header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

 (Read 14092 times)

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7851
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2021, 04:41:41 PM »
I wonder how often a computer glitch would cause an accident as opposed to human error though.
There was an interesting podcast I listed to which started with the question of if automated cars will have steering wheels.

It kind of tied together two incidents. With one, a pilot was letting the computer control a plane. Some instrument iced over. It would've been fine, but he freaked out, took control, crashed. The other talked about elevators. When the modern ones came around, people didn't trust them. No operator. Even though people got hurt by operator error somewhat often and it's not like elevators regularly launch folks up and down buildings. 

Granted, cars are dealing with much more complex spacial problems. The other issue is the stop and start nature of things. We  don't step into traffic because we often know the person won't stop. If we have super safe cars, we won't have that. So you might end up with the equivalent of a kid putting his foot out to hold an elevator door open, but for traffic. 

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12186
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2021, 07:25:10 PM »
I wonder how often a computer glitch would cause an accident as opposed to human error though.
The issue is that it's going to have be 100x+ better than humans before we trust it. 

Because remember, 90% of people [think they] are above-average drivers.

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7851
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2021, 09:29:58 PM »
The issue is that it's going to have be 100x+ better than humans before we trust it.

Because remember, 90% of people [think they] are above-average drivers.
I'm a proud 10 percenter, and I truly hope that I'm right and not above average. 

I'm guessing it'll be gradual. Like more people will have the high end lane assist and cruise and get used to that. Then they'll experiment with the automation features, and at some point just give themselves over to it. Granted, the tech has some ground to make up. 

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2021, 10:16:38 PM »
So this is what our league landed:

  • #1: Michigan, Illinois 
  • #2: Iowa, Ohio State 
  • #4: Purdue 
  • #9: Wisconsin 
  • #10: Maryland, Rutgers 
  • #11: Michigan State (play-in)


betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12186
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2021, 11:46:42 PM »
I'm a proud 10 percenter, and I truly hope that I'm right and not above average.

I'm guessing it'll be gradual. Like more people will have the high end lane assist and cruise and get used to that. Then they'll experiment with the automation features, and at some point just give themselves over to it. Granted, the tech has some ground to make up.
Eh. Once you get too many lawsuits from those who "give themselves over" and get hurt, you'll have issues.

This is one of those all or nothing things...

CatsbyAZ

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2783
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2021, 11:49:33 PM »
Really looking forward to this Michigan State’s tournament game Vs UCLA this Thursday.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2021, 11:29:48 AM »
We could do 100% automated cars right now, and they're VASTLY safer than human drivers.  Today.  Right now.  
But since there's no one to blame when the inevitable injury/death occurs, people don't want it.  
.
It's truly bizarre.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12186
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2021, 11:53:23 AM »
We could do 100% automated cars right now, and they're VASTLY safer than human drivers.  Today.  Right now. 
But since there's no one to blame when the inevitable injury/death occurs, people don't want it. 
.
It's truly bizarre.
Technologically, we really can't. The sensor tech and the processing power exists, but it's still in it's infancy and not ready to scale.

Waymo is probably the best of the best for full autonomy right now, and the tech and price point is astronomical, and they've still to my knowledge only shown success in a "walled garden" scenario where everything is meticulously mapped.

Tesla is the best of the semi-autonomous group, but it's not ready for every situation. I hear it's great on the freeway. I'm not sure if they've even turned it on for surface streets yet? It's still in the ADAS stage, not full autonomy.

The tech isn't ready... Or affordable... It's going to take a while.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #36 on: March 15, 2021, 11:59:01 AM »
We could put current tech out tomorrow and there would be tens of thousands of fewer auto deaths in the coming year.  
btw, I meant this, not the actual formality of a rollout and transfer over, etc.  The idea could happen now.  
.
Until we get over the lack of a culprit in accidents, it won't be widespread anytime soon.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12186
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2021, 01:20:55 PM »
We could put current tech out tomorrow and there would be tens of thousands of fewer auto deaths in the coming year. 
btw, I meant this, not the actual formality of a rollout and transfer over, etc.  The idea could happen now. 
.
Until we get over the lack of a culprit in accidents, it won't be widespread anytime soon.
Current tech?

Yeah, current tech on the highways is pretty good. I hear Tesla Autopilot and GM Super Cruise are both quite solid, and I think they're safer than current drivers. 

Current tech does *NOT* allow us to remove the steering wheel from a car, it requires driver monitoring. Super Cruise is actually really smart about that in that it will monitor the driver's eyes to make sure they're paying attention--otherwise it will disable the vehicle. Tesla is not so much--you can fall asleep in a Tesla and it'll just keep driving. 

Current tech on actual surface streets is not capable in its reasonable-cost versions (Tesla/GM), and is ridiculously expensive in its actual safe and capable versions (Waymo and others).

And BTW even current tech is currently only available at luxury vehicle pricing... The cost adder to a car is not insignificant. 

So you say "we" "could" do something... Completely ignore technology limitations and cost, and sure, we can do anything. 

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18844
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2021, 01:37:22 PM »
Jesus.  
Nevermind.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71537
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #39 on: March 15, 2021, 02:23:12 PM »
I've driven a CT6 with Super Cruise, it's impressive, you still have to keep your eyes on the road, and it's only useful for highways.

The topic here is Level 5 autonomous, we're not anywhere near that today tech wise.  Maybe in 10-15 years.

longhorn320

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Posts: 9328
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2021, 02:31:03 PM »
I've driven a CT6 with Super Cruise, it's impressive, you still have to keep your eyes on the road, and it's only useful for highways.

The topic here is Level 5 autonomous, we're not anywhere near that today tech wise.  Maybe in 10-15 years.
so is the reason we take the fun in driving away from humans based on safety

and if so why not planes and trains

why not doctors in the operating room

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 11237
  • Liked:
Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #41 on: March 15, 2021, 02:31:12 PM »
I mean look at the GPS navigation systems? If that isn't meticulously updated, it tries to send you down exit ramps that no longer exist, through construction closures, sometimes it thinks that there is a road where one isn't, and on and on and on.

Are people still paying attention? Will they be held accountable if they strike a pedestrian? Or a construction worker? Or a traffic cop?
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.