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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #70 on: August 03, 2023, 03:56:14 PM »
Could making the idea public that Oregon is on the table be a veiled threat to Stanford? I.e. "We really want you and Washington, but we'd take Oregon and Washington, and there are only so many possible seats on this bus. So if you don't want to be left out in the cold, the clock is ticking to say yes..."
honestly think it could be a smokescreen. B1G made huge splash move by adding USC/UCLA. I think they are going to swing for the fences. That's ND, that's Miami/FSU. That is NOT motherfkn Oregon or Washington....

bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #71 on: August 03, 2023, 04:10:44 PM »
Could making the idea public that Oregon is on the table be a veiled threat to Stanford? I.e. "We really want you and Washington, but we'd take Oregon and Washington, and there are only so many possible seats on this bus. So if you don't want to be left out in the cold, the clock is ticking to say yes..."
No one should want Stanford.

utee94

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #72 on: August 03, 2023, 04:16:12 PM »
No one should want Stanford.

I've heard folks float the idea of bringing Stanford in as an enticement to Notre Dame.  I have no idea whether or not that's something that might really draw Notre Dame, but internet rumors are gonna rumor. :)

Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #73 on: August 03, 2023, 04:18:23 PM »
I heard a rumor that most rumors are made up silliness ... I don't know if that is true.

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #74 on: August 03, 2023, 04:21:38 PM »
sports is literally the only thing people watch on live tv anymore. out of the top 100 most watched programs on live tv last year, 87 of them were football games. 87%. 82 NFL games and 5 college games. 6 of the top 10 most watched live tv programs- were- you guessed it football games.

football tv ratings and football tv ratings alone will drive this crap. research dollars mean nothing. basketball means nothing- for fk sake Duke- yes Duke- makes more money from football than they do basketball. 

this article from a year ago...some of the info is a few years old, but my guess is the #'s for today would be pretty similar. 

these are the top 25 most viewed college football programs (weekly average viewers) on tv from 2015-2019

1) Ohio State (5.19M)

2) Alabama (5.09M)
3) Michigan (4.18M)
4) Notre Dame (3.61M)
5) LSU (3.22M)
6) Auburn (3.12M)
7) Georgia (2.91M)
8) Oklahoma (2.90M)
9) Clemson (2.67M)
10) Penn State (2.55M)
11) Florida (2.46M)
12) Wisconsin (2.27M)
13) Texas (2.269M)
14) Florida State (2.23M)
15) Michigan State (2.20M)
16) Southern Cal (1.98M)
17) Texas A&M (1.851M)
18) Tennessee (1.849M)
19) Oklahoma State (1.64M)
20) Mississippi (1.61M)
21) Iowa (1.57M)
22) Nebraska (1.51M)
23) Miami (1.503M)
24) TCU (1.495M)
25) Stanford (1.43M)




FSU & Miami both have remained top 25 in this time period, despite mostly sucking from 2015-2019 and really both sucking since about 2004- with exception of FSU having a couple great years with Jameis Winston. Either of them ever get really good again, their tv ratings would easily surge. Stanford in the top 25 is a bit of a surprise. Clemson was elite as it gets during this run- yet still barely cracked the top 10. Weird....don't see Oregon or Washington lol.

bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #75 on: August 03, 2023, 04:22:36 PM »
fans in the stadiums don't matter. tv market size & recruiting should be the only concerns, period.

Miami is literally always just one good coach away from being an elite football program. why? they are sitting on the most fertile recruiting grounds in the entire fkn country.

Miami should be #1 on the B1G's wishlist with a bullet. And it's not even remotely close.
In the era of cord cutting and the end of the cable bundle, TV markets will lose their value. And I’m not talking about fans filling stadiums, I’m talking about fans who consume and put money into the product. That has value.

Miami is a set of insane rich fans, no one else giving a shit and stories about the “state of Miami,” from back before the internet. They might be a good add, but they’re not as good an add as FSU because they are dysfunctional and lack a base of actual humans who care how they do. Shit, they’re in a dogshit division and have made one conference title game. Pitt and Wake each have twice as many. And the big ten’s gotta slurp slurp slurp because man that 2001 team was something. It’s a rickety program that steps on its own dick.

As for recruiting, you can recruit Miami from afar just fine. The SEC does pretty well. UNC isn’t grabbing good South Beach talent because it’s goes there twice a year. Go pay up like Bama has been for a long time.

(That’s not to say they wouldn’t have value, but not this raging hard on value I’m seeing here)

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #76 on: August 03, 2023, 04:23:51 PM »
No one should want Stanford.
they have better weekly average tv ratings than either Oregon or Washington, and they are in a much larger more important metro/tv market than either Washington or Oregon. Stanford is a MUCH more attractive option than those other two shitholes, if we're talking strictly the dead Pac scraps here. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #77 on: August 03, 2023, 04:27:52 PM »
they have better weekly average tv ratings than either Oregon or Washington, and they are in a much larger more important metro/tv market than either Washington or Oregon. Stanford is a MUCH more attractive option than those other two shitholes, if we're talking strictly the dead Pac scraps here.
They’re basically the same. Oregon is one spot back. Washington three. 

Here’s a question, you watch more Hurricanes football than Michigan football, right? And probably watch some FIU football too?

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #78 on: August 03, 2023, 04:30:58 PM »
In the era of cord cutting and the end of the cable bundle, TV markets will lose their value. And I’m not talking about fans filling stadiums, I’m talking about fans who consume and put money into the product. That has value.

