Obviously the new CFP rankings will not come out until Tuesday evening so I'm working from the AP poll here but this is my take:
Teams that control their own destiny:
- #1, 11-0 Georgia (vs GaTech, vs #6 LSU in SECCG)
- #2, 11-0 Ohio State (vs #3 M, then if they win, vsB1G-W Champ* in B1GCG)
- #3, 11-0 Michigan (at #2 tOSU, then if they win, vs B1G-W Champ* in B1GCG)
- #4, 11-0 TCU (vsISU, vs B12^ in B12CG)
- #5, 10-1 USC (vs#13 ND, vs P12~ in P12CG)
I think that is it.
*B1G-W Champ is likely Iowa but possibly Purdue or Illinois.
^B12CG opponent for TCU is likely #15 KSU but possibly #24 Texas.
~P12CG opponent for USC is likely #10 Oregon but possibly #12 Washington or #14 Utah.
Teams that have some plausible chance but need some help to get there:
- #6, 9-2 LSU (ataTm, vs #1 UGA in SECCG)
- #7, 10-1 Clemson (vs USCe, vs #18 UNC in ACCCG)
Frankly, I think that is it. The reason is that there are a few backstops here even if things go completely haywire:
The first backstop is the one closest to home, the tOSU/M loser will be 11-1 with a good loss (how good depends on score) and the tOSU/M winner can do no worse than 12-1. That pretty clearly relegates all the 2-loss teams that can't win their leagues to being behind both regardless of what happens in THE GAME and the B1GCG.
The second backstop is the SEC. Even in a crazy world where everything goes haywire UGA could do no worse than 11-2 and if they did that bad then LSU could do no worse than 10-3 and SEC Champs. One of those teams would be in even ahead of 2-loss TN and Bama.
The final backstops are the ACC, PAC, and B12. The worst case scenario for the ACC is for Clemson to lose out and finish 10-3 and not Champs but that would mean that UNC would be no worse than 10-3 and ACC Champs. The worst case scenario for the PAC is for USC to lose out and finish 10-3 and not Champs but that would mean that Oregon, Utah, or Washington was at least 10-3 and PAC Champs. The worst case scenario for the B12 would be for TCU to lose out and finish 11-2 and not Champs but that would mean either that KSU was 10-3 and B12 Champs or that Texas was 9-4 and B12 Champs.
Realistically those worst-case-scenarios aren't all going to happen so I think that the craziest plausible scenario still ends up with four from among the above seven.
I think the biggest reasonably plausible curveball is what happens if LSU upsets UGA in the SECCG. Assuming that LSU wins at aTm this weekend and that UGA beats their instate rival then the two CFP contenders from the SEC would be:
- 12-1 non-Champion UGA. Notable wins over #9 TN and #10 Oregon, just lost to
- 11-2 SEC Champion LSU. Notable wins over then #1 UGA, current #8 Bama, and current #20 Ole Miss, losses to current #9 TN and current #16 FSU.
What would the committee do there? In a somewhat similar situation in the past the committee took 11-1 Bama without a league title in 2017 but note that the SEC Champion that year (Georgia) also got in so they didn't take Bama in lieu of the SEC Champ, they took them along with the SEC Champion. In another somewhat similar situation in 2016 the committee took 11-1 tOSU without a league title over 11-2 PSU which had beaten the Buckeyes H2H. There are, however, some notable differences. In that situation the Buckeyes had lost to PSU in a close game on the road in mid-October. In this case the H2H result would be immediately before the final rankings. Also, PSU's two losses were marginally worse than LSU's would be in this hypothetical. PSU lost to a .500 Pitt team and got hammered by a Michigan team that finished 10-2. LSU lost to an FSU team that is now 8-3 and #16 and got hammered by a Tennessee team likely to finish 10-2.
If TCU or USC loses this is simple for the committee. They'll take both LSU and UGA but if tOSU/M and TCU are both 13-0 and USC is 12-1 including winning their last three against ranked teams:
- Then #16 UCLA on the "road"
- Then #13 ND at home
- Then #~10 Oregon in P12CG
I just can't see the committee leaving USC out. Thus the committee would be forced to choose between 12-1 non-Champion UGA and 11-2 SEC Champion LSU. That is an interesting conundrum.
There is absolutely a path for the B1G to put two teams in the CFP. Consider these not all that unlikely possibilities:
- UGA wins out, finishes 13-0 thus giving LSU a third loss.
- TCU wins out, finishes 13-0.
- Clemson loses either to USCe this week or to UNC next week in the ACCCG to finish 11-2.
- USC loses this week to ND.
- The tOSU/M winner wins the B1GCG to finish 13-0.
Georgia, the tOSU/M winner, and TCU are obviously in at 13-0 each and they get the top-3 seeds. The contenders for the remaining spot are:
- 11-1 tOSU/M loser.
- 11-2 ACC Champion Clemson or UNC both of which lost to a ND team that tOSU beat.
- 11-2 P12 Champion either USC or Oregon. It is either USC with a loss to a ND team that tOSU beat or Oregon which got hammered by UGA.
- 10-2 non-champion from the SEC (TN, Bama)
- 10-2 Penn State which lost H2H to both tOSU and M and has a worse record.
At least so far in the CFP era the committee has followed a "losses uber alles" model in making their in/out distinctions. Every CFP team has been either undefeated or had only one loss. I think they might make an exception for a 2-loss SEC Champion that just knocked off the #1 team but I don't think they are going to make an exception for a 2-loss ACC or PAC Champion that lost recently and wasn't all that highly ranked before that.
