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Topic: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership

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MarqHusker

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #238 on: March 28, 2018, 01:13:44 AM »
College Football needs a Commish.

ELA

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #239 on: March 28, 2018, 07:56:06 AM »
We don't know that current/past TV monies are all there will be going forward.  Sure, it'll drop off big time, but college football may yet find another method of raking in the dollars to show the product.  It could be something that isn't even a thing yet.  

There's nothing inherently wrong with 16-team conferences.  Just because you don't dig it doesn't mean it's 'bad'.
I'm not saying it's bad.  But it doesn't make any sense without tv paying for it.  Not even the 16 team part so much, as how they went to 16 by adding tv markets, and ignoring geography.  They literally made their choices 100% based on tv markets, and made choices that make no sense without those tv markets.

847badgerfan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #240 on: March 28, 2018, 01:06:45 PM »
I was thinking of applying an attendance threshold as to what schools should remain as P5 representatives.

What would be a good number? Start at 50K and go from there? There are some P5 schools with stadiums that offer less capacity than that. 45K maybe?

Much of the SEC and B1G are safe in that zone. The ACC and PAC could be in trouble - particularly the former.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #241 on: March 28, 2018, 02:42:03 PM »
Is this idea sort of creating rungs or tiers within the conference?  If not, correct me.
If so, I thought the goal was a uniform setup with everyone on equal footing (what we DON'T have, presently).  At the start of the season, don't we want everyone to have an equal chance to earn their way into a playoff/NCG?
Sort-of, but not exactly.  To review (and for anyone else reading who doesn't want to have to flip back multiple pages), my proposal is to have overlapping pods and groups with two pods combining to form a temporary division.  The Pods/Groups are:
Pod/Group   Group1  Group2  Group3  Group4
North Pod    Mich      MSU      PU         NU
East Pod      PSU       UMD     UVA       UNC
West Pod     UNL      Iowa      Wisc      Minny
South Pod    tOSU     RU        IU         IL
I'm assuming a nine-game annual schedule so each team will play:
  • Their three pod-mates every year, and
  • Their three group-mates every year, and
  • The other three teams in one of the other three pods each year (on a rotating basis).  

It does create "tiers" in the sense that Michigan has to play PSU, UNL, and tOSU every year while MSU gets UMD, Iowa, and Rutgers instead.  To an extent, that would currently be an advantage for MSU because the Nittany Lions, Cornhuskers, and Buckeyes are usually somewhat better than the Terps, Hawkeyes, and Scarlet Knights.  However, the temporary divisional structure would partially alleviate this:
  • In the years when the North and East Pods are combined to form a Northeast Division MSU would have to play PSU and Michigan would get to play Maryland.  Michigan would still have to play UNL and tOSU while MSU got IA and RU but, at least last year, Iowa was so much better than Nebraska that it pretty much made up for the tOSU/RU difference.  
  • In the years when the North and West Pods are combined to form a Northwest Divison MSU would have to play UNL and Michigan would have to play Iowa.  At present this would be the toughest for Michigan vis-a-vis MSU because Michigan's "other" two games would be PSU/tOSU while MSU's would be UMD/RU.  
  • In the years when the North and South Pods are combined to form a Northsouth Division MSU would have to play tOSU and Michigan would get to play Rutgers.  This would be similar to #1 in that Iowa being better than UNL could make up for tOSU being better than RU.  

@TyphonInc is right (see my next post) in that my proposal is mostly for ratings purposes.  That isn't so much because I think it is what the conference "should" do as it is because I assume that it is what the conference "will" do.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #242 on: March 28, 2018, 03:12:05 PM »
It does create tiers. Medina's proposal is for ratings purposes, to have the 4 Historical Helmets play each other. Each helmet plays the other 3 helmets every year, and all the other schools play two helmets a year. His premise is fans would rather see their team beat a bad helmet, than play a school that is performing well. It would prolly work for a while, and solves the biggest stumbling block to my Performance based Tiers. (What if OSU and UofM are not in the same performance tier.) I counter though does Alabama get excited to embarrass Tennessee year in and year out?
Yes, a BIG part of the logic behind my proposal is to have the four historical helmets play each other every year.  These six games are ratings bonanzas:
  • Ohio State vs Michigan
  • Ohio State vs Penn State
  • Ohio State vs Nebraska
  • Michigan vs Penn State
  • Michigan vs Nebraska
  • Penn State vs Nebraska.  

