CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2022, 03:47:28 PM
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I thought this up before the 2020 season which went to pot, maybe it'll work this time. The idea is to pick a team out of your conference to review, perhaps a team "on the cusp" that could surprise if chips fall.
I'm going with UCLA. Athlon projects them at 8-4. They have a very good returning QB and RB, and their schedule looks manageable. They get USC and Utah at home, Oregon on the road. Their defense last year let them down and could be improved. The first three games are pastries, then at CO and hosting Washington. Then Utah and 2Oregon, maybe they split those and would be ranked at 6-1. Stanford, @ASU, Zona, USC, @ Cal.
They also could be bad of course, but I see a shot at 10-2 and maybe the CG with a break or three.
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I'm going with K-state
ex-husker QB and all
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I'd do the Utes, but the GD Pac 12 Network isn't on DirectTV. :banghead:
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The two utes... - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu8tX2BAD1k)
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I'll do Bama.
They are gonna be great.
Sorry for the very short book.
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The two utes... - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu8tX2BAD1k)
LoL.
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I'll do Bama.
They are gonna be great.
Sorry for the very short book.
Gotta keep the engineers writing so it’s short and sweet. Because once they start talking and trying to explain something to you …
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Give me Kansas. I thought they showed a little spark last year, and I expect they could make a jump this year after being fairly competitive last year in Lance Leipold's first season. They only went 2-10, but they hung in much better than usual, including upsetting Texas and also having Oklahoma on the ropes with a 10-0 halftime lead. Similar to Fearless, a player from my team has transferred there, so I'm interested in watching Craig Young play.
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Gotta keep the engineers writing so it’s short and sweet. Because once they start talking and trying to explain something to you …
(https://i.imgur.com/OHfmYsb.png)
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Harry Husker hanging out with Big Jay and Baby Jay
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/287442212_453166703478342_8994456477440976499_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_s640x640&_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=VMU26Lq0X1sAX-Hg0vE&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AT9gj8bwmjT1YI5iSQY9iB5kj62Zmz1JHG2yT8ZdJBNoLw&oe=62AAC4CE)
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Phil Steele’s College Football Preview’s preseason top 40 has Georgia finishing the season at No. 3. Steele has Alabama (No. 1) and Ohio State (No. 2) just ahead of the Bulldogs and Clemson (No. 4), Michigan (No. 5), Utah (No. 6), Notre Dame (No. 7), Oklahoma (No. 8), Texas A&M (No. 9), and Oregon (No. 10) behind them to round out the top 10.
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really going out on the limb with the top 4
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As oft noted, they take last year's results and jiggle it some, which is fair enough but not enlightening.
I find it more interesting to consider possible break through teams under the radar, hence this thread.
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Yeah, these are always difficult. I think I'd drop GA and Clemson a little bit, but who moves up? Here's a quick stab at it:
1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Texas A+M
4) Utah
5) Georgia
6) Michigan
7) Clemson
8) Notre Dame
9) Tennessee
10) Oklahoma
I want to say other than Ohio State and Bama everyone is a little bit overrated. Of course you can't say a team is overrated without saying who to move up. It's definitely difficult to find other teams to move up. Utah is a team that I think might be a little underrated in some places, but #6 is a pretty high rating for this one. Maybe we have to look at a team like Mississippi State or Penn State for a team that should be up here?
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UGA has a near cake walk of a schedule. They could be 12-0 and really not a great team.
I think looking at the teams ranked 11-35 or so is worthwhile, usually 3-4-5 of them over achieve.
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A&M will have a good team, but the QB is inexperienced. I think we lose at least 3, which ain't terrible, if not great.
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College football: Dark horse contenders in each Power Five conference for 2022 (247sports.com) (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/college-football-dark-horse-contenders-in-each-power-five-conference-for-2022-188599925/#188599925_10)
A decent list of possibles, they have PSU and Iowa in the B1G and Ole Miss and Florida down south.
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In the Big Ten, there are 13 dark horses and one stallion.
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UGA has a near cake walk of a schedule. They could be 12-0 and really not a great team.
