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Topic: In other news ...

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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22148 on: March 29, 2023, 11:43:16 AM »
I read slowly because I'm dyslexic
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22149 on: March 29, 2023, 12:07:12 PM »
Flynn’s research found that IQ scores rose by 3 to 5 points per decade, a finding that implied humans were getting gradually smarter. Cognitive researchers spent decades debating the reasons for the Great Smartening.   
“Some people thought it was nutrition, some thought it was schooling, some thought it was better parenting,” Sternberg said. Over the course of the 20th century, Americans generally ate better, stayed in school longer and refined brutalist parenting techniques.  
Flynn himself believed rising IQs reflected the growing complexity of human affairs. As farms gave way to factories, horses to cars, typewriters to computers, “it became more complicated to live in the world,” Sternberg said. “And so, IQs went up.” 

I think another factor could be lead exposure, and exposure to other brain poisons back in the day from patent medicine and the like.

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22150 on: March 29, 2023, 12:19:48 PM »
I think its tied to advancing technology internet, computers, smart phones

information is much faster 
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22151 on: March 29, 2023, 12:39:40 PM »
Districts that don't give either party an advantage/is representative of the population
It still isn't that simple and there are nonpartisan political factors as well.

I'll use Ohio as my example because I obviously know it better than others.

For more than a century up until very recently, Ohio was THE purple state. Specifically, Ohio voted for the winner in every Presidential election from 1964-2020. Kennedy did win without Ohio in 1960 but note:
  • That was an EXTREMELY close election nationally with Kennedy beating Nixon 49.72% to 49.55%
  • It was also fairly close in Ohio with Nixon winning 53.28% to 46.72%
Ohio also voted for the winner in the 1956, 1952, and 1948 elections.

Ohio did not vote for Roosevelt in 1944 but note that:
  • That was the only of Roosevelt's four elections in which he did not carry Ohio, and
  • 1944 was, BY FAR, Roosevelt's closest election.


In addition to voting for Roosevelt in his first three (successful) campaigns, Ohio also voted for the winner in the Presidential elections in 1928, 1924, 1920, 1916, 1912, 1908, 1904, 1900, and 1896.

The point being that from 1896-2020 Ohio was about as close to the center of US politics as a state could be.

During that time, Ohio had between 16 and 24 Congressional Districts.

So, what would be "fair"?
I assume that most would say as close as possible to a 50/50 split.

Even taking that as a given there are many ways to get there. Here are two extremes:
  • Say Ohio has 18 Districts (2003-2013): Draw 18 highly competitive Districts.
  • Say Ohio has 18 Districts: Draw nine strongly Republican and nine strongly Democratic Districts.

Now you might say that #1 is the obvious answer because we want highly competitive Districts. Ok, but that would be catastrophically bad for Ohio. None of Ohio's Representatives would ever have much seniority (in the HoR, seniority = power). Every time there was even a minor Blue wave it would wipe out Ohio's Republican Representatives and conversely every minor red wave would wipe out Ohio's Democratic Representatives.

Thus, for reasons that are neither partisan nor ideological it would absolutely make sense for Ohio's Republican and Democratic leaders to instead agree to option #2 with nine each strongly Republican and strongly Democratic Districts.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22152 on: March 29, 2023, 12:52:28 PM »
Gerrymandering, next step:
In Ohio as throughout the US generally, Democratic leaning voters are much more strongly clustered. 

For example, in the 2020 Presidential election Biden got nearly half the vote (45.24%) despite carrying only seven of Ohio's 88 counties:

  • Cuyahoga County - Cleveland 
  • Franklin County - Columbus 
  • Hamilton County - Cincinnati 
  • Lucas County - Toledo
  • Montgomery County - Dayton 
  • Summit County - Akron
  • Athens County - Ohio University 
The first six listed cover Ohio's six most populous cities and are Ohio's six most populous counties. The exception is Athens County which is very sparsely populated and contains Ohio University. The campus leftists outnumber the conservative permanent residents if they show up to vote. 


Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22153 on: March 29, 2023, 12:59:38 PM »
One reason given for gerrymandering is to ensure some black representation in Congress.  Of course, this also concentrates the black population in one or two districts leaving the others much more white.  Illinois #4 is a nice example of Democratic Party controlled gerrymandering.

I'd have it done by commission with some "rules" laying out some geographic limits in terms of simple geometry.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22154 on: March 29, 2023, 01:52:27 PM »

I think another factor could be lead exposure, and exposure to other brain poisons back in the day from patent medicine and the like.

