Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on Friday forecasts a rise in U.S. unemployment from the current 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent by the end of 2024, signaling potential job losses for millions amidst a contracting gross domestic product (GDP).
Their track record on predictions is not much better than mine. And a 4.4% UE rate is still pretty low. A LOT of folks (including me) have been expecting a recession for some time now, even preCOVID, year after year after year. An old saw is "An invested yield curve has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."
Certainly, Fed actions have made a slow down more likely, that has been their intent. I'm just not sure at all how anybody can predict a year in the future reliably without a lot of guesswork.
Costco stock rose $28 a share on Friday. I dunno what that means if anything. I'm a bit wealthier.
