowledged this by putting neutral in quotes, but I don't consider a game between Oregon and Georgia that was played in Atlanta, Georgia to actually be neutral.
- Oregon's record would be 1/2 game better than Tennessee (12-1 vs 11-1), and that extra game would be a CG that would be a relatively tough game. It probably wouldn't completely close the gap between Oregon's and Tennessee's schedules but it would make it a lot closer.
- The committee is specifically instructed to give weight to league championships. In the history of the CFP, no P5 Champion has ever been excluded in favor of a non-Champion with the same number of losses.
- Tennessee's loss wasn't all that much better than Oregon's. It was closer but neither team was really in striking distance anytime after the halftime show.
On point #3, only six teams have made the CFP without winning their P5 league:
- 11-1 tOSU in 2016: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 Oklahoma team that tOSU beat by three TD's on Oklahoma's field and an 11-2 PSU team that beat tOSU by a FG at home but lost to a mediocre (8-5) Pitt team and got curb-stomped by Michigan.
- 11-1 Bama in 2017: the P5 Champs left out were an 11-2 tOSU team that lost at home to Oklahoma and got drilled on the road by a mediocre (8-5) Iowa team and an 11-2 USC team that lost to a good (9-4) WSU and got drilled by Notre Dame.
- 12-0 Notre Dame in 2018: the P5 Champs left out were a 12-1 tOSU team that got drilled on the road by a mediocre (6-7) Purdue and a three-loss Washington team.
- 10-1 Notre Dame in 2020: in this goofy Covid year the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the B12 and P12.
- 12-1 Georgia in 2021
- 13-0 Cincinnati in 2021: the P5 Champs left out were 2-loss teams from the ACC and B12 and a 3-loss P12 Champ.
Good write up, and good points. Hard to argue against it.
As 847 said, though, how much does the ugly 49-3 number factor into the committee's opinions? It's a Scarlet Letter, that could trump the logic you provided.
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Good write up, and good points. Hard to argue against it.
As 847 said, though, how much does the ugly 49-3 number factor into the committee's opinions? It's a Scarlet Letter, that could trump the logic you provided.
Thank you.
I agree that the nearly 50 point loss hurts Oregon but I think a mitigating factor is that it occurred on Labor Day weekend rather than Thanksgiving weekend.
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I want to add a couple things on this 11-1,Tennessee vs 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon hypothetical that @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) raised.
First, I've added in a hypothetical 11-1 tOSU/Michigan loser because they'd be in the same boat as Tennessee.
Second, I think that the above hurts TN/M/tOSU. If the committee picks either TN or the tOSU/M loser they have to defend not taking a league Champion AND the decision to pick either TN or tOSU/M. If they pick Oregon they can simply defend one proposition (league Champ trumps) and leave it at that.
Finally, here is SoS rank of the four teams per Sagrin:
- #21 Tennessee
- #32 Ohio State
- #43 Oregon
- #71 Michigan
Over the next three weeks that gap overall will tighten. Remaining opponents assuming no CG for TN/M/tOSU and a CG for Oregon:
- Tennessee has already played the meat of their schedule so their Sos will likely drop with games against USCe, Mizzou, and Vandy.
- Ohio State's SoS will drop this week (IU), hold steady next week (UMD), and improve Thanksgiving weekend (M).
- Oregon's SoS will improve each week as their last three opponents are all .500+ in the Pac and in this scenario they then go to the P12CG against yet another team that will drive their SoS up.
- Michigan's SoS will move almost exactly in tandem with tOSU's as they play UNL, IL, and tOSU.
In this hypothetical:
Problems for Tennessee:
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and not that much better.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Ohio State (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and at home.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Michigan (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent.
- SoS is a disaster due to embarrassing OOC.
- Not a P5 Chsmpion.
If Michigan had a better OOC or if tOSU was visiting Ann Arbor this year then I think the tOSU/M road loser would have a case if they lost a game close enough that HFA could reasonably explain it.
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I want to add a couple things on this 11-1,Tennessee vs 12-1 Pac Champion Oregon hypothetical that @jgvol (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1567) raised.
First, I've added in a hypothetical 11-1 tOSU/Michigan loser because they'd be in the same boat as Tennessee.