There's a growing body of research that the declining crime rates that started right around the early 90s were directly related to getting rid of leaded gasoline. That was right around the time that the kids who started seeing ever-lessening lead contamination in the soil of their neighborhoods started reaching late teen / early 20s age (key demographic for criminality).

That said, I would generally ascribe to the idea that the century-long increase in IQ was partially due to improved nutrition and ability to feed the population, and partially due to increased emphasis on education that helped prepare students for taking tests like IQ tests. 

A somewhat similar thing occurred with height. 

Why Have Americans Stopped Growing Taller?

The crux is that we've largely stopped growing taller because we've stopped the things (malnutrition / calorie deficit) that caused us to be shorter than we should have been. Now that we've done that, we mostly grow as tall as we're supposed to get, but added calories and nutrition beyond that don't actually cause us to become even taller than we're supposed to be. 

I'm 6'5", but if I had been born in 1878 rather than 1978, it's likely that I would never have reached this height because I wouldn't have gotten the nutrition in my early development to allow me to achieve my height potential. 

847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22155 on: March 29, 2023, 01:56:02 PM »
One reason given for gerrymandering is to ensure some black representation in Congress.  Of course, this also concentrates the black population in one or two districts leaving the others much more white.  Illinois #4 is a nice example of Democratic Party controlled gerrymandering.

I'd have it done by commission with some "rules" laying out some geographic limits in terms of simple geometry.
Heh.

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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22156 on: March 29, 2023, 02:21:17 PM »
obviously some thought went into this
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22157 on: March 29, 2023, 03:10:34 PM »
Russian Colonel Dmitry Lisitsky, who was responsible for war crimes in Ukraine, was found dead with a gunshot wound in his home city.

The cause of his death is disputed, with conflicting reports from the Ukrainian and Russian sides – one side claims it was an elimination while the other is calling it suicide, respectively.

Yuri Butusov, who was the first to report the news to the Western world, claimed that Lisitsky was “liquidated” as retribution for the 2014 ‘Ilovaisk cauldron’ massacre in the Donetsk region, where more than 350 Ukrainian servicemen were killed after pro-Russian troops mowed down retreating Ukrainians during a ceasefire. The man responsible for the carnage was Lisitsky.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22158 on: March 29, 2023, 03:17:01 PM »
It's a hard question. 


  • Do you want districts that split as close to 50/50 R/D? 
  • Or do you want districts that are split along demographic lines where most of the inhabitants will have similar concerns/desires?

If you ask for the former, you may have a much higher likelihood of ousting a sitting Congressperson who is unresponsive to their district's needs. But at the same time, if your district is split 50/50 by party, whichever Congressperson is "representing" that district doesn't have a consistent viewpoint to represent. 

If the latter, you end up where we are, which is a 90%+ reelection rate in Congress and "safe" districts which largely skew to one party or the other. But the upside there is that if a Congressperson knows that the vast majority of people in their district is of like mind, they can feel more comfortable that they're actually representing those peoples' viewpoint. 

----------

My own personal opinion is that the direct representation model that we have is largely broken. We as Americans like to think that we can go down to "MY REPRESENTATIVE'S OFFICE" and have a conversation and get results. Because he's "my guy, and if he won't listen, I'll vote his A$$ out!"

But it doesn't work that way. Especially with 435 members of the House and 100 in the Senate. A House member on average represents somewhere around 750K people. Only 10 Senators (5 states) represent less than 1M voters. 20 Senators (10 states) represent more than 10M each. You think they care about an individual voter or their pet issues? They don't have time. Granted, they're skilled politicians, so they'll ignore you while you walk away feeling really good about how the encounter went and how much they care. But then they'll vote based on their real interest, which is party power. 

As I've said many times, a direct representation model with first past the post voting is only stable as a two-party configuration. And to have ANY committee assignments and/or power in D.C., a representative is beholden to their party FAR more than to his direct constituents. Especially with gerrymandering, because their goal is to avoid getting primary'd, not to worry that the opposite party representative is going to beat them at the polls. 

Unless you change the direct representation model with first past the post voting, you're not going to change any of this. 


bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22159 on: March 29, 2023, 03:46:44 PM »
Heh.


That whole project was an incredible bit of shooting one’s self in the foot.

