CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 21, 2022, 01:54:21 PM
-
Obviously the new CFP rankings will not come out until Tuesday evening so I'm working from the AP poll here but this is my take:
Teams that control their own destiny:
- #1, 11-0 Georgia (vs GaTech, vs #6 LSU in SECCG)
- #2, 11-0 Ohio State (vs #3 M, then if they win, vsB1G-W Champ* in B1GCG)
- #3, 11-0 Michigan (at #2 tOSU, then if they win, vs B1G-W Champ* in B1GCG)
- #4, 11-0 TCU (vsISU, vs B12^ in B12CG)
- #5, 10-1 USC (vs#13 ND, vs P12~ in P12CG)
I think that is it.
*B1G-W Champ is likely Iowa but possibly Purdue or Illinois.
^B12CG opponent for TCU is likely #15 KSU but possibly #24 Texas.
~P12CG opponent for USC is likely #10 Oregon but possibly #12 Washington or #14 Utah.
Teams that have some plausible chance but need some help to get there:
- #6, 9-2 LSU (ataTm, vs #1 UGA in SECCG)
- #7, 10-1 Clemson (vs USCe, vs #18 UNC in ACCCG)
Frankly, I think that is it. The reason is that there are a few backstops here even if things go completely haywire:
The first backstop is the one closest to home, the tOSU/M loser will be 11-1 with a good loss (how good depends on score) and the tOSU/M winner can do no worse than 12-1. That pretty clearly relegates all the 2-loss teams that can't win their leagues to being behind both regardless of what happens in THE GAME and the B1GCG.
The second backstop is the SEC. Even in a crazy world where everything goes haywire UGA could do no worse than 11-2 and if they did that bad then LSU could do no worse than 10-3 and SEC Champs. One of those teams would be in even ahead of 2-loss TN and Bama.
The final backstops are the ACC, PAC, and B12. The worst case scenario for the ACC is for Clemson to lose out and finish 10-3 and not Champs but that would mean that UNC would be no worse than 10-3 and ACC Champs. The worst case scenario for the PAC is for USC to lose out and finish 10-3 and not Champs but that would mean that Oregon, Utah, or Washington was at least 10-3 and PAC Champs. The worst case scenario for the B12 would be for TCU to lose out and finish 11-2 and not Champs but that would mean either that KSU was 10-3 and B12 Champs or that Texas was 9-4 and B12 Champs.
Realistically those worst-case-scenarios aren't all going to happen so I think that the craziest plausible scenario still ends up with four from among the above seven.
I think the biggest reasonably plausible curveball is what happens if LSU upsets UGA in the SECCG. Assuming that LSU wins at aTm this weekend and that UGA beats their instate rival then the two CFP contenders from the SEC would be:
- 12-1 non-Champion UGA. Notable wins over #9 TN and #10 Oregon, just lost to
- 11-2 SEC Champion LSU. Notable wins over then #1 UGA, current #8 Bama, and current #20 Ole Miss, losses to current #9 TN and current #16 FSU.
What would the committee do there? In a somewhat similar situation in the past the committee took 11-1 Bama without a league title in 2017 but note that the SEC Champion that year (Georgia) also got in so they didn't take Bama in lieu of the SEC Champ, they took them along with the SEC Champion. In another somewhat similar situation in 2016 the committee took 11-1 tOSU without a league title over 11-2 PSU which had beaten the Buckeyes H2H. There are, however, some notable differences. In that situation the Buckeyes had lost to PSU in a close game on the road in mid-October. In this case the H2H result would be immediately before the final rankings. Also, PSU's two losses were marginally worse than LSU's would be in this hypothetical. PSU lost to a .500 Pitt team and got hammered by a Michigan team that finished 10-2. LSU lost to an FSU team that is now 8-3 and #16 and got hammered by a Tennessee team likely to finish 10-2.
If TCU or USC loses this is simple for the committee. They'll take both LSU and UGA but if tOSU/M and TCU are both 13-0 and USC is 12-1 including winning their last three against ranked teams:
- Then #16 UCLA on the "road"
- Then #13 ND at home
- Then #~10 Oregon in P12CG
I just can't see the committee leaving USC out. Thus the committee would be forced to choose between 12-1 non-Champion UGA and 11-2 SEC Champion LSU. That is an interesting conundrum.