I hadn't really looked at UGA's schedule but I was curious based on this comment so I checked it out and they do have a remarkably favorable H/A split. They have two "neutral" site games but one is vs Oregon in Atlanta so that seems more like a home game to me. The other, of course, is the WLOCP. Then they get Auburn and Tennessee at home. Thus they have four true road games:
- USCe on 9/17
- Mizzou on 10/1
- MissSt on 11/12
- UK on 11/19
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just looked at UGA schedule. Looks like a 3 game season for them. They get Oregon in Atlanta at the MBenz dome though instead of having to go to all the way across the country out west and to Autzen. That's huge. They get Auburn at home- but who knows how good Auburn will be. And then they the annual game in Jax vs UF- and who really knows how good UF will be either.
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I'd opine their three most loseable games include Kentucky, Oregon, and Tennessee, maybe Florida. South Carolina often gives them fits too, but they "should" be a lot better than any of those. That doesn't equal a W of course.
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I'd opine their three most loseable games include Kentucky, Oregon, and Tennessee, maybe Florida. South Carolina often gives them fits too, but they "should" be a lot better than any of those. That doesn't equal a W of course.
UGA should be 10-2 at worst, more likely 11-1, and possibly even 12-0 next year imo.
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UGA should be 10-2 at worst, more likely 11-1, and possibly even 12-0 next year imo.
At Starkville with the Pirate throwing the ball all over the place in front of all those cowbells with a young UGA secondary is my biggest concern
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At Starkville with the Pirate throwing the ball all over the place in front of all those cowbells with a young UGA secondary is my biggest concern
Conveniently that one is non-divisional so even if they lose that one they'd still control their own destiny to the SECCG. It would, of course, give them less margin for error.
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At Starkville with the Pirate throwing the ball all over the place in front of all those cowbells with a young UGA secondary is my biggest concern
Those cowbells are something in person. Not sure they'll swing a game, but quite a quirk for an afternoon or evening.
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I don't think I could deal with that noise.
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I'm going with UCLA. Athlon projects them at 8-4. They have a very good returning QB and RB, and their schedule looks manageable. They get USC and Utah at home, Oregon on the road. Their defense last year let them down and could be improved. The first three games are pastries, then at CO and hosting Washington. Then Utah and 2Oregon, maybe they split those and would be ranked at 6-1. Stanford, @ASU, Zona, USC, @ Cal.
You pretty much laid everything out about UCLA going into this next season.
The first three games are nobodies at home - Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama - which is Chip Kelly's way of scheduling himself a winning season from here on out.
And I expect the defense to be improved after Chip Kelly moved on from his buddy Jerry Azzinaro. The new DC, Bill McGovern is still a Chip Kelly buddy, which is another point. Part of Chip's preference toward UCLA over better offers he received (Florida) is they let him hire his buddies.
And despite all the hype for USC and Caleb Williams, UCLA has the more proven backfield with veteran QB Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet.
I still don't think UCLA is past their knack for underachieving and head-scratching losses, such as to Fresno State last season, but the program is on far more stable ground than the first few Chip Kelly years.
10-2 is attainable.
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I'm going to go with Oklahoma simply because my paternal Grandfather and a great-aunt were born there when my dad's paternal grandparents lived in Oklahoma for a few years in the early 1900's.
The biggest news at Oklahoma, of course, is the unscheduled coaching change. Programs like Oklahoma are not accustomed to losing coaches but that is what happened. Last year USC poached Lincoln Riley. The new coach is a widely respected DC, Brent Venables who has been at Clemson for the last decade. He is not, however, totally new to the Sooners. He was on Bob Stoops' staff in Norman from Stoops' first year (1999) through 2011 in various capacities eventually reaching DC/AHC. Note, that includes being co-DC the last time Oklahoma won an NC. Venables was also part of Dabo Swinney's staff at Clemson for multiple NC's so he has been there as part of two different programs.
