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Topic: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .

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medinabuckeye1

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Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« on: December 15, 2020, 10:10:27 PM »
So the second-to-last CFP rankings are out:

  • 10-0 Bama vs #7 UF in SECCG
  • 10-0 Notre Dame vs #3 Clemson in ACCCG
  • 9-1 Clemson vs #2 ND in ACCCG
  • 5-0 Ohio State vs #14 NU in B1GCG
  • 7-1 aTm @ nr TN
  • 8-2 ISU vs #10 OU in B12CG
  • 8-2 UF vs #1 Bama in SECCG
  • 7-2 UGA, regular season complete
  • 8-0 Cincy, vs #23 Tulsa in AACCG
  • 7-2 Oklahoma vs #6 ISU in B12CG
  • 6-1 Indiana, regular season complete
  • 11-0 Coastal Carolina vs #19 LA in Sun Belt CG
  • 5-0 USC vs nr Oregon in P12CG
  • 6-1 Northwestern vs #4 tOSU in B1GCG
  • 8-3 North Carolina, regular season complete
  • 6-2 Iowa, regular season complete
  • 10-1 BYU, regular season complete
  • 8-2 Miami, regular season complete
  • 9-1 Louisiana at #12 CCU in SBCG
  • 6-3 Texas, regular season complete
  • 7-3 Oklahoma State, regular season complete
  • 8-3 NCST, regular season complete
  • 6-1 Tulsa at #9 Cincy in AACCG
  • 6-0 San Jose State vs nr Boise St in MWCCG
  • 4-1 Colorado, regular season complete

I think the fact that Florida is still ahead of Cincy indicates that the Bearcats are completely out of it.  Even in their theoretical best-case-scenario I just can't see them moving up five spots.  

I am also coming around to the point of view that unless Notre Dame just gets absolutely clobbered in the ACCCG, they are in.  I also have been of the opinion that Bama would be in even with an SECCG loss so long as they got there undefeated and now that has happened.  Thus, I think that Bama and Notre Dame have effectively already clinched.  

The next two teams to discuss are Clemson and tOSU.  I think that both would be out with a loss, but they control their own destiny as they would be in with wins.  

IMHO, everybody behind there NEEDS at least one or preferably both of Clemson and tOSU to lose their respective CG's.  

Assuming that one of tOSU/Clemson loses I am starting to think that the next team in, rather than aTm is quite possibly the B12CG winner.  The ISU/OU winner will pick up a quality win and a P5 league title while aTm will play TN.  

If both tOSU and Clemson lose then I'm thinking the likely outcome is Bama, ND, B12CG winner, and then aTm (assuming they win).  If tOSU, Clemson, and aTm all lose then replace aTm with maybe Georgia.  I don't know.  UGA has two losses and no hardware so that might be a reach.  Maybe Northwestern or USC.  

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2020, 10:20:23 PM »
Wow.
With a OU victory and a blowout ND win, Florida is in with a win over Bama.  That's....something. 
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2020, 10:31:09 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 15, 2020, 10:10:27 PM
So the second-to-last CFP rankings are out:

  • 10-0 Bama vs #7 UF in SECCG
  • 10-0 Notre Dame vs #3 Clemson in ACCCG
  • 9-1 Clemson vs #2 ND in ACCCG
  • 5-0 Ohio State vs #14 NU in B1GCG
  • 7-1 aTm @ nr TN
  • 8-2 ISU vs #10 OU in B12CG
  • 8-2 UF vs #1 Bama in SECCG
  • 7-2 UGA, regular season complete
  • 8-0 Cincy, vs #23 Tulsa in AACCG
  • 7-2 Oklahoma vs #6 ISU in B12CG
  • 6-1 Indiana, regular season complete
  • 11-0 Coastal Carolina vs #19 LA in Sun Belt CG
  • 5-0 USC vs nr Oregon in P12CG
  • 6-1 Northwestern vs #4 tOSU in B1GCG
  • 8-3 North Carolina, regular season complete
  • 6-2 Iowa, regular season complete
  • 10-1 BYU, regular season complete
  • 8-2 Miami, regular season complete
  • 9-1 Louisiana at #12 CCU in SBCG
  • 6-3 Texas, regular season complete
  • 7-3 Oklahoma State, regular season complete
  • 8-3 NCST, regular season complete
  • 6-1 Tulsa at #9 Cincy in AACCG
  • 6-0 San Jose State vs nr Boise St in MWCCG
  • 4-1 Colorado, regular season complete

I think the fact that Florida is still ahead of Cincy indicates that the Bearcats are completely out of it.  Even in their theoretical best-case-scenario I just can't see them moving up five spots. 