There is absolutely a path for the B1G to put two teams in the CFP. Consider these not all that unlikely possibilities:
- UGA wins out, finishes 13-0 thus giving LSU a third loss.
- TCU wins out, finishes 13-0.
- Clemson loses either to USCe this week or to UNC next week in the ACCCG to finish 11-2.
- USC loses this week to ND.
- The tOSU/M winner wins the B1GCG to finish 13-0.
Georgia, the tOSU/M winner, and TCU are obviously in at 13-0 each and they get the top-3 seeds. The contenders for the remaining spot are:
- 11-1 tOSU/M loser.
- 11-2 ACC Champion Clemson or UNC both of which lost to a ND team that tOSU beat.
- 11-2 P12 Champion either USC or Oregon. It is either USC with a loss to a ND team that tOSU beat or Oregon which got hammered by UGA.
- 10-2 non-champion from the SEC (TN, Bama)
- 10-2 Penn State which lost H2H to both tOSU and M and has a worse record.
At least so far in the CFP era the committee has followed a "losses uber alles" model in making their in/out distinctions. Every CFP team has been either undefeated or had only one loss. I think they might make an exception for a 2-loss SEC Champion that just knocked off the #1 team but I don't think they are going to make an exception for a 2-loss ACC or PAC Champion that lost recently and wasn't all that highly ranked before that.
-
Really can't see a one-loss PAC champ USC being left out.
If they and TCU keep winning it's a pretty clear picture. It seems to be generally accepted that even if UGA lost the CCG they'd still make the playoffs. It's a moot point...LSU isn't going to beat UGA, so prognostications can start to clear the picture by crossing them off the list.
-
The utter mayhem possibility (aside from the ridiculous):
OSU/UM get beat by Iowa somehow (OK, bordering on ridiculous)
UGA loses to LSU who lost to A&M
USC loses to Oregon
TCU loses twice
UNC and/or USCe beat Clemson
....
(I can't quite see a UGA loss to Tech, but Tech did beat UNC on the road ....)
UM/OSU loser is 11-1. The winner is 12-1. UGA is 12-1. LSU is 10-3.
-
Really can't see a one-loss PAC champ USC being left out.
Probably not but I thought it was interesting that the committee left your 9-2 Tigers at #5 with the 10-1 Trojans in the #6 slot.
Your Tigers, of course, have a sub .500 Aggie team this weekend while the Trojans have #15 Notre Dame. Assuming they both win there will be two things to look for in the pre-CG rankings:
- Does the tOSU/M loser drop below neither, one, or both? My guess is both.
- Does USC leapfrog LSU on the basis of beating #15 while LSU is playing the most talented seven-loss team in America?
If LSU is still ahead of USC after next weekend then you have to assume that they control their own destiny. I can't imagine the committee dropping LSU behind USC in a week in which LSU knocks off #1.
That certainly creates an interesting possibility that the ACC and PAC would HOWL over. Assume:
- UGA beats GaTech, loses to LSU, finishes 12-1
- tOSU or #3 M wins B1GCG
- M, see above
- TCU wins out, finishes 13-0
- LSU wins out, finishes 11-2
- USC wins out, finishes 12-1
- Bama beats Auburn, finishes 10-2
- Clemson wins out, finishes 12-1
Unless USC jumps LSU this week, I think the final rankings would be:
- 13-0 tOSU/M winner, B1G Champ
- 13-0 TCU, B12 Champ
- 11-2 LSU, SEC Champ
- 12-1 UGA
- 12-1 USC, P12 Champ
- 11-1 tOSU/M loser
- 12-1 Clemson, ACC Champ
- 10-2 Bama
-
Probably not but I thought it was interesting that the committee left your 9-2 Tigers at #5 with the 10-1 Trojans in the #6 slot.
For the same reason they have Bama over Clemson.....the lower-ranked team hasn't earned they way above the other one YET.
With wins vs ND and the PACCG, USC will leapfrog LSU. With wins over USCe and the ACCCG, Clemson will leapfrog Bama.
.
LSU and Bama are basically placeholders right now. That way, the committee can say they're only ranking teams based on what they've done.
-
For the same reason they have Bama over Clemson.....the lower-ranked team hasn't earned they way above the other one YET.
With wins vs ND and the PACCG, USC will leapfrog LSU. With wins over USCe and the ACCCG, Clemson will leapfrog Bama.
.
LSU and Bama are basically placeholders right now. That way, the committee can say they're only ranking teams based on what they've done.