Miami is a set of insane rich fans, no one else giving a shit and stories about the “state of Miami,” from back before the internet. They might be a good add, but they’re not as good an add as FSU because they are dysfunctional and lack a base of actual humans who care how they do. Shit, they’re in a dogshit division and have made one conference title game. Pitt and Wake each have twice as many. And the big ten’s gotta slurp slurp slurp because man that 2001 team was something. It’s a rickety program that steps on its own dick.

As for recruiting, you can recruit Miami from afar just fine. The SEC does pretty well. UNC isn’t grabbing good South Beach talent because it’s goes there twice a year. Go pay up like Bama has been for a long time.

(That’s not to say they wouldn’t have value, but not this raging hard on value I’m seeing here)
wrong. they aren't losing their value- they have already lost their value for everything except....live sports- but more specifically football. Football is literally the only thing people watch live in the US anymore. that makes it a MORE valuable commodity, not less. 87% of the top 100 most watched live programs in US last year? Football games. why do you think the money for the B1G and SEC in their new tv rights deals have been record breaking? Bc those two entities control the media rights to football programs that people watch the living fkng shit out of. 

Miami despite it's lackluster success and sucking ass for the last 20 years still brings in top 25 weekly average ratings. that makes them one of the 25 most valuable assets in college football and a prime target for expansion. Unlike Washington or Oregon- couple a dogshit options they are.

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #79 on: August 03, 2023, 04:46:12 PM »
They’re basically the same. Oregon is one spot back. Washington three.

Here’s a question, you watch more Hurricanes football than Michigan football, right? And probably watch some FIU football too?
No, they're not basically the same. They are both behind Stanford. Stanford. A small private research school that only the elite and fking nerdiest of nerds get into, that has sucked ass at football for fking ever with the exception of an 8 year run started by Jeem and continued on for 5-6 years by Shaw before he inevitably crashed and burned. They legit have no business whatsoever averaging higher weekly tv ratings than public state schools that most anyone can get into like Oregon or Washington- that both have better track records of winning in football than Stanford. That tells me one thing; that Washington and Oregon are dogshit options.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think TV/B1G execs aren't salivating at FSU-Ohio State/Mich/PSU/USC or Miami-Ohio St/Mich/PSU/USC matchups. Both of those type of series would bring in FAR more eye balls than Washington or Oregon vs Ohio State/Mich/PSU/USC. And that is what will drive this next round of tv expansion- potential for higher ratings.

bayareabadger

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #80 on: August 03, 2023, 05:36:27 PM »
wrong. they aren't losing their value- they have already lost their value for everything except....live sports- but more specifically football. Football is literally the only thing people watch live in the US anymore. that makes it a MORE valuable commodity, not less. 87% of the top 100 most watched live programs in US last year? Football games. why do you think the money for the B1G and SEC in their new tv rights deals have been record breaking? Bc those two entities control the media rights to football programs that people watch the living fkng shit out of.

Miami despite it's lackluster success and sucking ass for the last 20 years still brings in top 25 weekly average ratings. that makes them one of the 25 most valuable assets in college football and a prime target for expansion. Unlike Washington or Oregon- couple a dogshit options they are.
That first part is true. But I didn't say it was less valuable. I said "TV markets" are less valuable. And the reason for that is because this isn't 2010 when you were limited by your cable setup. It's 2023. If you want to watch CFB, you an do it from anywhere. You're in Miami, more than a thousand miles from the Big Ten. And you can watch every Michigan game you want. Even the ones on the "regional" network. The value is that people will pay for this product, so it helps to bring in more people who will pay for it. 

And Miami is not all that higher in terms of people who seek out and pay for it. They're a lovely brand for the casual viewer. And people might pay if they play like it's 1991. But for the moment, they don't 

And even more beautifully, those TV numbers you listed tell us that. Miami is No. 23. Stanford 25 (honestly WTF), Oregon 26 and Washington 28. Now you might babble on about how those few spots are meaningful, but in reality, they point out what fools gold Miami is. See, that ranking is average ratings. And we can go back to the basics and remember that ratings of West Coast games have a certain penalty because they kick off at 10:45. So Miami, playing when the whole country is awake is slightly edging out teams that play 75% of their games when well over half the country is in bed. That would be bad. 

I'm not here arguing if it comes down to one team, Oregon should be in over Miami. On that front, I'd maybe lean Miami. Maybe. But if Miami is the crown jewel, best close up shop. Ain't much selection in the market today. Go steal the Gators or something. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #81 on: August 03, 2023, 05:43:46 PM »
I personally would rather have FSU and Clemson than Miami in "my" conference.  But we don't care none about dem akademicals.

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #82 on: August 03, 2023, 06:29:27 PM »
I personally would rather have FSU and Clemson than Miami in "my" conference.  But we don't care none about dem akademicals.
my guess here is Florida would do everything in it's power to block FSU from ever joining the SEC.

oh...and you are correct akademicals and research $$$ mean nothing in the expansion talks. it's all about tv dollars. 

ND is the crown jewel out there for any conference because they bring the largest tv audience. But man do I just really hate them. 

Mdot21

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #83 on: August 03, 2023, 06:47:18 PM »
Greg McElroy nails it here. West coast = useless, worthless to the B1G. Southeast = where the $$$$$ at. 



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzpbcbDuyGU

 

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