I think it was in this thread but it is buried now, we were talking about High Speed Rail.
Several of us commented that, at present, Amtrack is generally slower than driving and more expensive than flying.
I think that as a big picture thing, that statement really reveals how far we are away from viable HSR. If our existing trains already cost more than flying, then we need to speed them up BY A LOT and somehow massively reduce the price at the same time. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out that probably isn't going to happen anytime soon.
I posted Population densities for the US and some other major developed nations and the US is MUCH less densely populated. This fact is why mass transit is so much less useful here. Mass transit needs density in order to have enough potential customers to be viable and with a few notable exceptions we simply don't have that density here.
Another factor is that on the economic side of things my understanding is that most European nations subsidize their rail transit in part by taxing gasoline and diesel fuel. That really turbocharges things because it hits both sides of the equation. The fuel taxes make auto travel more expensive and simultaneously the rail subsidies make rail travel less expensive.
Then I have a question, how fast does HSR have to be to make it plausible?
I was thinking about it in terms of something related to this board, going to a CFB game.
I live in Medina (hence the name) and the drive to Ohio State is just over 100 mi. It takes a little under two hours depending on traffic and how fast you drive. I've made it in under 90 minutes but not on a gameday. Per google
it is 109 mi and takes 1:43.
This seems like the range where HSR could theoretically work. It isn't far enough to fly but it is far enough that a lot of people might not like the drive. If there was an express 200 MPH train that went from Medina to the tOSU campus, that would be great. I could make the trip in a little over half an hour.
That obviously doesn't work though because Medina (pop, 28K) doesn't have enough people to justify trains to Columbus. This introduces a major problem. Realistically the train would probably go from downtown Cleveland (Tower City where the RTA, Cleveland's local trains are) to downtown Columbus (I'll just use the Statehouse). Per google
that trip is 142mi and takes 2:10 by car. Now even a 200MPH train would take take about 45 minutes. That is still pretty good except that it would take me more than 45 minutes to get to downtown Cleveland, park, and get to the train. Thus it would take me at least 90 minutes to get to downtown Columbus and then I'd still have to get from there to Ohio Stadium. The trip is now longer than simply driving there.
This sounds like a HS math problem:
- Two people leave Medina at 8 am. MedinaBuckeye1 drives South on I71 at the 70 MPH posted speed limit. MedinaBuckeye2 drives North on I71 to Tower City then, boards a waiting train, then travels South at 200MPH. At what point does MB2 overtake MB1.
- After MB2 passes MB1, he goes too far then has to travel back north from the Statehouse to Ohio Stadium, a distance of 6.4 mi.
- How quickly must MB2 travel that distance in order to beat MB1 to the Stadium?
- Tower City is 33 miles the wrong way and in the 45 minutes that it took MB2 to drive to Tower City, MB1 travelled 52.5 mi in the right direction. MB2 then began gaining on MB1 at a rate of
Tower City is 33 miles the wrong way. In the 45 minutes that it takes MB2 to drive to Tower City and board a train, MB1 will have travelled 52.5 miles in the right direction so when MB2 starts travelling on the train he will be 85.5 miles behind MB1. Then he'll gain on MB1 at 130 MPH. Thus, he'll catch MB1 in almost exactly 2/3 of an hour (so a total of 85 minutes after departure or 9:25 am at a point roughly 100 mi South of Medina.
Problem:
The Stadium is just over 100 miles South of Medina. By the time MB2 catches up to MB1, MB1 is about to take the exit ramp and park. If MB2 could just jump off the train there, that might work but he can't. He has to go another ~12 miles then get off the train, then take some form of transportation back to roughly where he passed MB1.
In my example I made the train go 200 MPH which is ~3x as fast as driving and I don't think the numbers work. It probably would need to be closer to 4x the speed of driving or 250-300 MPH to make it a seriously attractive option but I have to assume that costs rise exponentially with speed so while it is technologically feasible it would probably be insanely expensive.
I love the idea of HSR in theory but in practice I just can't come up with a way.
They guy isn't gonna get knocked around bad enough to impact any of that (I kinda doubt it'll matter at all).
TBH, the actual curveball is someone dies. If the current fella dies, no one worthwhile on the bench. If the last fella dies, the Florida fella steps in and we see how it goes.
