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Topic: In other news ...

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rolltidefan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11844 on: January 29, 2022, 09:37:23 AM »
(Checks map. It's not South Florida.)

Yeah, it checks out.
are you suggesting south florida is not a shithole?

MaximumSam

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11845 on: January 29, 2022, 09:57:35 AM »
Cold as hell today. Gonna be a lot of college basketball and yelling at the kids to clean up their messes. Got some stuff to make meatballs - main flavoring will be parmesan, pancetta, anchovies, and fennel. 

utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11846 on: January 29, 2022, 10:00:49 AM »
are you suggesting south florida is not a shithole?
That's what we've been told.

Cincydawg

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11847 on: January 29, 2022, 10:05:47 AM »
25°F here with a very light cover of snow, hardly any.  Blue sky at least, hope to take a walk shortly, my ankle is finally a bit better, still very sore.

We have two new restaurants locally I want to try, one is Persian and one American, whatever that means, both in Colony Square which was "renewed" to the tune of $400 million recently, it's actually well done I think.

Saints + Council - Midtown, Atlanta, Atlanta, GA (saintsandcouncil.com)

A guy I know started this, I guess he's the GM/owner.


Honestbuckeye

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11848 on: January 29, 2022, 10:28:46 AM »
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

bayareabadger

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11849 on: January 29, 2022, 10:34:26 AM »
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CZPSrNBJ6gH/?utm_medium=share_sheet


fearless?  That you ?
Naw, that's the kid someone let Fearless babysit a couple times. 

Sharing lessons with the youths. 

rolltidefan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11850 on: January 29, 2022, 10:39:22 AM »
McDonald’s ends 2021 strong, but rising costs ding profit - Chicago Sun-Times (suntimes.com)
interesting. sales increased 13% (us only operations 7.5%) while labor costs increased only 10% (globally, i guess? or us only? doesn't specify) for the 4th qtr.

what that article doesn't tell you is that net income rose 19% for the qtr and 59% year over year. no info on labor cost increase % annually. operating income rose 12% for the qtr, 23% if you exclude some unusual and infrequent items. op income rose 41% year over year.

https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/gwscorp/assets/investors/financial-information/earnings-release/Q4%20Earnings%20Release%20-%2099.1.pdf

funny how article titles and info in the body can change how things look. like this one below. despite increase in labor and food costs, profits "soared" 59% from prior year to record $7.5b, and % increase in 4th qtr sales in us only was 13.8% from prior year - the highest increase ever. (both of those #'s slightly misleading as 4th qtr 2020 and whole year 2020 was pandemic bad).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/business/mcdonalds-earnings.html

Price increases on Big Macs, Chicken McNuggets and other food items helped McDonald’s more than offset sharp rises in food and labor costs and propelled the company’s revenues for 2021 to the highest level since 2016.
McDonald’s said in a financial report on Thursday that global revenues topped $23.2 billion last year, a 21 percent jump from 2019 and the highest level since reaching $24.6 billion in 2016. Profit soared 59 percent from a year earlier, to $7.5 billion.
In the United States, comparable McDonald’s restaurant sales in the fourth quarter grew 13.8 percent from a year earlier — the highest increase ever — from a combination of menu price increases, promotions around the McRib and the Crispy Chicken Sandwich, and the company’s digital loyalty program, McDonald’s said.

the nytime article doesn't say what the price increase was, but a couple google searches said was 6% over prior year.

https://www.shefinds.com/collections/mcdonalds-menu-items-price-increase-2021/
https://www.eatthis.com/news-mcdonalds-just-revealed-how-much-its-raising-its-prices-this-year/

so a 6% increase in prices not only offsets the 10% increased labor cost and also the 4% increase food supply cost, it does so in such a manner to increase profits 59% from prior year (25% over 2 years prior).

fwiw, while those %'s are a bit misleading due to 2020 covid, it's not just a pandemic down year comparison, either. mcd's posted profits of $6.0b and $5.9b in 2019 and 2018, and 2020 (pandemic year) was $4.7b. that's a 25% increase from 2019 and 27% over 2018. and of course 2021 had covid issues as well.

utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11851 on: January 29, 2022, 10:43:27 AM »
Yeah, your final paragraph is an important one.  I see a lot of people in my industry and others taking 2021's Year-over-Year increases without any context.  The truth is the bottom dropped out of many industries in 2020.

