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Topic: In other news ...

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17514 on: June 21, 2022, 05:34:57 PM »
But it's not static, friend. 
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17515 on: June 21, 2022, 05:38:22 PM »
Few things are static in life, some may appear to be.  Entropy is winning, and will win.  The End.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17516 on: June 21, 2022, 05:50:41 PM »
.....so you agree with me.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17517 on: June 21, 2022, 05:57:14 PM »
I don't have any problem with results being announced in the East before polls close in Hawaii.  

FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17518 on: June 21, 2022, 06:06:31 PM »
Dewey Defeats Truman Chicago Daily Tribune Signed Newspaper
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17519 on: June 21, 2022, 06:09:40 PM »
The reasons given for the outcome are many

Again its not that they were of but that most were off favoring the dems

Im assuming that any analysis of poll accuracy looks at the polls at the time of the election

Im not saying this is on purpose as there may be valid reasons why the dems are favored inaccurately

Im only saying this is not new and has been repeated for many past elections

This year is no different as I believe the polls favor the dems by 2 to 4 points from what the actual will turn out to be
Yes. I’m aware that you don’t care about the why. I however remain interested.

I suppose they might need more adjustments for folks who enjoy lying to pollsters.

bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17520 on: June 21, 2022, 06:15:25 PM »
I despise polls.

Main reason?

They cause many people to simply stay home, thinking their candidate has no chance.

Voter suppression, in a way.
That’s an interesting view. It’s interesting because of course if you think your candidate has it in the bag, you might well get the same thing (and people often have).

One thing I do like is that polls seem like they’ve dipped considerably in perceived importance across the past five years. It’s not because we understand how to interpret the data much better (as you said, the “no chance” misnomer), but they are less front of mind in the discourse.

FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17521 on: June 21, 2022, 06:15:41 PM »
or perhaps the polls shouldn't be biased

left leaning.    like the media and polling organizations
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17522 on: June 21, 2022, 06:17:07 PM »
One thing I do like is that polls seem like they’ve dipped considerably in perceived importance across the past five years. It’s not because we understand how to interpret the data much better (as you said, the “no chance” misnomer), but they are less front of mind in the discourse.
because many folks believe less and less of what is reported by the media
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17523 on: June 21, 2022, 06:18:10 PM »
I used to be involved at times with "polling".  It was product evaluation, really, I'd be on the fringes, but I'd see the questionaires ahead of time, and the results.  One statistican, a fellow I liked a lot, told me about 10% of any rep group is checking boxes at random, or intentionally misrepresenating their experiences.  They could usually cull the former with questions asked different ways, they'd get contradictory responses and probably delete the response.  The others would be included if they were consistent.

Good polling is really a science and rather involved, and of course getting a true sample of the population is a challenge.  I went back and looked at various polls in GA statewide elections and the final polls were all very close to the final outcome, without a point or two.

Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17524 on: June 21, 2022, 06:19:05 PM »
because many folks believe less and less of what is reported by the media
I disagree, I think what folks believe is what they WANT to believe, and they will find a news outlet that tells them that, confirmation bias.  They don't believe anything contrary of course.

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17525 on: June 21, 2022, 06:26:03 PM »
I disagree, I think what folks believe is what they WANT to believe, and they will find a news outlet that tells them that, confirmation bias.  They don't believe anything contrary of course.
course its also possible people tend to shy away from outlets that have been wrong a lot too

I think over time folks have an develop an internal feeling of whats right and whats wrong

a listing of values sort of that when they find an outlet that matches these internal rules to live by they will tend to tune them in more often

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17526 on: June 21, 2022, 07:34:52 PM »
course its also possible people tend to shy away from outlets that have been wrong a lot too

I think over time folks have an develop an internal feeling of whats right and whats wrong

a listing of values sort of that when they find an outlet that matches these internal rules to live by they will tend to tune them in more often


This is both oddly over charitable and kinda def contradictory.

It also somewhat reverses most peoples’ interaction with media.

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17527 on: June 21, 2022, 08:12:20 PM »
This is both oddly over charitable and kinda def contradictory.

It also somewhat reverses most peoples’ interaction with media.
Those are fancy words

Now tell us what you mean
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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