I get it and mostly agree, but I absolutely do NOT think that LSU would get leapfrogged by USC if they both win their CG.
I see the logic. At that point both would be P5 Champs and USC would have a better record but if LSU is better than USC before LSU knocks off #1 UGA, how could they not be better than USC after they knock off #1 UGA?
-
Oh, I was assuming we were living in reality where UGA stomps LSU. The Tigers are very ordinary. UGA is doing what a lot of returning champs tend to do: play to their competition level.
-
Oh, I was assuming we were living in reality where UGA stomps LSU. The Tigers are very ordinary. UGA is doing what a lot of returning champs tend to do: play to their competition level.
Like you, I assume that UGA will beat LSU but if that is the case then there is no need to discuss the Tigers as a three-loss non-Champion is not getting anywhere close to the CFP.
LSU is only in the conversation IF we assume that they win out and finish as SEC Champions at 11-2.
I didn't mean this post as "What Medina thinks will happen." That is simple and not worthy of a lot of discussion, I think the first two CFP spots will go to:
- 13-0 SEC Champ UGA
- 13-0 B1G Champ tOSU/M
The other two, IMHO will go to in order of precedence:
- 13-0 TCU
- 12-1 USC
- 12-1 Clemson
- 11-1 tOSU/M
-
Now what?
-
It'll just be from the teams ahead of Alabama. They're the first one left out, no matter what.
If UM is upset in the B1GCG, they'd still get in over Bama or OSU.
If TCU lost, they wouldn't fall past Bama, and it'd be between TCU or OSU.
If USC lost, they'd be out, but OSU would be in.
-
- 13-0 SEC Champ UGA
- 13-0 B1G Champ TTUN
- 13-0 B12 Champ TCU
- 12-1 P12 Champ USC
In Waiting for 3 or 4 to stumble
5. 10-1 B10 Bridesmaid OSU
I think if Georgia or TTUN loss in the CCG they still make it in over OSU.
-
- 13-0 SEC Champ UGA
- 13-0 B1G Champ TTUN
- 13-0 B12 Champ TCU
- 12-1 P12 Champ USC
In Waiting for 3 or 4 to stumble
5. 10-1 B10 Bridesmaid OSU
I think if Georgia or TTUN loss in the CCG they still make it in over OSU.
I agree with this. My only question would be if both TCU and USC lose. 1 loss non champ TCU? 2 loss non champ Alabama? 2 loss champ Kansas State?
-
The Utes already beat USC once.
-
I think this might be the least drama we've ever had with CG's in the CFP era.
There is not a single CG where both teams have a chance.
The ACCCG has zero CFP implications. UNC has three losses, Clemson has two, and both lost to ND by multiple scores which hurts them because tOSU is basically the first team out with only one loss (to a better team than either Clemson or UNC played) and a two-score win over Notre Dame.
One team in each of the other four P5CG's is either in, or would be with a win. The "other" team in the four CG's is:
- 3-loss Utah
- 3-loss LSU
- 4-loss Purdue
- 3-loss KSU
Of the ten P5CG participants six have no shot at the CFP and at least two (UGA, M) are in regardless.
That only leaves TCU and USC.
USC is obvious, they are in with a win and out with a loss.
TCU with a loss is the only borderline case. With a loss they'd have a 1/2 game better record than tOSU but neither would be a league Champ and tOSU was substantially more dominant overall in wins. It might come down to the loss. TCU's loss (KSU) would obviously not be as good of an opponent but tOSU lost by 22 so there is a lot of room for TCU to potentially lose closer.
OTOH, the committee has frequently talked "game control" and from that perspective tOSU's loss wasn't all that bad. The Buckeyes led at halftime and were within one score until half way through the fourth quarter. That isn't the same thing as a game where people are changing the channel early in the third quarter.
So my take:
- In no matter what: UGA, M
- In with a win, out with a loss: USC
- Definitely in with a win, possibly in with a loss, might depend on the margin: TCU
- Needs a USC loss or a TCU loss (but a TCU loss might not be enough unless it is a blowout : tOSU
That just leaves this:
I agree with this. My only question would be if both TCU and USC lose. 1 loss non champ TCU? 2 loss non champ Alabama? 2 loss champ Kansas State?
KSU has three losses not two and one of them was to Tulane so they aren't a contender.
