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not necessarily what i'd pick, but i think it'd end up as oregon, texas, bama, and mich. maybe in that order, but probably:
1 - texas
2 - oregon
3 - bama
4 - mich

texas, oregon, and bama are just waiting their turns to come up after all the attrition. 

texas gets top spot for 2 reason, and they're both bama. they beat bama, which is easily the best win anyone of these 4 have, and they've already played bama and putting them 2 would make for an immediate rematch in semis. they haven't done rematches in semis yet, though they've always been recent games, as well as same conf opp, so this might not hold. but that's what i'm going with. 

oregon and bama just fall into 2-3 ncely, being p5 champs with solid sos/sor.

mich is the iffy pick, but i went with them for 2 reasons. 1, their loss comes earlier than everyone elses, and 2, they have a major win later on to leapfrog back up. uga, osu, and fsu don't have that luxury.

unfortunate for louisville and moreso iowa, they're just too far behind to make up the gap.

this is all not taking into account whatever potential penalty mich might find themselves in. should they be disqualified somehow, then i think it'd be a toss up for louisville and uga, depending on how each ccg went. i tend to lean louisville, though. having a ccg win vs another cfp contender is no small feat, and uga having failed that test in this scenario puts them just outside of the cfp.

what would i pick? probably the 3 relatively easy ones (texas, oregon, bama) and louisville, for reasons stated just above.

I think when you have four 1 loss champions its easy, I would take those 4.

I think maybe OSU/Michigan have an argument, because they only didn't go to the CCG based on a weird tiebreaker.  They went 3-0 against three West teams that were slightly worse than the three West teams PSU also went 3-0 against.

I think based on resume I'd go Oregon-Alabama-Texas-Louisville.  But do they avoid the rematch?  Probably.  And moving Alabama up to 1 and leaving a team they lost to at #3, I think what they would do is

• Texas
• Oregon
• Alabama
• Louisville

Before Indy:

PSU beats Michigan, lost to OSU - PSU 11-1
Michigan beats OSU, lost to PSU - UM 11-1
OSU beat PSU, lost to Michigan - OSU 11-1

What is the tiebreaker that gives PSU the nod here?

Tiebreaker #5, best combined record of crossover opponents.  Right now that's Penn State, by a game.  It could easily change, but it seemed easier to put actual teams in there

IMHO, the committee's criteria and not necessarily wrongly are:

• Undefeated P5 Champs
• 1-loss P5 Champs
• 1-loss P5 non-Champs

By that it is pretty easy to determine the four as four of the P5 leagues produce 1-loss Champs:

• 12-1 ACC Champion Louisville
• 12-1 B12 Champion Texas
• 12-1 P12 Champion Oregon
• 12-1 SEC Champion Alabama

IMHO, the 1-loss teams with the best arguments or at least the most sympathetic sob stories are tOSU and Michigan who both lost out on the CG on a tiebreaker that is way down the list but too bad.  To the 1-loss teams that don't get in, I'd say:

• 12-1 CG losers FSU, Washington, and Georgia:  I'd say too bad, win your CG.  
• 11-1 tOSU and Michigan:  I'd say well that is a screwy and way down the list tiebreaker but too bad, beat M/PSU and you wouldn't have to worry about tiebreakers.  

As far as the order, I agree with you that they'd likely avoid the rematch.  Besides, Bama and Texas are the two biggest draws so it would be better for ratings to split them up so you have a big draw in each semi-final if ratings considerations are important (and they could be) so I think:

• Texas:  Loss isn't that bad and the win over fellow-CFP Bama is the only such win for a CFP team.  
• Oregon:  Loss was close and on the road and avenged and they have looked great so their is an argument for them to be #1.  
• Bama:  Loss was to a fellow-CFP and they have a HUMONGOUS SECCG win over 2x defending NC UGA so this is arguably low.  
• Louisville:  Clearly the weakest of the bunch and realistically probably weaker than the five 1-loss teams left out but I'd still include them because we don't *KNOW* that and they did beat FSU and win a P5 with only a single loss.  

What is the tiebreaker that gives PSU the nod here?

Tiebreaker #5, best combined record of crossover opponents.  Right now that's Penn State, by a game.  It could easily change, but it seemed easier to put actual teams in there

ELA has it right, here are the details:

Penn State:

• 4-2 Iowa (vRU, vIL, @UNL)
• 2-4 Illinois (vIU, @IA, vNU)
• 2-4 Northwestern (@UW, vPU, @IL)
• 8-10 Total

Ohio State:

• 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
• 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
• 3-3 Wisconsin (vNU, vUNL, @MN)
• 7-11 Total

Michigan:

• 3-3 Minnesota (@PU, @tOSU, vUW)
• 1-5 Purdue (vMN, @NU, vIU)
• 3-3 Nebraska (vUMD, @UW, vIA)
• 7-11 Total

think the 4 will wind up being UGA, Michigan, Texas, and Oregon

In this scenario, or in general?

I have a couple more scnearios.  This is mostly about 1 loss champs versus "better" 1 loss non-champs.

I think they take the 4 1 loss champs here, but I'm curious as to what others think