header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

 (Read 1761 times)

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 38395
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2021, 04:27:40 PM »
Yeah, I suspect we'll need UBI is we don't discover a bunch of jobs for semi-skilled workers.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18049
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2021, 10:50:51 AM »
This list marks 20 years since we began compiling an annual selection of the year’s most important technologies. Some, such as mRNA vaccines, are already changing our lives, while others are still a few years off. Below, you’ll find a brief description along with a link to a feature article that probes each technology in detail. We hope you’ll enjoy and explore—taken together, we believe this list represents a glimpse into our collective future.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/24/1014369/10-breakthrough-technologies-2021/
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4386
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2021, 11:33:29 AM »

I work in heavy industry - big trucks, cranes, noisy machinery, welding, mining, structures, ship-fitting, etc - and one thing that's very apparent, if not worrisome, is how hands-on mechanical aptitude will be thoroughly erroded once the 50s/60s are no longer on the job.

Take the construction and maintenance of a long-haul, pressured piping system for instance. Operations of all mechanical equipment is primarily operated by automation: charging pumps, valves, strainers, purifiers, heaters/chillers. The 20s/30s can naturally interpret the entire system through automation screens. If a pump goes offline it's not hard for them to make up for it by finding other pumps to bring online and orient flow by automation screens.

What worries me is when specific equipment requires onsite, hands-on repair. You're hard pressed to find anybody under 40 with natural instincts for taking apart, diagnosing for repair, and reassembling pumps, valves, etc. When it comes to my work I'm very thankful for my coworkers in their 50s/60s (many are Navy vets) who can be left to the greasier, hands-on side of the job.

Goes to show you how a generation (Millenial & Z) of playing video games and bitching about Star Wars (while out in the garage Dad and Grandpa (X & Boomer) fixed the lawnmower motor themselves) is quite the foreshadowing to what can be expected of differing technical aptitudes going forward.

So, I wonder if there's something more beyond the video game/lawnmower dynamic. Maybe we have fewer tinkerers, but I wonder if we're shifting them around differently. A few random guesses.

-More tinkerers are being directed toward engineering schools, which leads to a white collar-ization of the talent pool
-Many things became more complicated, so fixing say a car without messing something else up because a trickier (my dad could rebuild an engine as a teen. He cannon build the onboard computer system in my old 2003 Toyota). Thus, you have a higher barrier of entry early on. 
-Mechanical goods grew cheaper, so a lawnmower is less often fixed because you NEED  to do it, so only a really dedicated tinkerer makes the effort
-The emphasis on college in the education system and general disinterest in funding the endeavor led to a stigmatization of vocational education, which helps train those instincts and direct kids to interest in them
-You mentioned Navy vets, and I think as the military has become more automated and college became more a bridge from 18 to 22, you narrow a key path to those skills. The military has tons of machines. They have lots of people they need to find something to do with (a person I met basically said her time in the army taught her that the military is just gonna keep trying to put you to some use). More people used to go into service (esp from less privileged backgrounds). That meant more people in position to be shoved into those roles. 
-I also wonder about market forces. Are there more of those repair roles, or less. If it's less, is the older generation holding onto roles for longer? I used to work at a business with a big piece of machinery that was going off line. A huge part of the operators' job was diagnosing and swapping out pieces on the fly. But we phased that machinery out, and those guys are in a real tight spot job-wise. 

It's an interesting spot. I have family that was kinda in that cadre and just retired. 

Brutus Buckeye

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 7742
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2021, 11:44:20 AM »
The great part about spring football is how they're basically hiding it so no one can watch it.  Thanks, ESPN!


They are hiding it on free livestreams that anyone can watch. Diabolical. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7271
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2021, 01:15:26 PM »
I don't think fully autonomous vehicles will occur in the next decade. 

By "fully autonomous" I mean fully autonomous, i.e. Level 5 autonomy with no human interaction. I could see that by 2040. 

 

Brutus Buckeye

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 7742
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2021, 02:28:34 PM »
I don't think fully autonomous vehicles will occur in the next decade.