847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22160 on: March 29, 2023, 03:53:55 PM »
That whole project was an incredible bit of shooting one’s self in the foot.
Shooting. Heh.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #22161 on: March 29, 2023, 04:45:35 PM »
It's a hard question.
  • Do you want districts that split as close to 50/50 R/D?
  • Or do you want districts that are split along demographic lines where most of the inhabitants will have similar concerns/desires?
Option two also inherently benefits Republicans at least as things are today.  Allow me to explain:

I mentioned upthread that in the 2020 election Biden got almost 50% in Ohio despite carrying only seven of Ohio's 88 counties.  

A key reality that most people do not realize can be neatly summarized as this:
  • Republicans generally win small majorities of large groups.  
  • Democrats generally win large majorities of small groups.  
This is only a rule of thumb so it isn't exact but you would be surprised how often it is true, by education:
  • The majority of Americans have at least a HS diploma but less than a PHD.  These people vote Republican but it is fairly close.  
  • Small minorities of Americans either do NOT have a HS diploma or have a PHD or beyond.  These people vote Democratic and it is not close at all.  
Race:
  • A majority of Americans are white and whites vote Republican but generally by less than a 2:1 margin
  • Minorities of Americans are hispanic, black, asian, and other.  These groups vote Democratic by 2:1 or greater margins.  

For this reason, if you create demographically homogenous districts you'll end up with a relatively small number of STRONGLY Democratic districts (no chance at all for a Republican) and a much larger number of "lean" Republican districts.  Democrats will pick up a few of these in any given election for local reasons but overall Republicans will win almost all of them and have a majority of the seats.  

Back to Ohio:
The six most populous counties are:
  • 1.3M Franklin (Columbus):  65-33 for Biden in 2020
  • 1.3M Cuyahoga (Cleveland):  66-32 for Biden in 2020
  • 830k Hamilton (Cincinnati):  57-41 for Biden in 2020
  • 540k Summit (Akron):  54-44 for Biden in 2020
  • 540k Montgomery (Dayton):  50-48 for Biden in 2020
  • 430k Lucas (Toledo):  57-41 for Biden in 2020

Even that doesn't really show the disparity though because Ohio's counties are generally large enough to encompass not just the urban core of the parenthetically named cities but also a large number of suburbs.  In the City of Cleveland proper, Biden won 80-19 and that wasn't even his strongest community within Cuyahoga County.  Biden won Warrensville Heights, East Cleveland, Highland Hills, and Bedford Heights with 96%, 95%, 94%, and 90%.  

Nationally it is exceedingly rare to find an area even as large as a single precinct let alone an entire city where Republicans win more than about two-thirds to three-quarters of the vote.  

The City of Cleveland proper along with the aforementioned four suburbs where Biden won 90%+ have a combined population approximately equal to one Congressional District.  Ohio currently has 15 Congressional Districts.  If you assumed that Ohio was 50/50 split and lumped Cleveland and those four suburbs into one 85-15 Democratic District what you would be left with fourteen districts to draw in an area that was 52.5% R and 47.5% D.  

So Ohio could have one very strongly Democratic District (85-15) and fourteen competitive but Republican leaning Districts (52.5-47.5).  Democrats couldn't do the same thing in reverse because Republican voters are more dispersed so it is nearly impossible to create a Congressional District that is any more than about 2:1 Republican.  

Mathematically, about the best the Democrats could do would be to create two 67-33 Republican Districts and 13 52.5-47.5 Democratic Districts.  

Realistically, neither party generally wants "their" districts to be "only" 52.5-47.5 because that is too close for comfort.  They'll still lose elections in "their" districts from time to time.  So you get a set-up like Ohio now.  Republicans drew the most recent maps and in the 2022 Congressional Elections Republicans carried the popular vote by 56-44 but took two thirds of the seats.  The breakdown from most R to most D was:
  • 74-25 R in District2
  • 69-30 R in District4
  • 69-30 R in District12
  • 67-33 R in District5
  • 67-32 R in District6
  • 64-35 R in District8
  • 61-38 R in District10
  • 61-38 R in District14
  • 57-43 R in District15
  • 55-44 R in District7
  • 52-47 D in District1 - Democratic Gain
  • 52-47 D in District13
  • 56-43 D in District9
  • 70-30 D in District3
  • 77-22 D in District11