I am also coming around to the point of view that unless Notre Dame just gets absolutely clobbered in the ACCCG, they are in.  I also have been of the opinion that Bama would be in even with an SECCG loss so long as they got there undefeated and now that has happened.  Thus, I think that Bama and Notre Dame have effectively already clinched. 

The next two teams to discuss are Clemson and tOSU.  I think that both would be out with a loss, but they control their own destiny as they would be in with wins. 

IMHO, everybody behind there NEEDS at least one or preferably both of Clemson and tOSU to lose their respective CG's. 

Assuming that one of tOSU/Clemson loses I am starting to think that the next team in, rather than aTm is quite possibly the B12CG winner.  The ISU/OU winner will pick up a quality win and a P5 league title while aTm will play TN. 

If both tOSU and Clemson lose then I'm thinking the likely outcome is Bama, ND, B12CG winner, and then aTm (assuming they win).  If tOSU, Clemson, and aTm all lose then replace aTm with maybe Georgia.  I don't know.  UGA has two losses and no hardware so that might be a reach.  Maybe Northwestern or USC. 


If Clemson loses in a close one, the commitee will keep them in.  Guaranteed. 
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ELA

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2020, 10:57:54 PM »
They weren't about to jam a college football season in during a pandemic just to wind up with Cincinnati in the playoff
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bayareabadger

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2020, 11:18:12 PM »
Auguring these results is weird because we know they are without meaning. 

Next week, the committee will look at a mess of results and pick a playoff field. What today's rankings look like, they do not matter. How they explained this week or last week's rankings, the also do not matter. 

This is dumb TV product.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2020, 01:17:48 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on December 15, 2020, 11:18:12 PM
Auguring these results is weird because we know they are without meaning.

Next week, the committee will look at a mess of results and pick a playoff field. What today's rankings look like, they do not matter. 
Actually these do matter. For example, Iowa State has a narrow tippy toe path. It requires A & M to lose to Tennesse, Ohio State to lose to Northwestern, and maybe Florida to lose to Alabama. But there is logic to these rankings. But the paths outside the Top 6 are beyond extremely narrow.
To think ISU which has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 conference title has any path going into the last game of the season is almost beyond my belief. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2020, 07:52:13 AM »
Whoever slots 4 is going to get pounded.
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FearlessF

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2020, 08:50:24 AM »
not with certainty

Bama can always overlook someone and Bama's opponent could play out there arse and/or get some breaks
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FearlessF

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2020, 08:50:57 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 15, 2020, 10:20:23 PM
Wow.
With a OU victory and a blowout ND win, Florida is in with a win over Bama.  That's....something. 
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
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847badgerfan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2020, 08:54:22 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 07:52:13 AM
Whoever slots 4 is going to get pounded.
I'm not so sure.
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FearlessF

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2020, 08:57:38 AM »
it's 2020

and whoever is at #4 is a pretty solid squad
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2020, 09:25:19 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 08:50:57 AM
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
Champs vs non-champs.  Beat the team that beat A&M.  Yes, I'm sure.
Again, not what I think SHOULD happen, but what WOULD.
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FearlessF

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2020, 09:30:53 AM »
they talked about the possibility of A&M being 4th with a rematch with Bama

not desirable

 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2020, 09:34:07 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 16, 2020, 08:50:57 AM
ya sure A&M wouldn't get that slot?
That would get interesting.  So the hypothetical is:
  • UF beats Bama in the SECCG, finishes 9-2 and SEC Champions.  
  • aTm beats TN and finishes 8-1 but with no hardware.  

Quality wins:
  • UF's win over Bama would be better than aTm's win over UF
  • The drop-off between best and second best win is severe for aTm.  UF's second best would be 7-2 #8 UGA while aTm's would be 6-4 nr Auburn
I see UF with a MAJOR advantage in quality wins.  

Loss(es):
  • I see UF's three-point road loss to aTm as pretty even with aTm's four-TD loss to Bama.  UF's loss was closer but aTm's was to a better team.  
  • UF's second loss is problematic both because aTm doesn't have a second loss and because it was to a sub .500 unranked LSU squad.  

H2H:
  • This obviously favors aTm.  

League titles:
  • This obviously favors UF.  

If I were voting, I would see this as a REALLY close call.  UF has advantages in quality wins and league titles while aTm has advantages in losses and H2H.  

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