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Topic: In other news ...

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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14168 on: March 08, 2022, 04:43:08 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 08, 2022, 04:30:29 PM
Looks to me like the impact of COVID was a lot more important than the impact of POTUS...
Id agree with you if Biden had not taken the actions he had to hold down oil production

When is the last time Biden sat down with the oil companies to get their input

if he would just reverse his directives and reinstall the ones he inherited when taking office the problem would be solved
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14169 on: March 08, 2022, 04:45:17 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 08, 2022, 04:40:25 PM
Glenn Greenwald did not in any way give it the context it deserves, though...



It's presented by Greenwald that Colbert actually meant what he said, when it was just the set-up to a joke.

I would completely understand Greenwald clutching at pearls if Colbert said that in an interview, or in literally ANY context where it was supposed to be taken seriously. But he was on stage, performing.

If we are supposed to think that everything a comedian says on stage is what they well and truly believe--well then the comedians that you love the most must be some pretty foul people. Should we also think that everything Eminem--who you appeared to like back in his heydey--was saying was something that conveyed his literal and true heartfelt beliefs in all of his raps?

Or do we give just a LITTLE leeway to comedians and performers, when they're actually engaged in performance?
Yeah, maybe Glenn didn't use his words wisely. But I agree with his sentiment- Colbert is trying to make a joke about something that just isn't funny and he's an out of touch hack. I think an actual stand up comedian, Tim Dillon said it better here.


https://twitter.com/TimJDillon/status/1501247860645539852?s=20&t=-5B0wiG1_SrwYhKQe0nMhA
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14170 on: March 08, 2022, 04:46:16 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 08, 2022, 04:39:12 PM
impact of covid is valid point. it caused demand to crash.

Having said that.... the POTUS at the time was able to get Saudi Arabia and it's toy OPEC (kinda like NATO is our toy, OPEC is theirs) and Russia to agree to slash production and end an oil price war. Said POTUS was also able to get Saudi/OPEC to increase production in 2018 when he wanted price of oil to cool down. Biden has attempted this and been laughed out of the room by the Saudis. They won't even take his call.

It is beyond stupid to suggest the POTUS does not have sway over the price of oil. He does. An administration can start wars (which leads to uncertainty and price instability), restrict drilling permits or increase drilling permits, can ban oil leases and exploration for oil on federally leased lands, and then a Presidents ability- or in Biden's case I should say complete lack of ability- to play negotiator with the Saudis to get them to either ramp up or ramp down production- all of it has direct impact on price of oil.
That's fair. I'm responding to 320 who seems to blame Biden for US domestic oil production problems.

He points to a nosedive in CD's chart. The biggest nosedive appears to be in April 2020, which is adequately explained by COVID. 

There's another nosedive in February 2021, which was in fact one month after Biden took office. But then it recovered to above January numbers in March 2021, and rose from there. 

And February 2021 had its own problems: 

February 2021 weather triggers largest monthly decline in U.S. natural gas production

Looks to me like the Texas cold snap, that I would assume 320 remembers occurring last winter, probably had a bigger effect on oil production than Biden's inauguration, considering that the oil production immediately recovered a month later and went up from there. 
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14171 on: March 08, 2022, 04:46:33 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 08, 2022, 04:42:41 PM
OPEC: There's 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-opec-supply-brent-crude-price-markets-commodities-russia-ukraine-2022-3
but the us was only getting at the most 10% of that which could more then be offset by restoring production to prior levels.  and yes OPEC could do much more then they are doing instead of sitting back and counting their money
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14172 on: March 08, 2022, 04:47:14 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 08, 2022, 04:43:08 PM
Id agree with you if Biden had not taken the actions he had to hold down oil production

When is the last time Biden sat down with the oil companies to get their input

if he would just reverse his directives and reinstall the ones he inherited when taking office the problem would be solved
even if the US ramped up production massively, world market still needs Russian oil. 

Per OPEC chief: 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-opec-supply-brent-crude-price-markets-commodities-russia-ukraine-2022-3
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14173 on: March 08, 2022, 04:50:04 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 08, 2022, 04:43:08 PM
Id agree with you if Biden had not taken the actions he had to hold down oil production

When is the last time Biden sat down with the oil companies to get their input

if he would just reverse his directives and reinstall the ones he inherited when taking office the problem would be solved
Except that CD's chart shows that oil production has risen since Biden took office, and the chart further shows that the STEO (short term energy outlook), produced by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), projects it to continue rising well into 2019 levels through the remainder of this year...

...and I suspect that chart was produced prior to this Russia invasion, which will lead to a spike in oil prices, and an interest in US producers pumping even more if they can. 

