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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #154 on: August 05, 2023, 11:47:41 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on August 05, 2023, 11:13:11 PM
academic folks don't live in the real world of finances and accountants
In that case, they said yes to the athletic folks. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #155 on: August 05, 2023, 11:48:39 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2023, 10:10:28 PM
Of that I'm not sure, it's been a while since I perused UT's financials.  But if Texas is servicing the debt through athletic income, the point is that it can still afford to do so.  Cal-Berkley, on the other hand, can't.  And looking at just the high level pro forma of their athletic budget, it seems crazy that they ever attempted to do so, at least on that kind of scale.


We all talked about the arms race. There’s the loser right there. 
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #156 on: August 05, 2023, 11:59:27 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 05, 2023, 11:48:39 PM
We all talked about the arms race. There’s the loser right there.
No doubt, to your point a few posts upthread, more than anyone else Cal really got stuck out in all of this.  Just terrible timing regarding their decision to improve facilities.  Ten years ago it was unfathomable that the PAC contract would become essentially worthless.

HOWEVER

It also seems somewhat less than prudent, that they decided to embark on one of the most expensive facilities upgrades for ANY FBS school, knowing how tepid their own fan support has historically been.  I mean, this is Berkley-- they're supposed to be among the smartest in the room.  This was a major misjudgment from them, when there was plenty of evidence to support a cautious approach rather than a foolhardy one.  I mean, they spent as much as Texas A&M did on their stadium renovation, and the ags had just joined the SEC and had plenty of big money donors of their own who are actually rabid about college football rather than... well... whatever Cal boosters appear to be.

Just a massive miscalculation from the eggheads in Berkley.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2023, 12:08:40 AM by utee94 »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #157 on: August 06, 2023, 12:05:00 AM »
Are these the new divisions? 

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #158 on: August 06, 2023, 02:29:05 AM »
It's west and east....so probably.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #159 on: August 06, 2023, 09:32:06 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2023, 11:59:27 PM
It also seems somewhat less than prudent, that they decided to embark on one of the most expensive facilities upgrades for ANY FBS school, knowing how tepid their own fan support has historically been. 
Well, you know costs here in CA. All that debt was probably just renovating a supply closet...
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bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #160 on: August 06, 2023, 07:56:26 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on August 05, 2023, 11:59:27 PM
It also seems somewhat less than prudent, that they decided to embark on one of the most expensive facilities upgrades for ANY FBS school, knowing how tepid their own fan support has historically been.  I mean, this is Berkley-- they're supposed to be among the smartest in the room.  This was a major misjudgment from them, when there was plenty of evidence to support a cautious approach rather than a foolhardy one.  I mean, they spent as much as Texas A&M did on their stadium renovation, and the ags had just joined the SEC and had plenty of big money donors of their own who are actually rabid about college football rather than... well... whatever Cal boosters appear to be.

Just a massive miscalculation from the eggheads in Berkley.
So I think there's a few elements here. 

-Just because you can mint high-quality lawyers, physicist and engineers, does not make you a good decision maker. They do have a good business school, but a good business student will know that college admin is not the most profitable use of the degree. 

-I think a kind of undergirding of college sports is that foolhardy financial decisions are a hallmark of successful programs. The ones that made money literally had to throw it out the window to avoid the illusion of profit. Coaches are given deals to assuage their fears of being fired, then fired to placate the bonkers money people. Facilities are built and rebuilt, nonsense is added, baseline standards rose over stupid nonsense. 

-Cal also got caught in the classic spending trap. They had success, but it started to wane. When that happens, the explanation is always the same: You don't look serious about this. And the only way to be serious is spend money. 

-The school was also sort of trapped because it hadn't participated in this before. The stadium still felt like it was from 1923. They had very little in the way of football infrastructure. There's a story about the team going out to practice, running into the band, learning the band reserved the multi-use field and just having to leave. Then you throw in a 90-year-old stadium on a massive fault line, so even if you're more conservative, it's still a boat load of money (and you're still 5-7 years behind everyone else). 

Now of course, this all comes back to the main thing. You can be irresponsible if a lot of irrational folks with money have your back.  Cal aspired because you can't get those without good product, but the reality of CFB hit them: for the most part, you are who you are.
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LetsGoPeay

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #161 on: August 06, 2023, 09:35:17 PM »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #162 on: August 07, 2023, 12:36:05 AM »
Quote from: LetsGoPeay on August 06, 2023, 09:35:17 PM
https://pac-4.com/
It felt mean spirited to laugh, but that was funny. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #163 on: August 07, 2023, 01:11:52 AM »
The only thing it's missing is an OF link.
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LetsGoPeay

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #164 on: August 07, 2023, 06:19:57 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #165 on: August 07, 2023, 08:53:27 AM »
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utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #166 on: August 07, 2023, 10:13:27 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on August 06, 2023, 07:56:26 PM
So I think there's a few elements here.

-Just because you can mint high-quality lawyers, physicist and engineers, does not make you a good decision maker. They do have a good business school, but a good business student will know that college admin is not the most profitable use of the degree.

-I think a kind of undergirding of college sports is that foolhardy financial decisions are a hallmark of successful programs. The ones that made money literally had to throw it out the window to avoid the illusion of profit. Coaches are given deals to assuage their fears of being fired, then fired to placate the bonkers money people. Facilities are built and rebuilt, nonsense is added, baseline standards rose over stupid nonsense.

-Cal also got caught in the classic spending trap. They had success, but it started to wane. When that happens, the explanation is always the same: You don't look serious about this. And the only way to be serious is spend money.

