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Topic: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2020, 09:47:56 AM »
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:

  • tOSU -20.5 vs NU in the B1GCG in Indy:  O/U is 57.5 so they are predicting something like 39-18 tOSU.  
  • Bama -17 vs UF in the SECCG in Atlanta:  O/U is 74.5 (Twelving) so they are predicting something like 46-29 Bama.  
  • Clemson -10.5 vs ND in the ACCCG in Charlotte:  O/U is 60 so they are predicting something like 35-25 Clemson.  
  • Oklahoma -5.5 vs ISU in the B12CG in Arlington:  O/U is 58 so they are predicting something like 32-26 OU.  
  • USC -3.0 vs Oregon in the P12CG in Los Angeles:  O/U is 62.5 so they are predicting something like 33-30 USC.  

Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things.  

I know @utee94 will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group!  

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bayareabadger

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2020, 10:01:07 AM »
Quote from: Hawkinole on December 16, 2020, 01:17:48 AM
Actually these do matter. For example, Iowa State has a narrow tippy toe path. It requires A & M to lose to Tennesse, Ohio State to lose to Northwestern, and maybe Florida to lose to Alabama. But there is logic to these rankings. But the paths outside the Top 6 are beyond extremely narrow.
To think ISU which has never won a Big 8 or Big 12 conference title has any path going into the last game of the season is almost beyond my belief.
So the logic you're talking about seems to be poll logic. Right? Win move up some, lose move down some, can't jump a team that wins, etc. And no where are there rules that poll logic applies. All they do is rank them each week. And then they go out and say some burbling to justify. 

If they decide next week that Coastal is the bees knees, the rest doesn't matter. 

Now you're correct about the narrow path, but it doesn't have much to do with who is No. 6 or whatnot. ISU has two losses, and they don't like losses. Plus they don't play in a conference that gets benefit of the doubt and are a brand that doesn't either. They benefit from the fact that mid-majors are all out before the first kickoff, and likely from the fact two conferences didn't play enough to get in with one loss or even zero. But all that is true regardless of if they're 7 or 6 or A&M is 5. 
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utee94

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2020, 10:37:24 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 09:47:56 AM
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:

  • tOSU -20.5 vs NU in the B1GCG in Indy:  O/U is 57.5 so they are predicting something like 39-18 tOSU. 
  • Bama -17 vs UF in the SECCG in Atlanta:  O/U is 74.5 (Twelving) so they are predicting something like 46-29 Bama. 
  • Clemson -10.5 vs ND in the ACCCG in Charlotte:  O/U is 60 so they are predicting something like 35-25 Clemson. 
  • Oklahoma -5.5 vs ISU in the B12CG in Arlington:  O/U is 58 so they are predicting something like 32-26 OU. 
  • USC -3.0 vs Oregon in the P12CG in Los Angeles:  O/U is 62.5 so they are predicting something like 33-30 USC. 

Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things. 

I know @utee94 will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 



Ha!  Sadly I suspect they'll hit the overs when OU blows them out something like 48-31.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #17 on: December 16, 2020, 10:48:37 AM »
Vegas doesn't care who wins, generally.  They take their vig and if they balance the incoming bets properly, they win in every case.  They do a pretty good job setting the initial line because they understand who is betting with big dollars.  If you see a line shift over the week, it's a sign they missed their mark and are covering.

Bama will be a 20+ favorite over whoever is #4.  A 20+ dog wins about 5% of the time, or less.  If we get Clemson-Ohio State, the line will be inside 5 I think.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #18 on: December 16, 2020, 10:49:38 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 09:47:56 AM
The wiseguys out in Vegas think most of the P5 CG's will not be close:

  • tOSU -20.5 vs NU in the B1GCG in Indy:  O/U is 57.5 so they are predicting something like 39-18 tOSU. 
  • Bama -17 vs UF in the SECCG in Atlanta:  O/U is 74.5 (Twelving) so they are predicting something like 46-29 Bama. 
  • Clemson -10.5 vs ND in the ACCCG in Charlotte:  O/U is 60 so they are predicting something like 35-25 Clemson. 
  • Oklahoma -5.5 vs ISU in the B12CG in Arlington:  O/U is 58 so they are predicting something like 32-26 OU. 
  • USC -3.0 vs Oregon in the P12CG in Los Angeles:  O/U is 62.5 so they are predicting something like 33-30 USC. 

Say what you want about those guys, but they didn't build those big beautiful casinos by losing money.  They tend to have a pretty good idea on these things. 

I know @utee94 will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 


True, true, but....you don't make much money betting 5-game parlays, either.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #19 on: December 16, 2020, 10:50:26 AM »
I hope we end up with Alabama vs Ohio State for the NC.  The best 2 teams.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #20 on: December 16, 2020, 11:16:09 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 16, 2020, 10:49:38 AM
True, true, but....you don't make much money betting 5-game parlays, either.
No, but that is statistics not lines.  If all of their lines are dead on then you have a 50/50 chance betting any of the five games.  Ie:
  • If you bet the B1GCG (either way) you have a 50/50 chance of winning.  
  • Parlay in the SECCG (either way) and your chance drops to 25%
  • Parlay in the ACCCG (either way) and your chance drops to 12.5%
  • Parlay in the B12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 6.25%
  • Parlay in the P12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 3.125%
So yeah, not very darn likely that your chosen team in each of the five games will COVER.  However, covering and winning are two different things.  Part of it is that the actual teams involved don't care about covering.  Suppose that tOSU (20.5 favorite) and Bama (17 favorite) are leading their games by 21 and 20 respectively late in the 4th quarter.  They then put in backup defenders to get them some reps figuring they might need those guys in the semi-final or NC and NU/UF each score late TD's such that tOSU wins by 14 and Bama wins by 13.  Are tOSU and Bama really one 13-14 points better than NU/UF?  NO!  They are at least ~20 points better and if they had left their starters in and kept their foot on the gas they would have undoubtedly won by at least 20 points.  

