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Topic: In other news ...
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grillrat · « **Reply #17066 on:** June 03, 2022, 12:05:55 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2022, 04:48:25 PM

Folks like me couldn't travel in 2020, and didn't much in 2021, which meant we weren't spending money on travel. That money accumulated, in effect, and now folks are traveling, which increases demand, a lot, air lines are full, folks are driving a lot, and the economy snapped back quickly last year, we had very high GDP growth, much of which is dependent on petroleum. The stimulus monies were just added to all that, free money, let's hit the road.

According to data I have seen though, travel is back to pre-pandemic levels. As in, 100%, not 150%.

"North America: After a resilient 2021, traffic to/from/within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 as the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends, and with ongoing improvements in international travel. In 2022, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions."'
IATA - Air Passenger Numbers to Recover in 2024

Airlines are not stupid. Ever since 2001, they have whittled down the number of flights to the point where every flight is as full as possible. I have flown at least 30 times in the past 15 years. I have yet to be on a flight that was not at least 75% full, and probably 80% of the time there were no empty seats at all.

As for vehicular travel, I don't have data for the past few months, but road travel appears to be back to pre-pandemic levels, but again, not surpassing 2019 levels.

Highway Travel - All Systems | Tyler Data & Insights (bts.gov)

I think you are exaggerating the effect of the stimulus checks. Yes, absolutely, some people did not particularly need it and got a boon to their finances, but to others, it seriously was the difference between staying afloat and being on the streets. I read an article recently about how the pandemic affected people's finances. The results they found were that it kinda created a bit of a have and have-not exaggeration. Those that had the ability to save, did, and are emerging from the pandemic in a better financial position to splurge a little, but for those that couldn't, what savings they did have were affected.

"A separate survey by T. Rowe Price painted an even bleaker picture, with nearly 70% of respondents saying their financial well-being had been negatively impacted by COVID-19, citing layoffs, reduced work hours/salary cuts, and overall less income as the top three reasons. Prior to the pandemic, 71% said they had a sufficient emergency fund. Now, 42% (of those) say they need to replenish their emergency fund."

I also found this article, which while it was obviously "wrong" in its projection, the gas prices were expected to fall based upon production versus consumption. These numbers were based upon projected travel that was already considering the expected recovery of the travel industry.
Gas prices should drop below $3 per gallon in 2022, forecast says (usatoday.com)

The fly in the ointment? Russia invades Ukraine. Chaos and uncertainty are bad for a market. Oil production isn't particularly down right now, to my knowledge, it's just that the usual flow directions are in flux (Russia is going to export a lot less, the US is going to start exporting more, etc.). So why the higher prices? My opinion, the gas industry raises their prices to build up a buffer of money for if the crap really hits the fan (which, in fairness is a possibility). This way if things go sideways, they can operate at a loss for a period of time and still keep their shareholders happy because of the 1 year / 5 year average. As I said before, it's a money grab. It's just (unfortunately) justifiable enough that we can't do anything about it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #17067 on:** June 03, 2022, 04:29:06 AM »

Maybe so, it seems quite different to me as I search for hotel rooms and rental cars, things I used to find with ease, and now can't.

Our flight to LAX is full, according to the seating chart. I do believe demand for petroleum globally has exceeded easy supply, perhaps OPEC hasn't come back in to full production.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #17068 on:** June 03, 2022, 06:40:17 AM »

ATL is packed at 0630

Cincydawg · « **Reply #17069 on:** June 03, 2022, 06:41:27 AM »

Precheck line

847badgerfan · « **Reply #17070 on:** June 03, 2022, 07:02:17 AM »

Air travel during Covid was great, minus wearing the ineffective masks of course. No lines anywhere, and a row to yourself on the plane.

I should get special treatment from the airlines, as I was one of the ones who kept them open for 2 years...

847badgerfan · « **Reply #17071 on:** June 03, 2022, 07:28:24 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2022, 04:36:05 PM

What specifically has he done? Delay leases or stop fracking on Federal lands? Oil companies have leases for 3-4 years, and most oil production is on private land in the US. Stop the pipeline? It wouldn't be built yet anyway, and of course it relates to tar sands oil (bitumen) from Canada, and that oil is being refined anyway (shipped by rail, at some increase in cost, and pipeline). It also would have shipped less than has been released from the SPR anyway, which hasn't made much of a dent.

Brandon's EOs were largely folderol, meaningless, meant to appease part of his base.

It's the messaging. Markets react to signals from Government too, you know??

The proof is there, from the man himself (and not walked back):

“Here’s the situation. And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”

GopherRock · « **Reply #17072 on:** June 03, 2022, 07:39:18 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2022, 07:02:17 AM

Air travel during Covid was great, minus wearing the ineffective masks of course. No lines anywhere, and a row to yourself on the plane.