By "fully autonomous" I mean fully autonomous, i.e. Level 5 autonomy with no human interaction. I could see that by 2040.

 
All fun and games until a computer glitch accelerates you into oncoming traffic. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

MrNubbz

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9008
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2021, 02:32:05 PM »
Exactly that's what I always thought,if the 3 credit bureaus can be hacked I'd imagine so can a car's computer
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

medinabuckeye1

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 4288
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2021, 03:10:45 PM »
So, I wonder if there's something more beyond the video game/lawnmower dynamic. Maybe we have fewer tinkerers, but I wonder if we're shifting them around differently. A few random guesses.

-More tinkerers are being directed toward engineering schools, which leads to a white collar-ization of the talent pool
-Many things became more complicated, so fixing say a car without messing something else up because a trickier (my dad could rebuild an engine as a teen. He cannon build the onboard computer system in my old 2003 Toyota). Thus, you have a higher barrier of entry early on.
-Mechanical goods grew cheaper, so a lawnmower is less often fixed because you NEED  to do it, so only a really dedicated tinkerer makes the effort
-The emphasis on college in the education system and general disinterest in funding the endeavor led to a stigmatization of vocational education, which helps train those instincts and direct kids to interest in them
-You mentioned Navy vets, and I think as the military has become more automated and college became more a bridge from 18 to 22, you narrow a key path to those skills. The military has tons of machines. They have lots of people they need to find something to do with (a person I met basically said her time in the army taught her that the military is just gonna keep trying to put you to some use). More people used to go into service (esp from less privileged backgrounds). That meant more people in position to be shoved into those roles.
-I also wonder about market forces. Are there more of those repair roles, or less. If it's less, is the older generation holding onto roles for longer? I used to work at a business with a big piece of machinery that was going off line. A huge part of the operators' job was diagnosing and swapping out pieces on the fly. But we phased that machinery out, and those guys are in a real tight spot job-wise.

It's an interesting spot. I have family that was kinda in that cadre and just retired.
Another thing vis-a-vis auto repair:
When I was a kid and owned early 80's cars, if something was wrong you had to tinker with it and assess the symptoms to figure out what the problem was, then figure out what you needed to do to fix it.

Actually, backing up a bit, you had to first notice that something was wrong.

Ok, now moving to today:
I have a OBDII scanner that connects to my phone. I don't need to notice when something is wrong because a check engine light comes on to let me know. Then I plug in my scanner and my phone tells me which part to replace, it even links up to Amazon so I can order it and if I don't know how to do that repair, I go to YouTube and find a quick tutorial.

In this whole process I never really need any serious mechanical knowledge. Step-by-step directions are provided, all I have to do is follow them.

Kris60

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1801
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2021, 03:31:22 PM »
All fun and games until a computer glitch accelerates you into oncoming traffic.
I wonder how often a computer glitch would cause an accident as opposed to human error though.

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 38395
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2021, 03:35:26 PM »
I don't think fully autonomous vehicles will occur in the next decade.

By "fully autonomous" I mean fully autonomous, i.e. Level 5 autonomy with no human interaction. I could see that by 2040.
L5 by 2040 sounds about right to me.

I was wondering about fully autonomous construction.  Can you see building a building entirely with "3D printers" and robots?

2050?

Whatever happens will surprise us.

Brutus Buckeye

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 7742
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2021, 03:49:02 PM »
I wonder how often a computer glitch would cause an accident as opposed to human error though.
Less frequently, but much worse accidents. 

A human will usually try to brake as he is approaching a collision. A computer might hit the gas. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 38395
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2021, 03:55:54 PM »
We have pretty complex code running lots of things today.  I don't see evidence to frequent massive errors.

Brutus Buckeye

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 7742
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2021, 03:58:45 PM »
In San Diego a computer glitch set off their entire 4th of July fireworks show all at once.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkWbW_8aA9g
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

  • Ombudsman for the Secret Order of the Odd Fellows
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 38395
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2021, 04:22:45 PM »
What will football look like in 2050??

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.