The USC loss gets tOSU in so at that point your top three are:
- Georgia (would drop to #2 with a loss and a M win)
- Michigan (would jump to #1 with a win and a UGA loss)
- tOSU
Contenders for #4:
- 12-1 B12CG loser TCU
- 11-2 ACC Champ Clemson (assuming they beat UNC)
- 10-2 Bama
The committee has consistently shown a preference for fewest losses so I think TCU gets the #4 slot even with a bad loss.
-
I thought KSU was 10-2, but otherwise I agree, except I don't think KSU isn't a bad loss. If LSU had won, they'd be in position to make things interesting. Instead we are all in on a system where what should be the best weekend of the season is just spoilers vs. contenders, plus like 6 meaningless games
-
Imagine the meaninglessness with the 12-team playoff.....
-
Penn State has a better argument than Alabama. PSU lost to undefeated B10 East Champ UM and 1 loss OSU, both top 5 teams. Bama lost to 3 loss (soon to be 4) LSU and 2 loss Tenn. Neither PSU or Bama has marquee wins just a bunch of wins against teams with four or more losses. PSU at least has wins over the B10 West Champ Purdue and Mac champ Ohio. They also tried to schedule a solid OOC against Auburn, didn't work out but can't fault them for trying to get a solid opponent. Penn State should be the top ranked 2 loss team imo.
-
Imagine the meaninglessness with the 12-team playoff.....
Yep. It will get to the point coaches are resting starters in CCG games.
-
Penn State has a better argument than Alabama. PSU lost to undefeated B10 East Champ UM and 1 loss OSU, both top 5 teams. Bama lost to 3 loss (soon to be 4) LSU and 2 loss Tenn. Neither PSU or Bama has marquee wins just a bunch of wins against teams with four or more losses. PSU at least has wins over the B10 West Champ Purdue and Mac champ Ohio. They also tried to schedule a solid OOC against Auburn, didn't work out but can't fault them for trying to get a solid opponent. Penn State should be the top ranked 2 loss team imo.
Resume wise Penn St and Bama are really close, but I think the CFP would fall back on eye test and probably give Bama the nod. The other thing that hurts PSU is the way they lost. Bama got beat on the last play of the game twice on the road.
Penn St was non competitive and got drilled by Michigan. They played with Ohio St for 3 quarters but still ended up losing by 2 scores at home. It’s all moot anyway. Neither are going to make it but it’s a fun discussion.
-
it will not shock me if Bama gets in over a one-loss TCU
-
it will not shock me if Bama gets in over a one-loss TCU
Agree. The committee wants to put Alabama in the top 4.
-
the Big 12 is gonna encourage the officiating crew to have a few calls go with the Horned Frogs, but if the Wildkitties get on a roll and win by a couple TDs, the committee has their opportunity
-
Agreed that it's a moot point and neither will get in, but losing to UM and OSU is no comparison to losing to LSU and Tenn. PSU losses are much better than Mama's. Bama had too many close wins against average teams to really suggest they are dominant this year. Penn State's wins were all decisive with the exception of the season opener against Purdue. I really think it's possible that Penn State may be the fourth best team in the country in this crazy season. They just quietly took care of business outside their two losses and their game against OSU was much closer than the final score suggests.
-
it will not shock me if Bama gets in over a one-loss TCU
Oh yeah, for sure. TCU's only chance to get in is to be 13-0 undefeated conference champ.
-
Oh yeah, for sure. TCU's only chance to get in is to be 13-0 undefeated conference champ.
As an Ohio State fan I'd love to be confident in that.
Per Sagrin the contenders for the two spots (after we assume UGA and M in no matter what) are ranked:
- #2 11-1 Ohio State, regular season complete
- #4 10-2 Bama, regular season complete
- #7 12-0 TCU, vs #10 KSU Saturday at noon on ABC
- #11 11-1 USC, vs #9 Utah Friday at 8pm on Fox
Various computer rankings are going to vary, but probably not by enough to get TCU or USC anywhere close to tOSU/Bama if they lose to KSU/Utah so that suggests:
- Ohio State is in if either TCU or USC lose their CG
- Bama is in if both TCU and USC lose their CG.
That said, the committee has stuck to "number of losses uber alles" as their guiding principle in the in/out decisions so we'll just have to wait and see if 2-loss Bama ends up ahead of 1-loss TCU if that situation arises.
-
As far as TCU is concerned, I believe it's a moot point. I expect the frogs to win, and probably pretty comfortably.