For my forecasting purposes, I completely ignore 2020 and use our historical demand and seasonality from around 2015-2019.

*For anything beyond 2022, I'm also ignoring 2021's record results, because I know that demand is going to level off and then drop dramatically. 

rolltidefan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11852 on: January 29, 2022, 10:44:52 AM »
also, that 10% increase in labor costs got the ave wage up to $13, with min being $11. their goal is $15 by 2024, so another 15% increase on the ave, or 36% it they meant the min.

from those other articles, that 6% price increase is expected to stay same for 2022.

rolltidefan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11853 on: January 29, 2022, 10:52:05 AM »
Yeah, your final paragraph is an important one.  I see a lot of people in my industry and others taking 2021's Year-over-Year increases without any context.  The truth is the bottom dropped out of many industries in 2020.

For my forecasting purposes, I completely ignore 2020 and use our historical demand and seasonality from around 2015-2019.

*For anything beyond 2022, I'm also ignoring 2021's record results, because I know that demand is going to level off and then drop dramatically.
no doubt. and it'll be used both ways. like that 10% increase in labor costs, was that because half their workforce quit and went on welfare for half the year? or actual increases? can't tell in financials available cause the ones out now don't have info in them and the one that will isn't out yet.

and i already showed how the sales/profits increased can be misleading.

even without pandemic stuff, those numbers for huge corps can be misleading. they had a stock sale in Japan (increase) and a major business acquisition (decrease) included in operating income. that's not usually where those go, and i'm not sure why they were there, tbh. those #'s represent only about 4% of operating income for the qtr, but changes the % change from same qtr in prior year by almost double, so it can be significant.

847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11854 on: January 29, 2022, 11:02:54 AM »
We really won't know much about any of these numbers until probably 2023 at the earliest. I just thought the article was interesting.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11855 on: January 29, 2022, 11:04:37 AM »
I won't speak to service industries, but right now in most manufacturing industries, costs are up across the board.  The labor market has become super-competitive, so labor is up.  Those are market forces, not government programs, of course.

Raw materials are up as well for numerous reasons.  One of those is because THEIR labor costs are up for the same reasons.  Additionally, as so many OEMs come back and place huge orders, the suppliers have more demand than supply.  So the price goes up again, due to natural market forces.

Limited supply of trucks, boats, and airplane cargo space, causes all of those costs to increase, but only part of that is a labor cost impact. Limited availability of dock workers in the nation's largest ports is making a huge impact as well, this IS a labor cost impact.

As an OEM, we're pushing some of those costs on to customers, but we're also eating a bunch of it.  We can only do so much in the free market and our competitors are dying to steal market share from us, we have to strike a balance.

All of that to say it's all very complicated and pointing to one factor as the primary driver is invalid.  At the same time, labor cost increases factor into the equation at every single level of the value chain, so they're additive.



847badgerfan

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11856 on: January 29, 2022, 11:09:00 AM »
Salaries in my business are through the roof and approaching the moon. There just are not enough people.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: In other news ...
« Reply #11857 on: January 29, 2022, 11:13:23 AM »
Salaries in my business are through the roof and approaching the moon. There just are not enough people.

Goes back to the question we were asking a couple of days ago (and we've been discussing since Summer 2020)-- where did all the workers go?

They didn't all find success and gainful employment in New Market jobs-- they didn't all abandon waiting tables and driving trucks and working on the docks and surveying land, to become social media influencers or remote logistics planners or bakers operating out of their home kitchens.

There's an enormous number of people that just stopped working in March 2020 and never came back.  I wish I knew how they could afford that, I wouldn't mind retiring right now myself.

 

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