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Topic: In other news ...

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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17500 on: June 21, 2022, 10:50:27 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on June 21, 2022, 10:43:02 AM
Sure, that group was "least accurate in decades", I'm not talking about one set of polling data.

These errors of “unusual magnitude” resulted in the worst performance of national polls in 40 years; state polls were their least accurate in 20 years (as far back as records go).


ok look at 2016 same story


https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/


for whatever reason polls favor the dems from 2 to 4 points when compared to actual results
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MrNubbz

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17501 on: June 21, 2022, 10:55:48 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2022, 09:27:37 AM
My property taxes went DOWN last year. That has never happened to me in my life.

The value of this home has shot up like I've never seen too.
I'll contact the County Treasure's Dept. for an updated assessment i know the guilt must be killing you
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17502 on: June 21, 2022, 11:09:29 AM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on June 21, 2022, 10:50:27 AM
ok look at 2016 same story


https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/


for whatever reason polls favor the dems from 2 to 4 points when compared to actual results
The weirdest part about the polling experience is the time element. You run polls basically all year, which often give different numbers, and then at the end, people compare all of them tot he final outcome.

If things swing six points in the next poll, then the last one will be stripped of meaning.

(I’d be interested if we ever get a sense for what adjustment isn’t being made. The theories presented in that piece are interesting. I feel like we had a discussion here at one point when folks were excited that they’d fibbed to pollsters, so perhaps that’s an element to consider)
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17503 on: June 21, 2022, 11:43:47 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on June 21, 2022, 11:09:29 AM
The weirdest part about the polling experience is the time element. You run polls basically all year, which often give different numbers, and then at the end, people compare all of them tot he final outcome.

If things swing six points in the next poll, then the last one will be stripped of meaning.

(I’d be interested if we ever get a sense for what adjustment isn’t being made. The theories presented in that piece are interesting. I feel like we had a discussion here at one point when folks were excited that they’d fibbed to pollsters, so perhaps that’s an element to consider)
The reasons given for the outcome are many

Again its not that they were of but that most were off favoring the dems

Im assuming that any analysis of poll accuracy looks at the polls at the time of the election

Im not saying this is on purpose as there may be valid reasons why the dems are favored inaccurately 

Im only saying this is not new and has been repeated for many past elections

This year is no different as I believe the polls favor the dems by 2 to 4 points from what the actual will turn out to be
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17504 on: June 21, 2022, 11:55:06 AM »
I despise polls.

Main reason?

They cause many people to simply stay home, thinking their candidate has no chance.

Voter suppression, in a way.
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17505 on: June 21, 2022, 11:55:45 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on June 21, 2022, 10:55:48 AM
I'll contact the County Treasure's Dept. for an updated assessment i know the guilt must be killing you
It's makeup for being raped in Illinois for 33 years.
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17506 on: June 21, 2022, 12:01:16 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2022, 11:55:06 AM
I despise polls.

Main reason?

They cause many people to simply stay home, thinking their candidate has no chance.

Voter suppression, in a way.
thats one of the many reasons given for polling inaccuracy 

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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17507 on: June 21, 2022, 12:04:23 PM »
Ive been polls several times in the past

in fact so many times that I started playing games with them

one time Im a white supremist the next time Im a give money to the poor dem my pronouns are he, his and him
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17508 on: June 21, 2022, 12:38:13 PM »
I don't despite polls, I factor them into my information set.  That they are occasionally off a bit is news because it's rare, and there is that MOE thing.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17509 on: June 21, 2022, 05:07:55 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 21, 2022, 11:55:06 AM
I despise polls.

Main reason?

They cause many people to simply stay home, thinking their candidate has no chance.

Voter suppression, in a way.
Polls are fine to me.  But I'll forever be astounded that presidential results are released in the east before polling closes out west.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17510 on: June 21, 2022, 05:11:10 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on June 21, 2022, 10:22:19 AM
Amen brother. 

Joe Burden ran on:



-“ I will be a moderate, not progressive. “
  This is too humorous to even react to.
Well he saw how a moderate democrat was treated by republicans for 8 years, right up close.  Same shit, no matter what he'd do.  
.
It's sort of a "ha-ha" for both sides:  the left thought Bush was bad/incompetent.....until Trump showed up.
The right thought Obama was bad...until Biden won.  
.
You all deserve each other.
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17511 on: June 21, 2022, 05:22:04 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 21, 2022, 05:07:55 PM
Polls are fine to me.  But I'll forever be astounded that presidential results are released in the east before polling closes out west. 
Basically, any early release is going to confirm what was already known, NY state goes Dem, Alabama goes Rep, some states are too early to call.  It's unusual for there to much new information before the polls close except maybe Hawaii/Alaska.  Close elections go well into morning, and perhaps for days, and not close elections, well, they aren't close, it didn't matter.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17512 on: June 21, 2022, 05:24:00 PM »
You're advocating for releasing outcomes before everyone has voted.  Can we do that for all elections? 
Shit, why even hold presidential elections in Alabama and NY?
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Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17513 on: June 21, 2022, 05:28:27 PM »
Many states are foregone conclusions before the election, and they get decided quickly, and the "news" is fully expected.  Releasing said news doesn't impact anything.

This is known.
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