I haven't watched USC and don't know anything about them or their competition, so can't really comment.
-
As far as TCU is concerned, I believe it's a moot point. I expect the frogs to win, and probably pretty comfortably.
I haven't watched USC and don't know anything about them or their competition, so can't really comment.
What I've seen of USC has confirmed what I've read. That Heisman-to-be QB of theirs is freaking amazing but overall they are basically the opposite of Iowa. USC's offense is SO GOOD that they are a potential threat to beat anyone because they just might score on every possession. At the same time they have upset potential pretty much every week because they just might give up points on every opposition possession.
-
What I've seen of USC has confirmed what I've read. That Heisman-to-be QB of theirs is freaking amazing but overall they are basically the opposite of Iowa. USC's offense is SO GOOD that they are a potential threat to beat anyone because they just might score on every possession. At the same time they have upset potential pretty much every week because they just might give up points on every opposition possession.
So sounds like a typical Lincoln Riley team, then.
-
I see Sagarin is still spitting out rankings that make no sense.
TCU goes 12-0 against what Sagarin rates as the 21 SOS and is ranked 7th.
Ohio St goes 11-1 against what he rates as the 44 SOS and is ranked 2nd.
Sure.
-
I see Sagarin is still spitting out rankings that make no sense.
TCU goes 12-0 against what Sagarin rates as the 21 SOS and is ranked 7th.
Ohio St goes 11-1 against what he rates as the 44 SOS and is ranked 2nd.
Sure.
computers are for nerds. football is for men. fk sagarin and his bullsh*t stupid rankings.
-
Ifiguyrethisstuffnowisclikebait.Thespacebarisn'tworkingonthismotelcomputer.
-
I see Sagarin is still spitting out rankings that make no sense.
TCU goes 12-0 against what Sagarin rates as the 21 SOS and is ranked 7th.
Ohio St goes 11-1 against what he rates as the 44 SOS and is ranked 2nd.
Sure.
It's process vs outcomes.
OSU blows people out. Until last week, TCU didn't.
It's about looking at more than the score.
How dare he.
-
UGA "should" win over LSU, even though they are looking rather mortal. Michigan should win rather easily. TCU has a solid chance to win, but might not. That makes three, then USC, IF ...
USC is looking rather solid I think, they might jump TCU. For a four team playoff, that is two real blue bloods, one sort of next tier team, and a long shot team, so it has everything if that happens to get ratings.
I mean win in the CG above.
Of course about this time mayhem strikes.
-
UGA "should" win over LSU, even though they are looking rather mortal. Michigan should win rather easily. TCU has a solid chance to win, but might not. That makes three, then USC, IF ...
USC is looking rather solid I think, they might jump TCU. For a four team playoff, that is two real blue bloods, one sort of next tier team, and a long shot team, so it has everything if that happens to get ratings.
I mean win in the CG above.
Of course about this time mayhem strikes.
I can't really see any scenario where USC jumps TCU if TCU is undefeated conference champs.
TCU has to play Kansas State- a team they've already beaten. Hard to beat a team twice in the same season.
USC has to play Utah- a team they lost to. The only team they lost to actually. Have to like USC's chances to get vengeance- 'cause it's damn hard to beat a team twice in the same season.
-
I can't really see any scenario where USC jumps TCU if TCU is undefeated conference champs.
the scenario is if the Network honks want the first round matchups to align for maximum ratings
-
Teams usually win the rematch also, in history, when they occur. Basically it's tough to beat a very good opponent, once or twice, it makes little difference.
I "think" USC might go to 3. They have more impressive wins I think and an avenged loss.
-
I can't really see any scenario where USC jumps TCU if TCU is undefeated conference champs.
TCU has to play Kansas State- a team they've already beaten. Hard to beat a team twice in the same season.
USC has to play Utah- a team they lost to. The only team they lost to actually. Have to like USC's chances to get vengeance- 'cause it's damn hard to beat a team twice in the same season.
and here we see the stupidity of the Big 12 having a CCG when they play a round robin
if no CCG TCU is in the playoffs if TCU doesnt win they are out
-
the scenario is if the Network honks want the first round matchups to align for maximum ratings
Yeah, USC isn't going to "jump" TCU in the sense that they would edge out a 13-0 undefeated B12 conference champ and knock them out of the CFP, but if both USC and TCU get into the CFP, then the Trojans could certainly jump them in the standings in order for ESPN to arrange their preferred matchups for TV ratings in the semifinals.