Oklahoma missed the B12CG last year for the first time since that game was reinstated for the 2017 season. Since 2000 (22 years) Oklahoma has participated in 12 out of 16 B12CG's and won 11 of them. Note that last year's miss wasn't exactly a catastrophe of a season. The Sooners tied Baylor for the #2 seed but lost the tiebreaker based on their H2H loss to the Bears. Oklahoma's absence from the B12CG was also related to schedule as the Sooners had the unfortunate situation of getting their best two B12 opponents on the road and they lost both of those games.
The OOC is manageable with two cupcakes at home (UTEP, Kent) and a road game against historic rival Nebraska. The league schedule appears much easier this year as the H/A reverses but that could be a mirage if ISU and WVU end up being better in 2022 than Baylor and OkSU.
Venables should improve the defense and this year the Sooners get their likely toughest B12 games at home (oKsU, Baylor). Texas is a bit of a wildcard as the Longhorns have plenty of talent but haven't gotten a lot out of it lately and that game is at a neutral site as usual.
I fully expect Oklahoma to return to the B12CG and likely to win it. Returning to the CFP and winning a CFP game will be more difficult. Oklahoma has four CFP appearances which matches Ohio State and trails only Bama (7) and Clemson (6). The problem that Sooner fans want to see corrected is that the Sooners are tied for last in the nation with exactly zero CFP wins. This trails not only Bama (9), Clemson (6), and Ohio State (3) but also Georgia (3), LSU (2), and Oregon (1).
Oklahoma's four CFP losses are something of a mixed bag but the prevailing theme is that their defense wasn't sufficient. The losses were:
- 63-28 to eventual NC LSU in the 2019 season Peach Bowl
- 45-34 to Bama in the 2018 season Orange Bowl
- 54-48 to UGA in the 2017 season Rose Bowl
- 37-17 to Clemson in the 2015 season Orange Bowl
Note that in only one of the losses did the Sooners score less than four TD's. Ie, they had enough offense, they just gave up way too many points with, as one of their coaches used to say, a "half a hundred" or more getting hung on them twice and giving up 45 and 37 in the other two losses.
While the 2019 loss to LSU was an obvious blowout, the others were at least somewhat competitive:
The 2018 loss to Bama, 45-34:
The Sooners had a catastrophically bad opening 17 minutes and found themselves in a 28-0 hole. From there they played respectably and outscored the Tide 34-17 although it is hard to say how much of that was Oklahoma playing better and how much was Alabama not needing points and simply playing keep-away with their large lead.
The 2017 loss to UGA, 54-48:
This loss was in 2OT so it was easily the closest Oklahoma has come to winning a CFP game and as per usual, defense was the issue. The Sooners held a 45-38 lead late in the game but couldn't stop UGA's final drive which resulted in going to OT at 45-45. Each team kicked a FG in the first OT but then Oklahoma missed their FG try in the second OT, gave up a TD, and lost the game.
The 2015 loss to Clemson, 37-17:
Although this ended up as a 20 point loss the Sooners led early and held a 17-16 loss at the half. In this particular instance the problem was more offensive than defensive. After halftime the Sooners were unable to score.
As far as getting to the CFP is concerned the key game might be in Lincoln Nebraska in September. Nebraska is a bit of a wildcard as a team that had a horrible record in 2021 but was competitive in all of their losses including to some stellar opposition. A loss here would be problematic for the Sooners because it would practically eliminate their margin for error. A 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably goes to the CFP while an 11-2 B12 Champion Oklahoma probably does not.
Winning a CFP game depends on maintaining the offense and improving the defense. With even somewhat better defenses the Sooners would likely have won two of their four CFP games.
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Huskers gonna be motivated for the Sooner game
not sure the Sooners gonna feel the same way
hoping for the upset of the decade
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(https://i.imgur.com/plfWr7V.png)
I guess this is for 2022. What about the ND coach?
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(https://i.imgur.com/O1onnu8.png)
Note time period.
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(https://i.imgur.com/plfWr7V.png)
I guess this is for 2022. What about the ND coach?
Where's Lance Leipold? If Miami has a chance, then surely KU has a chance too.
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Anybody spot any other teams "off the radar" with a combination of good schedule and decent returning players that could be 10-2ish?