I should get special treatment from the airlines, as I was one of the ones who kept them open for 2 years...

My wife and I flew through LAX in February 2021, and the place was so quiet that it looked like the back end of the zombie apocalypse. Kinda weird, considering the place is a zoo normally.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #17073 on:** June 03, 2022, 07:53:42 AM »

We had to travel to ORD quite a lot for a while, as I transitioned my company to younger partners. Probably 20 flights between March 2020 through the end of 2021. Yeah, ORD was mostly a ghost town. Even some of the restaurants shuttered. It's all back open now, and very busy.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #17074 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:01:00 AM »

How they get luggage sorted amazes me

847badgerfan · « **Reply #17075 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:30:37 AM »

Remember when Monday Night Baseball was a thing?

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #17076 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:32:27 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2022, 04:36:05 PM

What specifically has he done? Delay leases or stop fracking on Federal lands? Oil companies have leases for 3-4 years, and most oil production is on private land in the US. Stop the pipeline? It wouldn't be built yet anyway, and of course it relates to tar sands oil (bitumen) from Canada, and that oil is being refined anyway (shipped by rail, at some increase in cost, and pipeline). It also would have shipped less than has been released from the SPR anyway, which hasn't made much of a dent.

Brandon's EOs were largely folderol, meaningless, meant to appease part of his base.

What the Biden adminstration did was to put up road blocks on the permiting process for the infrastructure needed to support the drilling and production on those leases. That allowed them to have that red herring of a talking point stating that the oil companies have thousands of leases they are not using. (If you cannot get your product from the well to the refiinery, it is worthless). Permits that used to take a few days to get approval were taking months or longer or never even being addressed. This causes major uncertainy in the market not knowing if they will ever be permitted to get at those oil deposits. And as we all know, uncertainy in any speculative market will cause a rise in prices of that commodity.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #17077 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:35:39 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2022, 04:48:25 PM

Folks like me couldn't travel in 2020, and didn't much in 2021, which meant we weren't spending money on travel. That money accumulated, in effect, and now folks are traveling, which increases demand, a lot, air lines are full, folks are driving a lot, and the economy snapped back quickly last year, we had very high GDP growth, much of which is dependent on petroleum. The stimulus monies were just added to all that, free money, let's hit the road.

You are right about the travel aspect. However that does not explain the lower labor participation rate that is as low as it has ever been. THAT is a big part of the problem. Those people that are not working are still eating and consuming other goods and services, yet are not working to offset their costs. That money is being funneled by gov't programs that are being supplied by money that we do not have. Thus we have to many dollars chasing to few goods and services.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #17078 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:39:14 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2022, 08:59:10 PM

I paid more than $3.99 for the first time today
$4.39
I don't like it
most signs I saw were $4.49
I don't think crude has gone up at the same rate as gasoline in the past 4-6 weeks

it's price gouging

gas stations used to work on percentages - probably still do, I don't know

but, if they were making 10% on $3/gallon, they're making a heck of a lot more on $4.50/gallon

You need to remember that most stations are indepenently owned and the owner is not paying for his last delivery, but instead is paying for his next. Therefore when the price of oil goes up, he immediately has to raise his price in an attempt to make enough to cover this next delivery.

Also, gasoline is not is only cost. Labor has gone up drastically in the past year or so along with things like utilities, and other products and services that they provide.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #17079 on:** June 03, 2022, 08:51:33 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2022, 07:28:24 AM

It's the messaging. Markets react to signals from Government too, you know??

The proof is there, from the man himself (and not walked back):

“Here’s the situation. And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over.”

So that's actually a little interesting to me in a sort of spiraling way.

We're making the argument that business has to react to government "signals." That would imply something real and tangible.

But the quote above is not really all that real and tangible. It's something that was pulled out of the middle of a meandering answer about the economy. The only way it's a signal is if the current president is extremely on-point with his words, always meaning everything he says to the letter. I suppose one could argue that, but I've also been told, repeatedly, that he's a chowderhead being rewarded with ice cream. And I'd have to assume that a business person who reads direct meaning and signals into out-of-context quotes from a ice cream loving chowder head is a moron.

Now, what that quote was great for is divisive media fodder. We lament how the media is trying to divide us. But when the media waves around a quote that confirms our worldview, we just go along? This seems very trusting of the media, by and large.

If we want to dwell on real policies, I can get behind that. But dwelling on low-context verbal burps from a person one thinks is an invalid, these are not the things "signals" are made of.

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Topic: In other news ...

grillrat

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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GopherRock

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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bayareabadger

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