-
Yeah, USC isn't going to "jump" TCU in the sense that they would edge out a 13-0 undefeated B12 conference champ and knock them out of the CFP, but if both USC and TCU get into the CFP, then the Trojans could certainly jump them in the standings in order for ESPN to arrange their preferred matchups for TV ratings in the semifinals.
Good point
I think youre right
-
We are both right
-
Assuming TCU or USC loses the powers that be will stick Alabama 10-2 in the top 4. And it won't be at #4 if Georgia is still #1.
-
and here we see the stupidity of the Big 12 having a CCG when they play a round robin
if no CCG TCU is in the playoffs if TCU doesnt win they are out
the benefit is if TCU needed another "good" win to get in the #4 spot
this season they don't
if clemson and USC were undefeated or if Bama had only one loss, TCU would benefit from the CCG
-
Assuming TCU or USC loses the powers that be will stick Alabama 10-2 in the top 4. And it won't be at #4 if Georgia is still #1.
yup, Bama would jump in at #3 and play Michigan
-
yup, Bama would jump in at #3 and play Michigan
If they wanted to avoid the perception problem of ranking a 2-loss Alabama at #3 ahead of 13-0 conference champ TCU at #4, they could always drop Georgia to #2 and put Michigan at #1. They're autonomous and don't NEED to justify their rankings to anyone, but for some reason they always like to talk about their made-up shit anyway, so I suppose the language we'd hear is that Michigan was super-impressive in beating a previously undefeated Ohio State to end the regular season, while Georgia merely beat a now 4-loss LSU team for an easy layup in the SEC CCG.
It doesn't matter whether or not any of that is true. ESPN's selection committee has a long history of lies, hypocrisy, and stupid rationalizations for justifying its rankings.
-
and here we see the stupidity of the Big 12 having a CCG when they play a round robin
if no CCG TCU is in the playoffs if TCU doesnt win they are out
It is a double-edged sword. If they needed another quality win then having the CG would be a humongous bonus. For example, if TCU had dropped their 2OT win over OkSU and they were sitting at 11-1 right now they'd be in significant danger of getting passed over for 11-1 tOSU or 10-2 Bama and the chance to play a borderline top-10 KSU team while tOSU and Bama are sitting at home would be beneficial.
Of course this year they are 12-0 so instead of having a "chance" to play a borderline top-10 KSU team they are forced into a no-win situation against a borderline KSU team.
-
It is a double-edged sword. If they needed another quality win then having the CG would be a humongous bonus. For example, if TCU had dropped their 2OT win over OkSU and they were sitting at 11-1 right now they'd be in significant danger of getting passed over for 11-1 tOSU or 10-2 Bama and the chance to play a borderline top-10 KSU team while tOSU and Bama are sitting at home would be beneficial.
Of course this year they are 12-0 so instead of having a "chance" to play a borderline top-10 KSU team they are forced into a no-win situation against a borderline KSU team.
I don't really see it as a double-edged sword for TCU. Any loss is going to knock them out in favor of a helmet team, so the fewer games they play, the better.
For OU or Texas, then yes there could be some benefit. But a TCU team with any loss at all, is getting skipped over in the CFP.
-
If they wanted to avoid the perception problem of ranking a 2-loss Alabama at #3 ahead of 13-0 conference champ TCU at #4, they could always drop Georgia to #2 and put Michigan at #1.
this is true, but
ESPN would rather project that the SEC SEC SEC is superior and #1 and #3 projects better
-
this is true, but
ESPN would rather project that the SEC SEC SEC is superior and #1 and #3 projects better
Well there is that.
-
Fine, but then this week happened.
It's process vs outcomes.
OSU blows people out. Until last week, TCU didn't.
It's about looking at more than the score.
How dare he.
Fine, but then this week happened. And when it’s all said and done outcomes > process. At least it should anyway.
-
If the committee were to put a 10-2 Bama over a 12-1 TCU that would be the most controversial thing they have done to date.
-
Fine, but then this week happened.Fine, but then this week happened. And when it’s all said and done outcomes > process. At least it should anyway.
Right but CFB is notoriously difficult to rank because there are so few high-level games and there is a massive difference in SoS along with the fact that there is an underlying debate as to whether it is tougher for a NC Contender to play three pretty good teams or one really good team.
