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I thought KSU was 10-2, but otherwise I agree, except I don't think KSU isn't a bad loss.  If LSU had won, they'd be in position to make things interesting.  Instead we are all in on a system where what should be the best weekend of the season is just spoilers vs. contenders, plus like 6 meaningless games

Penn State has a better argument than Alabama.  PSU lost to undefeated B10 East Champ UM and 1 loss OSU, both top 5 teams.  Bama lost to 3 loss (soon to be 4) LSU and 2 loss Tenn.  Neither PSU or Bama has marquee wins just a bunch of wins against teams with four or more losses.  PSU at least has wins over the B10 West Champ Purdue and Mac champ Ohio.  They also tried to schedule a solid OOC against Auburn, didn't work out but can't fault them for trying to get a solid opponent.  Penn State should be the top ranked 2 loss team imo.  

Penn State has a better argument than Alabama.  PSU lost to undefeated B10 East Champ UM and 1 loss OSU, both top 5 teams.  Bama lost to 3 loss (soon to be 4) LSU and 2 loss Tenn.  Neither PSU or Bama has marquee wins just a bunch of wins against teams with four or more losses.  PSU at least has wins over the B10 West Champ Purdue and Mac champ Ohio.  They also tried to schedule a solid OOC against Auburn, didn't work out but can't fault them for trying to get a solid opponent.  Penn State should be the top ranked 2 loss team imo. 

Resume wise Penn St and Bama are really close, but I think the CFP would fall back on eye test and probably give Bama the nod.  The other thing that hurts PSU is the way they lost.  Bama got beat on the last play of the game twice on the road. 

Penn St was non competitive and got drilled by Michigan.  They played with Ohio St for 3 quarters but still ended up losing by 2 scores at home.  It’s all moot anyway. Neither are going to make it but it’s a fun discussion.

it will not shock me if Bama gets in over a one-loss TCU

Agree.  The committee wants to put Alabama in the top 4.

Agreed that it's a moot point and neither will get in, but losing to UM and OSU is no comparison to losing to LSU and Tenn.  PSU losses are much better than Mama's.  Bama had too many close wins against average teams to really suggest they are dominant this year.  Penn State's wins were all decisive with the exception of the season opener against Purdue.  I really think it's possible that Penn State may be the fourth best team in the country in this crazy season.  They just quietly took care of business outside their two losses and their game against OSU was much closer than the final score suggests.

Oh yeah, for sure.  TCU's only chance to get in is to be 13-0 undefeated conference champ.

As an Ohio State fan I'd love to be confident in that.  

Per Sagrin the contenders for the two spots (after we assume UGA and M in no matter what) are ranked:

• #2 11-1 Ohio State, regular season complete
• #4 10-2 Bama, regular season complete
• #7 12-0 TCU, vs #10 KSU Saturday at noon on ABC
• #11 11-1 USC, vs #9 Utah Friday at 8pm on Fox

Various computer rankings are going to vary, but probably not by enough to get TCU or USC anywhere close to tOSU/Bama if they lose to KSU/Utah so that suggests:

• Ohio State is in if either TCU or USC lose their CG
• Bama is in if both TCU and USC lose their CG.  

That said, the committee has stuck to "number of losses uber alles" as their guiding principle in the in/out decisions so we'll just have to wait and see if 2-loss Bama ends up ahead of 1-loss TCU if that situation arises.  

As far as TCU is concerned, I believe it's a moot point.  I expect the frogs to win, and probably pretty comfortably.

I haven't watched USC and don't know anything about them or their competition, so can't really comment.

What I've seen of USC has confirmed what I've read.  That Heisman-to-be QB of theirs is freaking amazing but overall they are basically the opposite of Iowa.  USC's offense is SO GOOD that they are a potential threat to beat anyone because they just might score on every possession.  At the same time they have upset potential pretty much every week because they just might give up points on every opposition possession.