Second, I think that the above hurts TN/M/tOSU. If the committee picks either TN or the tOSU/M loser they have to defend not taking a league Champion AND the decision to pick either TN or tOSU/M. If they pick Oregon they can simply defend one proposition (league Champ trumps) and leave it at that.
Finally, here is SoS rank of the four teams per Sagrin:
- #21 Tennessee
- #32 Ohio State
- #43 Oregon
- #71 Michigan
Over the next three weeks that gap overall will tighten. Remaining opponents assuming no CG for TN/M/tOSU and a CG for Oregon:
- Tennessee has already played the meat of their schedule so their Sos will likely drop with games against USCe, Mizzou, and Vandy.
- Ohio State's SoS will drop this week (IU), hold steady next week (UMD), and improve Thanksgiving weekend (M).
- Oregon's SoS will improve each week as their last three opponents are all .500+ in the Pac and in this scenario they then go to the P12CG against yet another team that will drive their SoS up.
- Michigan's SoS will move almost exactly in tandem with tOSU's as they play UNL, IL, and tOSU.
In this hypothetical:
Problems for Tennessee:
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and not that much better.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Ohio State (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent and at home.
- Not a P5 Champion.
Problems for 11-1 Michigan (assumes a close loss)
- Loss was better than Oregon's but more recent.
- SoS is a disaster due to embarrassing OOC.
- Not a P5 Chsmpion.
If Michigan had a better OOC or if tOSU was visiting Ann Arbor this year then I think the tOSU/M road loser would have a case if they lost a game close enough that HFA could reasonably explain it.
Good analysis/breakdown again. I'm very impressed with you B1G guys' attention to details, and well thought out arguments.
One thing I still wonder about, however, is the SOS numbers. You used Sagarin, as I think you (could have been someone else) did some days back, and "we" had a debate, Drew maybe --- about the committee's SOS rankings, and where they derive them from.
Watching the CFB Playoff Show last night, they had Tenn at SOS #2, and SOR #2.
I've googled to try to find the exact metric they are using, but came up empty. The only suggestion I saw online, though not concrete, was that it was up to each committee member's interpretation. ????
Are we being kept in the dark on purpose (certainly), and if otherwise --- where/what is the metric being used?
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Pitting Bo Nix against a big-boy defense is a waste of time. That's what I'd tell the committee if I had a seat at their table.
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Good analysis/breakdown again. I'm very impressed with you B1G guys' attention to details, and well thought out arguments.
One thing I still wonder about, however, is the SOS numbers. You used Sagarin, as I think you (could have been someone else) did some days back, and "we" had a debate, Drew maybe --- about the committee's SOS rankings, and where they derive them from.
Watching the CFB Playoff Show last night, they had Tenn at SOS #2, and SOR #2.
I've googled to try to find the exact metric they are using, but came up empty. The only suggestion I saw online, though not concrete, was that it was up to each committee member's interpretation. ????
Are we being kept in the dark on purpose (certainly), and if otherwise --- where/what is the metric being used?
I use Sagrin because it is freely and easily accessible. I also think it is relatively accurate but I do kinda like Espn's SOR which more-or-less ignores differences between relative strength of bodybag weaklings.
Ie, if TN plays #100 and Ohio State plays #125 the Volunteers technically played a tougher opponent but if TN and tOSU are both legit NC Contenders then this difference is irrelevant as both should win easily.
I assume that the CFP show used ESPN's metrics because ESPN broadcasts it but my understanding is the the committee members are free to use whatever they want so they might be using ESPN or Sagrin or they might think both of those are bunk and use something none of us have heard of.
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I like that....while all bodybag weaklings* aren't the same, there is a tipping point where they go from 'possible crazy upset' to 'couldn't happen in a million years.'
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*nice phrase
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I like it
so, where's the tipping point?
Appy State?
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I like it
so, where's the tipping point?
Appy State?
Circa 2007, sure. There is a lot of overlap between the dregs of the FBS and the elites of the FCS.
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true but, according to Sagarin....... or whomever
where's the tippin point?
100?
#78?
# 69?
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62
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true but, according to Sagarin....... or whomever
where's the tippin point?
100?
#78?
# 69?
Somewhere in there
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62
a very good year
where were you?