You look at scores and so on because most of us don't believe that TCU has played anyone as good as Michigan. They also may not have played anyone as good as LSU or TN either. That leaves open the argument that while tOSU and Bama aren't undefeated they might be on TCU's schedule and while TCU is undefeated they might not be if they had to play Michigan, go to Baton Rouge, or go to Knoxville.
Consider the games the Frogs played that resulted in 2OT at home against OkSU or a 7 point win over Kansas or an 8 point win over SMU or a one point win over Baylor. Would those efforts have beaten Michigan, LSU, or Tennessee?
-
why would a 2 loss Alabama team be in and a 1 loss Ohio St team not
-
no reason
-
why would a 2 loss Alabama team be in and a 1 loss Ohio St team not
no reason
I agree with @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) but obviously I'm biased.
I think the argument for Bama would be that their losses were closer and on the road.
My counter to that would be a few things, chiefly:
- Ohio State's loss was to a better, playoff bound team.
- If you are going to argue that Bama's losses were closer I think it is only fair to consider close wins as well. Bama is two plays from 12-0 but they are also three plays from 7-5 so that cuts both ways. Ohio State's loss wasn't as close but the Buckeyes have zero one-score wins.
-
Right but CFB is notoriously difficult to rank because there are so few high-level games and there is a massive difference in SoS along with the fact that there is an underlying debate as to whether it is tougher for a NC Contender to play three pretty good teams or one really good team.
You look at scores and so on because most of us don't believe that TCU has played anyone as good as Michigan. They also may not have played anyone as good as LSU or TN either. That leaves open the argument that while tOSU and Bama aren't undefeated they might be on TCU's schedule and while TCU is undefeated they might not be if they had to play Michigan, go to Baton Rouge, or go to Knoxville.
Consider the games the Frogs played that resulted in 2OT at home against OkSU or a 7 point win over Kansas or an 8 point win over SMU or a one point win over Baylor. Would those efforts have beaten Michigan, LSU, or Tennessee?
My problem is simply this. By Sagarin’s own metrics TCU has a better record against tougher schedules than either Ohio St or Bama played, yet he still has TCU ranked behind them.
Now, would I take take Bama or Ohio St over TCU on a neutral field? Yes. But I also would have taken Ohio St to win at home against Michigan. They got beat by 19. Sagarin still has Michigan behind Ohio St. At some point the results have to trump what we think.
-
computers think differently
the committee might think differently
-
My problem is simply this. By Sagarin’s own metrics TCU has a better record against tougher schedules than either Ohio St or Bama played, yet he still has TCU ranked behind them.
Now, would I take take Bama or Ohio St over TCU on a neutral field? Yes. But I also would have taken Ohio St to win at home against Michigan. They got beat by 19. Sagarin still has Michigan behind Ohio St. At some point the results have to trump what we think.
I know it sounds self-serving since it is my team but I mentioned upthread that there is a fundamental underlying debate as to whether it is tougher to play three pretty good teams or one really good team.
By Sagarin’s rankings TCU is undefeated with their best opponent being #8 Texas. Ohio State is also undefeated against teams ranked #8 and below plus the Buckeyes have a two-score win over #6 Penn State.
TCU's SoS is #21 and tOSU's is #44 but the Buckeyes have played two teams ranked higher than any TCU opponent. That makes sense because the B1G is top-heavy. They have three teams in Sagarin’s top-6 and no more until #22 Illinois. The B12 is more balanced with five in the top-20 but nobody as good as the B1G's big three. The top five B12 teams per Sagrin are:
- #7 TCU
- #8 Texas
- #10 KSU
- #19 Oklahoma
- #20 Baylor
Ohio State doesn't have any wins over teams ranked in the top-5 (0-1) but neither does TCU (0-0).
Finally, and I really should have just left it at this:
Now, would I take take Bama or Ohio St over TCU on a neutral field? Yes. But I also would have taken Ohio St to win at home against Michigan. They got beat by 19. Sagarin still has Michigan behind Ohio St. At some point the results have to trump what we think.
If you yourself would take tOSU or Bama over TCU on a neutral field then what is your argument with Sagrin exactly?
-
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion. I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.
-
:sign0065:
-
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion. I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.
Well then you doing something that Sagrin isn't even attempting to do.
He is trying to come up with predictive point spreads for games. You are ranking teams based in large part on what they "deserve".
