I'm going to go with Oklahoma simply because my paternal Grandfather and a great-aunt were born there when my dad's paternal grandparents lived in Oklahoma for a few years in the early 1900's.
The biggest news at Oklahoma, of course, is the unscheduled coaching change. Programs like Oklahoma are not accustomed to losing coaches but that is what happened. Last year USC poached Lincoln Riley. The new coach is a widely respected DC, Brent Venables who has been at Clemson for the last decade. He is not, however, totally new to the Sooners. He was on Bob Stoops' staff in Norman from Stoops' first year (1999) through 2011 in various capacities eventually reaching DC/AHC. Note, that includes being co-DC the last time Oklahoma won an NC. Venables was also part of Dabo Swinney's staff at Clemson for multiple NC's so he has been there as part of two different programs.
Oklahoma missed the B12CG last year for the first time since that game was reinstated for the 2017 season. Since 2000 (22 years) Oklahoma has participated in 12 out of 16 B12CG's and won 11 of them. Note that last year's miss wasn't exactly a catastrophe of a season. The Sooners tied Baylor for the #2 seed but lost the tiebreaker based on their H2H loss to the Bears. Oklahoma's absence from the B12CG was also related to schedule as the Sooners had the unfortunate situation of getting their best two B12 opponents on the road and they lost both of those games.
The OOC is manageable with two cupcakes at home (UTEP, Kent) and a road game against historic rival Nebraska. The league schedule appears much easier this year as the H/A reverses but that could be a mirage if ISU and WVU end up being better in 2022 than Baylor and OkSU.
Venables should improve the defense and this year the Sooners get their likely toughest B12 games at home (oKsU, Baylor). Texas is a bit of a wildcard as the Longhorns have plenty of talent but haven't gotten a lot out of it lately and that game is at a neutral site as usual.
I fully expect Oklahoma to return to the B12CG and likely to win it. Returning to the CFP and winning a CFP game will be more difficult. Oklahoma has four CFP appearances which matches Ohio State and trails only Bama (7) and Clemson (6). The problem that Sooner fans want to see corrected is that the Sooners are tied for last in the nation with exactly zero CFP wins. This trails not only Bama (9), Clemson (6), and Ohio State (3) but also Georgia (3), LSU (2), and Oregon (1).
Oklahoma's four CFP losses are something of a mixed bag but the prevailing theme is that their defense wasn't sufficient. The losses were:
- 63-28 to eventual NC LSU in the 2019 season Peach Bowl
- 45-34 to Bama in the 2018 season Orange Bowl
- 54-48 to UGA in the 2017 season Rose Bowl
- 37-17 to Clemson in the 2015 season Orange Bowl
Note that in only one of the losses did the Sooners score less than four TD's. Ie, they had enough offense, they just gave up way too many points with, as one of their coaches used to say, a "half a hundred" or more getting hung on them twice and giving up 45 and 37 in the other two losses.
While the 2019 loss to LSU was an obvious blowout, the others were at least somewhat competitive:
The 2018 loss to Bama, 45-34:
The Sooners had a catastrophically bad opening 17 minutes and found themselves in a 28-0 hole. From there they played respectably and outscored the Tide 34-17 although it is hard to say how much of that was Oklahoma playing better and how much was Alabama not needing points and simply playing keep-away with their large lead.
The 2017 loss to UGA, 54-48:
This loss was in 2OT so it was easily the closest Oklahoma has come to winning a CFP game and as per usual, defense was the issue. The Sooners held a 45-38 lead late in the game but couldn't stop UGA's final drive which resulted in going to OT at 45-45. Each team kicked a FG in the first OT but then Oklahoma missed their FG try in the second OT, gave up a TD, and lost the game.
The 2015 loss to Clemson, 37-17:
Although this ended up as a 20 point loss the Sooners led early and held a 17-16 loss at the half. In this particular instance the problem was more offensive than defensive. After halftime the Sooners were unable to score.
As far as getting to the CFP is concerned the key game might be in Lincoln Nebraska in September. Nebraska is a bit of a wildcard as a team that had a horrible record in 2021 but was competitive in all of their losses including to some stellar opposition. A loss here would be problematic for the Sooners because it would practically eliminate their margin for error. A 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably goes to the CFP while an 11-2 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably does not.
Winning a CFP game depends on maintaining the offense and improving the defense. With even somewhat better defenses the Sooners would likely have won two of their four CFP games.