I know and respect you so I assume this was unintentional, but you slightly misquoted me.  You said that my premise was that "fans would rather see their team beat a bad helmet, than play a school that is performing well."  What I actually said was that a hypothetical Minnesota fan "would MUCH rather watch their team beat a bad Michigan team than a bad Purdue team."  I think this is true for Ohio State fans as well.  I really enjoyed watching the Buckeyes beat up RRod's horrible 3-9 team in 2008.  I enjoyed it a lot more than I enjoyed watching that same Ohio State team beat 4-8 Purdue and 5-7 Illinois.  Purdue and Illinois were theoretically better teams but within a range of a few games it doesn't make much difference.  Within that range I'd much rather beat the bad team with the big helmet than any other bad team.  I assume that most fans, whether or not their own team is a "helmet" would generally agree.  

To your final question as to whether or not Bama fans get excited to embarrass Tennessee year in and year out, I agree with @OrangeAfroMan .  He loved Florida's 10 year run on Tennessee and I'd love every minute of every game if Ohio State had a 20 year run on Michigan.  

In the long-run I think you are right.  If Michigan permanently tanked then I think that eventually younger Ohio State fans would wonder why we played "crappy Michigan" instead of "Helmet MSU" every year.  However, I think that "long-run" is REALLY long.  It is also highly dependent of the age of the fans in question.  Fans like you and me who lived through Cooper's 2-10-1 against The Team Up North will probably never live long enough to get bored with beating the crap out of bad Michigan teams every year.  Younger fans would, understandably, view the situation differently.  

I imagine that it is the same for the Bama fans that you asked about.  My best guess is that 18 year old Bama freshmen who were six the last time Tennessee beat Bama and in diapers the last time Tennessee won in Tuscaloosa probably wonder why on earth their mighty Tide are saddled with "crappy Tennessee" for a rival.  Bama fans your age and mine, on the other hand, remember Tennessee's seven-game winning streak over the Tide from 1995-2001 and Tennessee winning nine of 10 from 1995-2004.  Those older fans, like us, will probably never live long enough to get bored with beating the crap out of bad Tennessee teams every year.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #243 on: March 28, 2018, 03:28:40 PM »
On this bubble question, I am with @OrangeAfroMan .  In my opinion the bubble is the TV money.  Conference size is related but not the same thing.  

I understand the point that if the TV money dries up it really doesn't make sense for Maryland to fly their football team to Iowa/Nebraska/Minnesota/Wisconsin.  However, there is a humongous amount of TV money so we need to think here about the definition of "dries up".  The TV contract could be cut in half or down to less than 30% and it would still be a LOT of money and still enough to easily justify paying for those flights.  

As long as there are fans, there will be some way of monetizing their interest in the games.  It might cease to be advertising and cable subscription fees but the money will still be there for some time to come.  

The other thing is that the Pod system alleviates this issue considerably.  In my proposal Maryland's every-year rivals would be:

Of those, only Iowa is really far and the first four are all easy drives.  Every year four of their nine B1G games would be within easy driving distance.  If you look at the whole chart for my proposal most teams would have four every year opponents within easy driving distance.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #244 on: March 28, 2018, 04:24:47 PM »
Quote
  

As long as there are fans, there will be some way of monetizing their interest in the games.  It might cease to be advertising and cable subscription fees but the money will still be there for some time to come.  

This.  Entities that haven't even been invented yet will occur between now and college football viewing monies "dry up", to be sure.
Instead of conference channels or Longhorn Network, they may one day be the NCAA football channel group - and even if it costs a lot or a little, all of us and our brethren will gladly pay up.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #245 on: March 28, 2018, 04:26:49 PM »
medina, I guess your pod/groups idea seems like a caste system to me.  If it were implemented in 1950, Minnesota would be a top tier team.  If it was implemented in the 80s, Oregon would be way down the group list in the PAC.

We all know helmet status is slow to change, but it does change.  And if you have a long-term relegation system like top soccer leagues, I just don't think college football people would sign off on that.  Right or wrong, too many would just not like it, imo.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #246 on: March 28, 2018, 04:36:52 PM »
For my idea, I'm with those who want to go back to 10-team conferences, but I also know it isn't going backward.  16 teams is 2 groups of 8, so in effect, if the conferences agreed to pair off pods, each of them would look like pairs of 8-team conferences under one umbrella.  