I get it. A lot of people feel that only league Champions should be considered for the CFP on the basis that you can't be the best in the nation if you aren't even the best in your own league.
That is a whole separate debate. Sagarin’s rankings take none of that into consideration and simply rank teams based on results. My understanding is that he has formulas that attempt to account for things like garbage time points by the loser that make a result look closer than the game and late points by the winner that make a game look less close than it was.
-
Because when I rank teams I put more emphasis on results than I do my personal opinion. I feel comfortable ranking TCU ahead of Bama and Ohio St even though I think they aren’t as good.
Bama might back in losing by 4 pts vs 2 teams ranked in the top ten on the road
-
Looking at two teams, I think it is helpful to look at all of their games so here are TCU and tOSU's schedules with opponents sorted by Sagrin ranking:
(https://i.imgur.com/LnW9keq.png)
Ohio State's loss is hard to compare to TCU's schedule because TCU hasn't played anyone that good. For that matter, TCU's best opponent isn't as good as the PSU team that tOSU beat by two scores. Both teams have some clunkers that show up as outliers here but TCU has a slew of one score wins over:
- #8 Texas by 7
- #20 Baylor by 1
- #33 OkSU by 3 (in double OT)
- #55 Kansas by 7
- #57 SMU by 8
-
did you simply re-post this?
or do I have deja brew?
-
Looking at two teams, I think it is helpful to look at all of their games so here are TCU and tOSU's schedules with opponents sorted by Sagrin ranking:
(https://i.imgur.com/LnW9keq.png)
Ohio State's loss is hard to compare to TCU's schedule because TCU hasn't played anyone that good. For that matter, TCU's best opponent isn't as good as the PSU team that tOSU beat by two scores. Both teams have some clunkers that show up as outliers here but TCU has a slew of one score wins over:
- #8 Texas by 7
- #20 Baylor by 1
- #33 OkSU by 3 (in double OT)
- #55 Kansas by 7
- #57 SMU by 8
Is it that hard to compare though? You’re presenting it in a way that makes it sound like playing the 3 and 6 rated teams is miles apart from playing the 8 and 10 rated teams. I’m not sure it is.
-
It's clearly about MOV, as I suggested earlier.
There are five single-digit outcomes on that list, and they're all TCU's. It's pretty simple.
-
It's clearly about MOV, as I suggested earlier.
There are five single-digit outcomes on that list, and they're all TCU's. It's pretty simple.
No, I think you’re right. In fact, if TCU were to beat Ohio St head to head in a close game I’m not sure it would be enough to get them ahead of Ohio St in Sagarin.
Here’s my all time favorite Sagarin ranking. In 2017, Stanford finished 9-5 against the 10 SOS. USC finished 11-3 against the 11 SOS and beat Stanford not once, but twice. Final Sagarin rankings?
14. Stanford
15. USC
I’m guessing a big reason for that was Stanford out scored its opponents by 135 points and USC out scored its opponents by 92.
-
What if all five of the CCG favorites not only lose but get blown out by the underdog?
We're talking blow outs ranging in the magnitude of S Carolina over Tennessee to Georgia over Oregon here.
-
mayhem!
-
It'd be quite entertaining. I'm cool with it.
-
What if all five of the CCG favorites not only lose but get blown out by the underdog?
We're talking blow outs ranging in the magnitude of S Carolina over Tennessee to Georgia over Oregon here.
It wouldn’t matter for UGA and Michigan. They’re in. It would probably knock USC and TCU out in favor of Ohio St and Bama, which would make me sick. Sitting at home benefiting from teams losing in CCG that you couldn’t get to leaves a bad taste in my mouth. When Bama did it in 2017 I hated it.
-
If everyone loses, it's as if no one does.
-
If everyone loses, it's as if no one does.
Sure... other than the teams that don't play at all and effectively win by dodging their CCG.
-
lol
dodging?
Pull back the curtain, Oz.
-
It's the ultimate, it's better to lose early argument. You can't lose very late, if you weren't good enough to play very late
-
I've never had a reason to gripe with with SOR as a primary metric for determining participation in a postseason tournament
-
I've never had a reason to gripe with with SOR as a primary metric for determining participation in a postseason tournament
I was most proud of voters in 2014, ranking the undefeated, defending national champion Florida St 3rd, because their SOR (ie - eye test) was shaky. Alabama was like a juggernaut and Marcus Mariota was doing magic.
That might have been the peak of voting, actually.