There is a lot of noise in individual races.  Although all of them were contested by both parties, most were not seriously contested with the "out" party simply running some sacrificial lamb who had no money, no support from their party, and no chance.  The 2020 Presidential Election results by Congressional District are a better barometer but back then Ohio Still had 16 Districts so they don't line up exactly with the 15 from 2022.  Here are the 2020 US Presidential Election results in each of Ohio's then 16 Districts again sorted R->D:
  • 72-27 R in D6
  • 67-31 R in D4
  • 66-32 R in D8
  • 65-33 R in D7
  • 62-37 R in D5
  • 57-42 R in D16
  • 56-43 R in D2
  • 56-42 R in D15
  • 54-45 R in D14
  • 52-46 R in D12
  • 51-47 R in D10
  • 51-48 R in D1
  • 51-48 D in D13
  • 59-31 D in D9
  • 70-28 D in D3
  • 80-19 D in D11
It was only this way because this occurred ten years after the maps were drawn.  D6 got a lot more Republican during that time while D1 and D13 got a lot more Democratic.  

D3 (Columbus) and D11 (Cleveland) were what is called "packed" districts where the Republicans stuffed as many Democrats as possible into just one district.  D9 (Toledo) and D13 (Youngstown) were intended to be but things changed over time.  Mahoning County (Youngstown) hadn't voted Republican in a Presidential Election since Nixon's landslide in 1972 but backed Trump in a losing effort in 2020 which tells you how dramatic the swing has been in Youngstown.  Tim Ryan represented Youngstown in Congress for many years and ran for Senator in 2022.  Part of the reason was that his district trended so far Republican that the Republicans were able to draw him a REALLY tough race had he stayed in the House.  

Packing and Cracking:
A lot of people seem to think that heavily Republican Districts are drawn by Republicans and heavily Democratic Districts are drawn by Democrats but it is actually the opposite.  The goal is to pack your opponent's voters into a small number of overwhelmingly opposition Districts and then give yourself a large number of slightly pro Districts.  Ie, Ohio's 15 Districts currently (drawn by Republicans) are 10 R and 5 D.  Note, however, that Republicans missed slightly.  Two of the five Democratic Districts are only barely Democratic (both 52-47).  They were obviously intended as "lean R" districts but things changed.  


Note also that this isn't done in a vacuum.  The names of the existing Representatives are known to everyone.  If you are a Republican on the committee that draws the maps you are going to be lobbied by your fellow Republicans that hold districts to make their districts more safe.  Conversely, if you are a Republican on the committee that draws the maps and you want to redraw a district to take out a sitting Democratic Representative, making their District 51-49 R isn't going to be enough.  Incumbent Representatives have lots of money and name recognition so a sitting Representative is usually going to win a race in a District that is only 51-49 against them.  If you want to take somebody out you are going to have to stick them in something like a 60-40 District.  Frankly, it usually isn't worth it.  Rather than trying to take out an opposition Representative the party drawing the maps usually just gives that sitting Representative an easier election by packing as many of their voters into their district as possible.  When there is an opportunity to take out an opponent it is usually done by combining two opposition Districts.  This happened in Ohio with the 2012 maps.  Longtime Cleveland Democratic Representative Dennis Kucinich and longtime Toledo Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur got stuck in a single District and fought it out in the Democratic Primary where Kaptur won.  

Life is also obviously a lot easier when you are growing than when you are shrinking.  Ohio has been shrinking (relative to the US as a whole) since long before I was born, Congressional Delegation size:
  • 15 2023-2033 down one
  • 16 2013-2023 down two
  • 18 2003-2013 down one
  • 19 1993-2003 down two
  • 21 1983-1993 down two
  • 23 1973-1983 down one
  • 24 1963-1973 UP one
  • 23 1953-1963 even
  • 23 1943-1953 down one
  • 24 1933-1943  UP two
  • 22 1923-1933 even
  • 22 1913-1923 UP one
  • 21 1903-1913 even
  • 21 1893-1903 even
  • 21 1883-1893 UP one
  • 20 1873-1883 UP one
  • 19 1863-1873 down two
  • 21 1853-1863 even
  • 21 1843-1853 UP two
  • 19 1833-1843 UP five
  • 14 1823-1833 UP eight
  • 6 1813-1823 UP five
  • 1 1803-1813 Ohio became a State in 1803 so was not included in the census of 1800 and had just one seat until the first census as a state in 1810.  
I was born in the mid 1970's when Ohio had 23 Representatives, close to their peak of 24.  Now Ohio is down to 15.  Ohio hadn't had that small of a Congressional Delegation since prior to the 1840 census when they had just 14.  


 

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