As for only having 3 annual opponents, who looks forward to more than that each season?  For Florida, I know we look forward to Tennessee, Georgia, and FSU.  FSU is OOC, so if you had to replaced them, I guess it'd be LSU.  If Gators fans were told we'd only play UTK, UGA, and LSU every year, and everyone else every other year, we'd be really okay with that.  No, most won't end up with 3 sexy teams like that - acutally no one would.  Probably 2 at the most.  But still - it would be orchestrated in a way in which no one is stuck with 3 duds to play every year.  

But back to the caste system - that's pretty much the polar opposite of what I'm advocating for.  If the P5 is comprised of 64 teams or 66 or 80, I don't care, I just want them all to have an equal shot at the national championship.  That means if they win their pod/division/conference, they're in the playoff.  With how it is today, everything is so out of balance, I'm not an advocate for such things.  But if conferences and scheduling and formatting is all uniform, I'm all for it.

Any team winning its 16-team conference would have earned it, 100% of the time.  Once they earn their way into a playoff, from there, they'd earn whatever they win.  Whether its Oregon State or Oklahoma or Ole Miss or Maryland or Iowa - there would be no more "paper" 12-0 teams.....no more backing into a playoff or NCG.  

I think the idea most would be against (especially helmet team peoples) is the equal 6/6 home/away games for EVERYONE, every year.  That would cut out some of the advantages helmets have now - 8-9 home games means major dollars.  Nuh uh.  6/6 for everyone, every year.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

ELA

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #247 on: March 28, 2018, 05:16:16 PM »
This.  Entities that haven't even been invented yet will occur between now and college football viewing monies "dry up", to be sure.
Instead of conference channels or Longhorn Network, they may one day be the NCAA football channel group - and even if it costs a lot or a little, all of us and our brethren will gladly pay up.
But unless that money is negotiated on a conference basis, why would Maryland have to fly to Nebraska or Minnesota, or why would West Virginia have to navigate Texas recruiting, to get it?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #248 on: March 28, 2018, 05:34:45 PM »
But unless that money is negotiated on a conference basis, why would Maryland have to fly to Nebraska or Minnesota, or why would West Virginia have to navigate Texas recruiting, to get it?
Well for one reason (and also somewhat to play devil's advocate), the conference serves more than one function.  It isn't just a negotiating conglomerate, it also effectively serves as an insurance collective.  
In a theoretical world in which an individual team could easily monetize their fan interest and schedule games without help from a conference, Ohio State would be better off independent from the B1G provided that Ohio State continues to perform at a high level.  Part of the reason that Ohio State would be highly unlikely to consider that split is that the revenue of the other 13 members is a kind of "insurance" for Ohio State.  If Ohio State goes into a major decline and fans lose interest the AD can still count on getting Ohio State's 1/14 share of B1G revenues.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #249 on: March 28, 2018, 08:46:15 PM »
But unless that money is negotiated on a conference basis, why would Maryland have to fly to Nebraska or Minnesota, or why would West Virginia have to navigate Texas recruiting, to get it?
Maybe it would be on a conference-by-conference basis.  The SEC on CBS, the B10 on Fox, etc.  That would work. 
If it was these big, fat 4 conferences together, well Maryland would benefit from being in the same, big money-earning lump USC is part of and Texas is part of and Minnesota is part of.  The cost of flying out there would be more than made up.  
Maybe I don't understand what you're getting at.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

TyphonInc

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #250 on: March 28, 2018, 08:46:58 PM »
Sorry Medina, brain fart on my part, did not mean to offend/slight. (I did read it as bad Helmet worth more than, current quality opponent; which is part of my pod proposal.)

My question about the Bama/Tennessee game was about non-Bama/Tennessee fans, does anyone outside of those fan bases care about it? I don't.

Do non-OSU/M*ch fans care about the annual beat down that has been administered? We do because OSU is our team. M*ch does because they want it to stop. Does OAM care if CFP implications are not involved?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: P5 Alignment - post NCAA Membership
« Reply #251 on: March 28, 2018, 08:52:39 PM »
Not at all.  In fact, UTK-Bama is one of the games that held the rest of the SEC hostage and made cross-division rivals a thing.  UGA-Auburn is the other.  So the rest of the conference gets paired off, nearly at random.  

OSU-Michigan is often a big game, and I'll watch it because it's on TV.  But I don't make a point to watch it.  It beats UNC vs NC State or Oregon-Oregon State.  But it's not appointment watching, unless both are highly ranked.



So that's part of why I want to minimize these rivalry games invading other schools' schedules, in the pod format.  You get 3 schools you play every year, and 3 only.  You want that big, sexy rival?  Great.  You have 2 more choices.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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