This (link) is just a random site I found on a quick search but it gives a % chance of the favorite or underdog winning based on the spread for CFB.  According to this those chances for the favorites are:
  • Ohio State (-20.5) has a nearly 100% chance of beating NU (site says 100% but that is obviously not correct)
  • Bama (-17) has a 91.4% chance of beating UF
  • Clemson (-10.5) has a 79.3% chance of beating ND
  • Oklahoma (-5.5) has a 65.1% chance of beating ISU
  • USC (-3) has a 57.4% chance of beating Oregon.  

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574).  


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Cincydawg

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #21 on: December 16, 2020, 11:24:28 AM »
There is a very good historical basis for those winning percentages based on spread.  Different sites give slightly different percentages, I don't know why.

I recall a 7 point dog wins 1 time in 3 according to one site.  That really is pretty often.  Once you get past 14 on the spread, the "odds" go down hard.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #22 on: December 16, 2020, 11:38:41 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 11:16:09 AM
No, but that is statistics not lines.  If all of their lines are dead on then you have a 50/50 chance betting any of the five games.  Ie:
  • If you bet the B1GCG (either way) you have a 50/50 chance of winning. 
  • Parlay in the SECCG (either way) and your chance drops to 25%
  • Parlay in the ACCCG (either way) and your chance drops to 12.5%
  • Parlay in the B12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 6.25%
  • Parlay in the P12CG (either way) and your chance drops to 3.125%
So yeah, not very darn likely that your chosen team in each of the five games will COVER.  However, covering and winning are two different things.  Part of it is that the actual teams involved don't care about covering.  Suppose that tOSU (20.5 favorite) and Bama (17 favorite) are leading their games by 21 and 20 respectively late in the 4th quarter.  They then put in backup defenders to get them some reps figuring they might need those guys in the semi-final or NC and NU/UF each score late TD's such that tOSU wins by 14 and Bama wins by 13.  Are tOSU and Bama really one 13-14 points better than NU/UF?  NO!  They are at least ~20 points better and if they had left their starters in and kept their foot on the gas they would have undoubtedly won by at least 20 points. 

This (link) is just a random site I found on a quick search but it gives a % chance of the favorite or underdog winning based on the spread for CFB.  According to this those chances for the favorites are:
  • Ohio State (-20.5) has a nearly 100% chance of beating NU (site says 100% but that is obviously not correct)
  • Bama (-17) has a 91.4% chance of beating UF
  • Clemson (-10.5) has a 79.3% chance of beating ND
  • Oklahoma (-5.5) has a 65.1% chance of beating ISU
  • USC (-3) has a 57.4% chance of beating Oregon. 

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574). 



Word spreading they will be without a big name on offense.  Likely Fields, Olave or Wilson I would guess. NW sound on defense.  I expect a dogfight.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #23 on: December 16, 2020, 11:41:44 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 11:16:09 AM

Each of those favorites has a pretty good chance of winning but all of them . . . not so much.  Even assuming that tOSU has a 100% chance of winning (they don't), the chance of all five winning (if I have my stats right) is:  27.08% (.914*.793*.651*.574). 



Right.  Thanks for the work put in.  So while ALL are highly unlikely to cover, ALL are still quite unlikely to win.  
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rolltidefan

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2020, 10:01:37 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 16, 2020, 09:47:56 AM


I know @utee94 will like that the B12CG has the second lowest O/U of the group! 


that's because the bigxii doesn't play offense, pawl...

Quote from: utee94 on December 16, 2020, 10:37:24 AM
Ha!  Sadly I suspect they'll hit the overs when OU blows them out something like 48-31.

that's because the bigxii doesn't play defense, pawl...
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Cincydawg

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #25 on: December 17, 2020, 12:31:27 PM »
Unlikely possibilities:

Bama loses, they are still in.  We think.

Ohio State loses, they are probably out, I think.

ND beats Clemson (upset technically), ND is in, Clemson is out.

Florida wins, SEC champs, two losses, hum.

A&M loses to Tennessee, they are out.

Iowa State loses.

Cincy loses.

USC loses.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #26 on: December 17, 2020, 12:45:24 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on December 16, 2020, 10:48:37 AM
Bama will be a 20+ favorite over whoever is #4.  A 20+ dog wins about 5% of the time, or less. 
20+ pt dog wins 5% of the time.I'd be willing to bet they cover the spread a lot more than that
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Cincydawg

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Re: Penultimate CFP Rankings and chances . . .
« Reply #27 on: December 17, 2020, 12:48:35 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 17, 2020, 12:45:24 PM
20+ pt dog wins 5% of the time.I'd be willing to bet they cover the spread a lot more than that
Of course, they'd cover somewhere near half the time.  
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