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Topic: In other news ...

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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17108 on: June 04, 2022, 10:10:53 AM »
That's what I'm getting at. We have enough proven fields to do it. There needs to be incentives to do so.
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17109 on: June 04, 2022, 10:15:10 AM »
the primary benefit would be we cant be held hostage

...

hell we might even be able to export some
So I'm not totally sure what the first part means. I suppose if everyone wanted to shut us off, we would be able to be held hostage. But we'd still very much be subject to price spikes like the one's we're experiencing. After all, in capitalism, price drives it all)

Now the exporting some thing is interesting because it gets into trade balance and differentiated goods. Even when we have a net negative balance of trade for oil, we still export a good bit. Sometimes we import some oil, have it processed, export it, or vice versa. Our chemist can probably explain more on that front. 

But anyway, through April, we were on a run of seven months of being net exporters of petroleum (the May data isn't out yet). It'll be interesting to see if that trend holds or breaks back. 

bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17110 on: June 04, 2022, 10:23:51 AM »
we should be exporting enuff to shut off russian oil completely
The economics of such a thing would be ... tricky, if not impossible. 

You'd just crater the price of oil and gas to a point where US companies would simply cut workers and delay production. Other countries have an advantage of sorts, simply because the people in charge often don't care about their people/workers (and they're SO reliant on oil sales). So they can chase more desperate policies and under price to get something out of it, while our more independent companies react more rationally to economic incentives. 

Now in a pure economic sense, that would be them giving us free value, but it would mean we'd not be a net exporter, which historically has been a bit of a shortsighted end goal. 

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17111 on: June 04, 2022, 10:34:20 AM »


But anyway, through April, we were on a run of seven months of being net exporters of petroleum (the May data isn't out yet). It'll be interesting to see if that trend holds or breaks back.
Thats news to me

are you saying we currently produce all the petroleum the US needs and export some on top of that

I dont think so

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« Last Edit: June 04, 2022, 10:41:01 AM by longhorn320 »
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FearlessF

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17112 on: June 04, 2022, 10:40:45 AM »
from what I've read, the oil being sold by Russia today is selling at a reduced price

I understand of they keep dropping the price they will sell oil

but, if we could cause Russia to drop the price further it would hurt their economy more

flooding the world market with oil, diesel, natural gas, and other things that Russia exports would be the goal
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17113 on: June 04, 2022, 11:07:14 AM »
Thats news to me

are you saying we currently produce all the petroleum the US needs and export some on top of that

I dont think so

please show support for this
Link

The phrasing "we currently produce all the petroleum the US needs and export some on top of that" is a bit of a misnomer. We are net exporters. But the nature of modern economics are that we're never going to be in a position where we produce 100 percent of what we need and then send off the rest. Even in 2020, when the US became a net exporter for the first time, we still imported a lot of oil (a lot from Canada), but we exported more. 

It's very unlikely we'll get to a point where we only consume oil we produce and send off the rest, and if we somehow could, it would very likely be economically inefficient for us. 

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17114 on: June 04, 2022, 12:19:17 PM »
Link

The phrasing "we currently produce all the petroleum the US needs and export some on top of that" is a bit of a misnomer. We are net exporters. But the nature of modern economics are that we're never going to be in a position where we produce 100 percent of what we need and then send off the rest. Even in 2020, when the US became a net exporter for the first time, we still imported a lot of oil (a lot from Canada), but we exported more.

It's very unlikely we'll get to a point where we only consume oil we produce and send off the rest, and if we somehow could, it would very likely be economically inefficient for us.
looking at your link what is NGL

if its natural gas then it muddies the view of petroleum

making it simple daily consumption of oil = 18 mil daily production of oil = 11 mil

we are shy by 7 mil a day
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847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17115 on: June 04, 2022, 12:43:25 PM »
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17116 on: June 04, 2022, 12:43:31 PM »
looking at your link what is NGL

if its natural gas then it muddies the view of petroleum

making it simple daily consumption of oil = 18 mil daily production of oil = 11 mil

we are shy by 7 mil a day
For my clarification, where is that consumption number coming from?

That NGL is “natural gas liquids.” So to be clear, we’re not talking about energy or processed fuel, we’re talking just crude oil?

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17117 on: June 04, 2022, 12:50:17 PM »
For my clarification, where is that consumption number coming from?

That NGL is “natural gas liquids.” So to be clear, we’re not talking about energy or processed fuel, we’re talking just crude oil?
ok let me ask my question differently

If our total production of oil is 11,000.000 gal a day and our consumption is 18,000,000 gal a day

where do we get the oil that we export

imports are pegged at 8,000,000 gal a day which makes sense but on top of this we are supposed to export 8,000,000 which is a mystery to me.
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17118 on: June 04, 2022, 01:26:56 PM »
ok let me ask my question differently

If our total production of oil is 11,000.000 gal a day and our consumption is 18,000,000 gal a day

where do we get the oil that we export

imports are pegged at 8,000,000 gal a day which makes sense but on top of this we are supposed to export 8,000,000 which is a mystery to me.
Again, remind me of where that 18 million number comes from (it's barrels, not gallons, BTW). If I know where that is I can better say if that is "petroleum," which includes natural gas liquids. Otherwise we're talking apples and oranges. 

The question overall seems to be muddling a lot of questions. Who has pegged that import number? You seem to have a lot of things spun around and stuck together, which seems to be leading to the confusion. 

I'll answer what I think is a type of question you're trying to get at. If we produce say 15 million barrels of petroleum and consume 15 million, there could and almost assuredly is some amount of importing and exporting, owing to how different companies do business and how things are refined (i.e., you could import crude and then sell it as gasoline to whoever). We don't just use all the local oil/petroleum/whatnot first and then go to the foreign stuff. (the same way that we don't drive all the fords first, and then fill out the rest of cars with imports)

It still feels like there's a lot of imprecision in what we're getting at here, which might lead to a reality that "energy" independence is more catchy slogan that tangible policy goal (or wise economic goal). This is not to say that expanding our capability and shrinking reliance on things like oil are not worthy goals for a variety of reasons. These generally are good. But we'll still be subject to oil shocks and such as long as we still use the stuff, which will be for a long, long time. 

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17119 on: June 04, 2022, 01:40:17 PM »
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bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17120 on: June 04, 2022, 02:10:08 PM »
Oil Production

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production

Oil Use

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20the%20United%20States,day%20over%20consumption%20in%202020.

I could have chosen from dozens of sites

11 mil bar produced

19 mil bar used

where do the exports come from
One of those is crude oil, the other is petroleum, which includes NGL.

The first sentence of that second page: “Only a small amount of crude oil is directly consumed in the United States.”

Note: we are a net importer of crude oil. I wouldn’t argue that. But if that’s the case, the 19 million isn’t a number that matters. 
« Last Edit: June 04, 2022, 02:16:06 PM by bayareabadger »

longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #17121 on: June 04, 2022, 02:49:04 PM »
Im talking crude oil

total production is 11,000,000 BL day

Total use is 18,000,000 BL day

These are facts which can be found at many sites

Where do we get crude oil to export

and ys most of the crude oil produced in the US is used in the US so Im not sure where you find otherwise
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