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What if Lincoln doesn't win the election?

I always wondered how long slavery would have existed in the south had the Union not won the civil war.

I feel that mechanized labor would have slowly eroded a lot of manual labor and slavery as a whole was winding down at the end of the 1800’s.

10 more years ?
20 more years ?

I’d venture to say it would have been abolished by 1880-1895.

I'd guess before 1900, but the blacks would have remained in bad shape even so. 

BTW, this is one point at which it's useful to make a reminder... Everyone, everywhere, is all the damn same.

I call it the "Anthony Bourdain model of the world". On his show, he traveled ALL over the place. Sometimes to glitz and glamour (i.e. Copenhagen). Sometimes to war-torn or otherwise shitholes (Haiti, Cambodia, Cuba, Detroit). He traveled to places that we consider our enemies (Iran) as well as those who are sorta(?) our friends in the shadow of our enemies (Kurdistan).

And you know what his show brought to us? The idea that everyone, everywhere, is the damn same. On the ground. The real people. They're just like us. We're just like them.

They want peace and safety for their families. They want enough freedom to offer a better life for their children. They come together as families or communities and share food, merriment, and grief.

It doesn't matter what side of a border you're on. It doesn't matter what religion your parents are (which is the one you "chose" to believe in, >>90% of the time). It doesn't matter what economic system your nation purports to follow. It doesn't matter what color your skin is. All the stuff we layer on top is bullshit that's fed to us by people who want to control us by dividing us.

Everyone, everywhere, is all the damn same.

https://www.chron.com/culture/article/how-many-texans-move-california-18509867.php