-The school was also sort of trapped because it hadn't participated in this before. The stadium still felt like it was from 1923. They had very little in the way of football infrastructure. There's a story about the team going out to practice, running into the band, learning the band reserved the multi-use field and just having to leave. Then you throw in a 90-year-old stadium on a massive fault line, so even if you're more conservative, it's still a boat load of money (and you're still 5-7 years behind everyone else).

Now of course, this all comes back to the main thing. You can be irresponsible if a lot of irrational folks with money have your back.  Cal aspired because you can't get those without good product, but the reality of CFB hit them: for the most part, you are who you are.

So all that to pretty much restate what I said. :)

Berkley isn't a major athletic power, they haven't been for many decades, their alumni don't care about athletics, and embarking on the most expensive college athletics facilities renovation in the entire country, was folly.

They are, who they are.

There are no surprises here, except I suppose, to the Cal-Berkley administrators. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #167 on: August 07, 2023, 10:35:54 AM »
Way upthread @Mdot21 and @bayareabadger directed us to a link that displayed a rank order of average viewers per game from 2015-2019. My school, Ohio State, was #1 followed by Bama then Michigan. Also note that Ohio State averaged just over 1M more viewers per game than Michigan. 

It would be easy (and fun) for me to simply say "tOSU is #1, rah rah, we rule, you suck." Unfortunately, I think that misses an important point. Viewership is going to be swayed by how good a team is, particularly whether or not that team is in the NC conversation. To wit, Ohio State:
2015:

  • Defending National Champions, preseason #1.
  • Maintained #1 until November 8 when they dropped to #2, passed by Clemson. 
  • Lost to MSU on 11/21 and dropped to #8 in the 11/22 poll. Even at #8, however, the Buckeyes were still very much in the NC race because MSU already had a league loss so had they lost to PSU, tOSU would have gone to Indy to face Iowa with a CFP berth likely on the line.
  • Climbed to #6, dropped to #7, beat #8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl and finished #4.
2016:
  • Defending Fiesta Bowl Champions and #4 in prior final poll, preseason #6.
  • Climbed to #4 without playing a game (#3 OU and #5 LSU lost early).
  • Climbed to #2 before losing to PSU on 10/22.
  • Climbed back to #2 a few weeks later when #2 Michigan (Iowa), #3 Clemson (Pitt), and #4 Washington (USC) all lost.
  • Remained #2 into the CFP.
  • Finished #6 after getting blanked in CFP.
2017:
  • #6 in prior final poll, started #2.
  • Dropped to #8 and eventually #11 after an early loss to Oklahoma. 
  • Climbed steadily to as high as #3.
  • Lost badly to Iowa on 11/4 and dropped to #11. They were, however, still realistically in the NC conversation as evidenced by the end-of-year moves when there was some controversy over 11-1 non-Champion Bama getting the final CFP slot over 11-2 B1G Champion tOSU. 
  • Settled at #5, beat #8 USC in the Cotton Bowl and finished #5.
2018:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending Cotton Bowl Champions and #5 in prior final poll. 
  • Climbed to #2.
  • Lost badly at Purdue and dropped to #11.
  • Climbed to #5 and could have made CFP with a bit of help here or there.
  • Beat #9 Washington in the RoseBowl and finished #3.
2019:
  • #5 in preseason poll as Defending RoseBowl Champions and #3 in prior final poll. 
  • Went 12-0 in regular season and won B1GCG to enter CFP as #2.
  • Lost CFP semi-final and finished #3.

The Buckeyes were realistically in the NC race for every game from 2015-2019 except:
  • A #7/8 Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame 
  • A #5/8 Cotton Bowl against USC
  • A #5/9 RoseBowl against Washington 


Compare Michigan:
2015:
  • No votes in prior final poll (finished 5-7), received votes in preseason poll.
  • Lost their opener to Utah.
  • Climbed to #12 before losing to MSU ON 10/17 and were effectively out of the NC picture from then on. 
  • Lost badly to tOSU, beat #19 Florida in the Citrus Bowl and finished #12
2016:
  • Preseason #7, climbed to #2.
  • Lost to Iowa on 11/12 but only dropped to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME as #3 and lost to #2 tOSU thus missing the B1GCG and CFP.
  • Lost as #6 to #10 FSU in the Orange Bowl and finished #10.
2017:
  • Preseason #11.
  • Climbed to #7.
  • Dropped to #17 after losing to MSU on 10/7.
  • Dropped another two spots after needing OT to beat Indiana on 10/14.
  • Dropped out of the poll and NC picture completely after getting blown out by PSU on 10/21.
  • Climbed to #19 before losing to Wisconsin on 11/18.
  • Lost to tOSU then lost Outback Bowl to USCe and finished unranked. 
2018:
  • Preseason #14.
  • Lost opener to Notre Dame and dropped to #21.
  • Won 10 straight and climbed to #4.
  • Entered THE GAME at #4 and lost badly to #10 tOSU to fall to #8.
  • Lost badly to #10 Florida in the Peach Bowl and finished #14.
2019:
  • Preseason #7.
  • Dropped to #10 after needing OT to beat Army.
  • Lost badly to Wisconsin on 9/21 and dropped to #20.
  • Climbed to #16 then lost to PSU on 10/19 and dropped to #19. At this point, with two B1G losses, they were effectively out of the NC picture. 
  • Climbed to #10 before losing badly to tOSU on 11/30 and dropping to #17.
  • Lost Citrus Bowl to #9 Bama badly and finished #18.


My point here isn't to recount tOSU's successes and Michigan's struggles from 2015-2019 (that was fun though). 

My point is actually more complimentary to what we tOSU fans call TSUN, The School Up North. They had 1M less viewers per game than tOSU from 2015-2019 but Ohio State was a NC Contender for nearly that entire time while Michigan was some of the time but they also spent some time unranked and spent large portions of the 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons completely out of the NC picture. 
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