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Topic: In other news ...

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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19390 on: October 06, 2022, 09:56:39 AM »
so are prices at the pumps going up today, just on the message from OPEC?

or will it be 20-30 days from now when that oil actually makes it through the refinery and is delivered to stations?
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utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19391 on: October 06, 2022, 10:00:37 AM »
From my observations in recent years, prices go up almost immediately upon the mere whispers of any bad news, and don't drop until well after that "high-priced oil" is flushed through the system.


MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19392 on: October 06, 2022, 10:02:19 AM »
Time to start shooting Oil Execs,freeking a fire in Indianapolis what 2 months back now one in Toledo? Sure prolly a garbage can at a McDonalds next to the refinery
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19393 on: October 06, 2022, 10:02:36 AM »
that's my observation as well

Cincy seems to think it's mostly supply and demand
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19394 on: October 06, 2022, 10:03:39 AM »
Time to start shooting Oil Execs,freeking a fire in Indianapolis what 2 months back now one in Toledo? Sure prolly a garbage can at a McDonalds next to the refinery
that's how Putin handles it

well, the poor fellows might accidentally fall out a window
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MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19395 on: October 06, 2022, 10:03:52 AM »
that's my observation as well

Cincy seems to think it's mostly supply and demand
Cincy has a portfolio loaded in Oil stocks
  
« Last Edit: October 06, 2022, 10:10:20 AM by MrNubbz »
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19396 on: October 06, 2022, 10:25:13 AM »
From my observations in recent years, prices go up almost immediately upon the mere whispers of any bad news, and don't drop until well after that "high-priced oil" is flushed through the system.
This does happen, but nearly every gas station is "independently owned", a very few are owned by the majors.

Costco is an exception, they price depending on the delivery.

Temp430

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19397 on: October 06, 2022, 10:27:05 AM »
To many running the US right now high gas prices are a goal.  But they don't like the political blow back so they'll make sounds bemoaning the higher prices and point to faux villians, especially if they're up for re-election.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19398 on: October 06, 2022, 10:34:45 AM »
that's my observation as well

Cincy seems to think it's mostly supply and demand
Yes, and I think this is obvious in the history of pricing.  (And no, while I own a couple oil majors, they are a very minor part of my holdings.)


utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19399 on: October 06, 2022, 10:51:06 AM »
It's correlated to supply and demand but there are some obvious glaring examples of reactionary pricing and tacit collusion among sellers.

The fact that Costco consistently lags price increases and leads price decreases compared to its consumer competitors, is demonstrative of this.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19400 on: October 06, 2022, 10:54:15 AM »
The gas station on the Indian Reservation is cheaper than Costco. They are exempted from many of the taxes. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19401 on: October 06, 2022, 10:59:38 AM »
I want to try to explain a little bit about fuel prices here.

First, one of my roles is to do Financials for what is basically a glorified gas station (we sell avgas and Jet-A not 87 Octane for your car but the principles are the same.

We buy fuel in huge quantities (5-10k gallons per delivery) and obviously sell in much smaller quantities.
From my observations in recent years, prices go up almost immediately upon the mere whispers of any bad news, and don't drop until well after that "high-priced oil" is flushed through the system.
We'd LOVE to do this but, as a practical matter, we can't. 

We set our price to be about $1/gallon over our cost. That is roughly what we need to cover our expenses. However, our price is always $1/gal over the CURRENT cost, not $1/gal over what we actually paid for the fuel in our tank. Thus, when the price of fuel rises we show huge profits and when the price of fuel drops we show big losses. We have to do it this way because we can't overcharge for old (expensive) fuel when prices are dropping because our customers would go somewhere else. On the flip side, when prices rise we raise ours immediately even though the inventory was purchased at old prices for two reasons:
  • The extra profits make up for our inevitable losses when prices drop, and
  • Although the inventory was purchased at lower prices it will be replaced at higher prices so we have to keep up.


utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19402 on: October 06, 2022, 11:07:13 AM »
I want to try to explain a little bit about fuel prices here.

First, one of my roles is to do Financials for what is basically a glorified gas station (we sell avgas and Jet-A not 87 Octane for your car but the principles are the same.

We buy fuel in huge quantities (5-10k gallons per delivery) and obviously sell in much smaller quantities.We'd LOVE to do this but, as a practical matter, we can't.

We set our price to be about $1/gallon over our cost. That is roughly what we need to cover our expenses. However, our price is always $1/gal over the CURRENT cost, not $1/gal over what we actually paid for the fuel in our tank. Thus, when the price of fuel rises we show huge profits and when the price of fuel drops we show big losses. We have to do it this way because we can't overcharge for old (expensive) fuel when prices are dropping because our customers would go somewhere else. On the flip side, when prices rise we raise ours immediately even though the inventory was purchased at old prices for two reasons:
  • The extra profits make up for our inevitable losses when prices drop, and
  • Although the inventory was purchased at lower prices it will be replaced at higher prices so we have to keep up.



I mentioned tacit collusion among retail sellers for these reasons.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #19403 on: October 06, 2022, 11:12:22 AM »
Brief fuel economics:

The big problem with fuel is that both the supply AND the demand are fairly inelastic in the short term.

Supply:
Producers can theoretically pump more or less but as a practical matter their major cost I'd the initial fixed cost of drilling the well and setting up the infrastructure (pumps, tanks, etc). Their marginal cost is practically zero because they don't pay for the oil they pump. Consequently, even if they are selling at a loss (considering their initial investment), they are much better off to sell at a loss than to not sell and lose even more. 

Increasing supply takes months or years. You can't just spontaneously wish an oil well into existence the day the price of crude hits your break-even price. Offshore oil rigs obviously take even longer so while price increases do cause production to increase, there is a long lead time. 

Demand:
When the price of gas increases we (consumers) have only a limited ability to cut use in the short-term. 

In the long term we can do things like:

  • Trade the Suburan for an Equinox
  • Trade the Equinox for a Prius
  • Trade the Prius for a Tesla
  • Move closer to work
  • Etc
In the short-term we are generally stuck. We have to go to work and the only way to get there (for most of us) is whatever car is IN the garage. We can't just wave a wand and convert our gas-guzzling Suburban into and Equinox, Prius, or Tesla.


 

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