Your complaints aren't backed up by the facts, 320...
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14174 on: March 08, 2022, 04:51:29 PM »
Im not suggesting that we set oil production record highs

just get back to where we were which would be another 1.4 million B/day

this would not only offset the loss from Russia but then we could export some to Europe or where ever
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14175 on: March 08, 2022, 04:53:37 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 08, 2022, 04:46:33 PM
but the us was only getting at the most 10% of that which could more then be offset by restoring production to prior levels.  and yes OPEC could do much more then they are doing instead of sitting back and counting their money
yeah, but price of oil is tied to a worldwide exchange. the demand and supply and forecasting of future supply and future demand is what dictates the price. 

OPEC has said even if they increase production and even if US increases production- the world can't just magically make up the difference of the 7 million barrels of oil per day Russia is producing. 

US/UK so far I think is the only country that has banned Russian oil. UK is phasing out over 10 months though- not immediately banning. If the big purchasers of Russian oil follow US/UK lead- Germany, Netherlands, Italy, South Korea, and Japan - that could really start affecting price worldwide very negatively. 
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14176 on: March 08, 2022, 05:04:40 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 08, 2022, 04:53:37 PM
yeah, but price of oil is tied to a worldwide exchange. the demand and supply and forecasting of future supply and future demand is what dictates the price.

OPEC has said even if they increase production and even if US increases production- the world can't just magically make up the difference of the 7 million barrels of oil per day Russia is producing.

US/UK so far I think is the only country that has banned Russian oil. UK is phasing out over 10 months though- not immediately banning. If the big purchasers of Russian oil follow US/UK lead- Germany, Netherlands, Italy, South Korea, and Japan - that could really start affecting price worldwide very negatively.
back in 2017 OPEC was producing 34.47 million b/day compared to 29.48 million B/day currently so it would appear that they could at least produce another 5 million B/day if they wanted to

add that to US 1.5 million B/day increase and your there so with the US help we could make Russia's oil unimportant
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14177 on: March 08, 2022, 05:09:32 PM »
China and Belarus are going to buy oil from Russia no matter what. Duh. UK/US combined account for 2.8% of Russian oil exports- China could easily make that up- especially if they are buying at a discount. 

Now IF Netherlands, Germany, South Korea, Poland, Italy, Finland, Japan, Slovakia, and Hungary all join US/UK - those 9 US/UK aligned countries are nearly 50% of all Russias oil exports. Can China really pick up all that slack? 

Russia's oil consumers as of 2020, UN Comtrade data
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14178 on: March 08, 2022, 05:11:16 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 08, 2022, 05:04:40 PM
back in 2017 OPEC was producing 34.47 million b/day compared to 29.48 million B/day currently so it would appear that they could at least produce another 5 million B/day if they wanted to

add that to US 1.5 million B/day increase and your there so with the US help we could make Russia's oil unimportant
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/analysts-say-alternative-supplies-wouldnt-be-able-to-fully-replace-russian-oil.html
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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14179 on: March 08, 2022, 05:19:17 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on March 08, 2022, 05:11:16 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/analysts-say-alternative-supplies-wouldnt-be-able-to-fully-replace-russian-oil.html
if you read the article it says that OPEC couldnt produce more then 2 or 3 million B/day more unless they did some internal stuff

well all Im saying is that they were doing 5 million B/day more just 5 years ago and theres no reason to think they could not do it again it they wanted to

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longhorn320

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14180 on: March 08, 2022, 05:44:19 PM »
I guess another related point Id like to make is the fact that the US holds the most untapped oil reserves of any country in the world and there just is no reason to be dependent on another country for its oil


However we go about it we need to get to an oil production level that first takes care of our needs and then if the market is there can export some to our allies


Im not saying we should not explore other forms of energy but only that the first priority should be to satisfy our current energy needs
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Mdot21

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #14181 on: March 08, 2022, 06:15:00 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on March 08, 2022, 05:44:19 PM
I guess another related point Id like to make is the fact that the US holds the most untapped oil reserves of any country in the world and there just is no reason to be dependent on another country for its oil
a) this isn't exactly true. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have the most proven oil reserves of any countries in the entire world. Proven reserves are defined as reserves that have a 90% or greater chance of being present and economically viable for extraction/production. Venezuela has a little bit more proven reserves, Saudis reserves however are easier to extract and therefore far more profitable to extract. Even if US holds "most untapped reserves" - that could largely just be theoretical and extremely cost prohibitive to tap and therefore not worth a whole lot.

b) the US isn't dependent on another country for it's oil. we produce a ton of oil. but we also use a ton of oil. US military/DoD alone is the single largest consumer of oil in the world. US military consumes more oil than a lot of entire countries.

oil is a global market and price is affected by more than just US production. US is but a player in that global marketplace. Saudis/OPEC produce like 40% of all worlds oil. That organization alone and country of Saudi Arabia alone probably have the most sway over price of oil.
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