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Topic: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
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utee94 · « **Reply #14 on:** January 13, 2022, 12:49:55 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on January 13, 2022, 12:44:13 PM

Yep.

But maybe we should just assign a narrative that Georgia just "wanted it more" or perhaps that Alabama has CFP fatigue...

Prior to the game, FPI predicted a 58.4% Georgia win percentage in this game. Which means that if you play the game 1000 times, we'd predict that Georgia wins 584 and Alabama wins 416. Some of those would be tight games. Some of those would be blowouts either way. All of which would be within the statistical likelihood of probable outcomes. If they'd been blowouts, you'd be DAMN sure we'd be writing narratives about it.

In this game, Alabama outgained Georgia by 35 yards. Alabama converted 3rd downs at 45% to Georgia's 33%. Alabama ran 85 offensive plays to Georgia's 56. Alabama held the ball for 31 and a half minutes.

Alabama lost because they were -1 in the TO battle and they were less able to convert scores into touchdowns rather than field goals.

Statistically, the two teams weren't that far from even. Yet it was a 15-point victory for the Dawgs. And a few Georgia turnovers/mistakes/etc could have swung the margin to a 15-point Bama win quite easily...

This is why other sports play a 7-game series in the playoffs. Football is IMHO somewhat more deterministic (i.e. stronger team winning) than other sports, but not so much that a single game's outcome actually tells you all that much. But we have to talk about it like it means everything.

Well... we don't HAVE to. Some folks CHOOSE to.

You can count me out of all that bulljive.

Still, a win is a win, and Georgia fans can rightfully celebrate winning the game, and the national championship, under our current system's rules.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #15 on:** January 13, 2022, 12:54:41 PM »

UGA ended with wins over

#21 Arky 37-0
#18 Kentucky 30-14
#14 Clemson 10-3 could have gone the other way
#3 Michigan 34-11
#2 Alabama (plus a loss) 33-18 could have gone the other way

Not bad. In some alternate universe, they lost to Clemson and didn't make the playoff and would have played in the Sugar Bowl.

They clearly had a very good team, but I reflect on how other very good teams simply don't make it, like Ohio State in 1998.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #16 on:** January 13, 2022, 01:18:23 PM »

Georgia is the champion. They deserve congratulations. They won it on the field. That's in the history books and will be henceforth.

Will Kirby win another one at Georgia? Maybe. I don't know.
Is this the start of a new CFB dynasty? Maybe. I don't know.
Will Georgia go to the CFB seven times in the next decade, making the final 5 times, and come up 0-5 by a combined score of 12 points? Maybe. I don't know.

We know that Georgia is recruiting well. We've seen that they appear to be well coached. We know demographically and with the way the changes of the sport are headed, and relative conference [lack of] parity, I'd probably throw down money if given better than even odds that Georgia will win at least one more in the next decade. I'd call it better than 50/50.

But... Crap. That's not at all a controversial "hot take" and that entire sentiment wouldn't take more than 30 seconds or so of airtime.

I guess I'll never be a talking head.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #17 on:** January 13, 2022, 04:26:38 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on January 13, 2022, 12:49:26 PM

I'm a believer that contested games USUALLY come down to turnovers and other unpredictable flukes, but the Talking Heads have to try and analyze and predict. I bet if we surveyed games with no more than a 4 point spread, the team winning the TO battle wins 75-80% of them.

Then there are the other fluke unpredictable plays that happen. For a team that is a 15 point favorite, it rarely matters. It just makes a closer win.

This made me think about 1970 ND.
I just made it for Whoa Nellie.
Joe Theismann had 526 yards passing in their only loss (to USC). The Irish were -8 in turnovers and only lost by 10 points.
Yeah, that'll do it, lol.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #18 on:** January 13, 2022, 06:01:03 PM »

I think this discussion renders what Bama has done of late rather impressive (not that it wasn't already). To win an NC, you need to recruit consistently at a very high level and take several shots figuring maybe one in three gets home. Clemson as well.

LSU had a miracle one off, so far. Ohio State of course always is lurking.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #19 on:** January 13, 2022, 06:54:19 PM »

This was a "down" Alabama. 1st Rd QB gone, 1st Rd RB gone, Heisman-winning WR gone, OL issues, run D issues early, etc......but look at what they still did.

Gigem · « **Reply #20 on:** January 13, 2022, 07:03:27 PM »

It’s fairly straightforward for me. Georgia is recruiting at an elite level for many, many years. They have great coaches, facilities, and fan support. They’re in the best conference. They will continue to be a contender for years to come.

FearlessF · « **Reply #21 on:** January 13, 2022, 10:32:01 PM »

Osborne, after winning the big one, stated that it takes a little luck

He never mentioned that when he lost the big one, but he mentioned it all 3 times he was lucky enough to get the win

as on the golf course, better to be lucky than good

but, you have to be very good to get into the 4-team playoff and pretty good to just to be able to grab enough luck to win

Cincydawg · « **Reply #22 on:** January 14, 2022, 03:15:18 AM »

Yup, I figure usually at least 3 of the teams in the CFP are very very good, and capable of beating you half the time, the other one would need some breaks, maybe could beat you 25% of the time, so the odds are against you no matter how good you are unless you are unusually great.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #23 on:** January 14, 2022, 03:30:54 AM »

A lot of the "luck" element is simply when you have your good or great year.

Ohio State was incredible in 2019 but Clemson was just as good and LSU was better. That team might have won it all in a different year.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #24 on:** January 14, 2022, 03:33:43 AM »

Very true, it helps obviously to have your "elite year" when everyone else is a bit down. Why are we awake?

bayareabadger · « **Reply #25 on:** January 14, 2022, 09:00:59 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on January 14, 2022, 03:30:54 AM

A lot of the "luck" element is simply when you have your good or great year.

Ohio State was incredible in 2019 but Clemson was just as good and LSU was better. That team might have won it all in a different year.

(Whispers quietly ... I think OSU could've taken LSU. It would've had to be really feeling it, but Clemson was in that game at points, despite Lawrence being pretty out of sync. Granted, it would've been a shootout for the ages)

FearlessF · « **Reply #26 on:** January 14, 2022, 10:01:00 AM »

even when the stars align and you have your elite season at the opportune time

just a bit of bad luck in one playoff game can derail the train

the better team doesn't always win

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #27 on:** January 14, 2022, 10:01:45 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on January 14, 2022, 09:00:59 AM

(Whispers quietly ... I think OSU could've taken LSU. It would've had to be really feeling it, but Clemson was in that game at points, despite Lawrence being pretty out of sync. Granted, it would've been a shootout for the ages)

According to the ranking that you posted in another thread, Ohio State that year was not only better than Clemson but also better than LSU and one of the very best CFP teams of the eight-year CFP era and I *THINK* those rankings are end-of-year so AFTER tOSU lost to Clemson and LSU beat them.

That said, I think one thing that those rankings do NOT reflect is the fact that some teams (usually younger ones) improve more over the course of a season than others. If LSU and tOSU played in early 2019, I'd take Ohio State and be willing to give up some points. LSU really came on late so in January . . . Well, I wouldn't feel like tOSU had no chance but I also wouldn't be very confident.

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Topic: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

utee94

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

Cincydawg

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

Cincydawg

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

Gigem

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

FearlessF

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

Cincydawg

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

medinabuckeye1

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

Cincydawg

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

bayareabadger

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

FearlessF

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

medinabuckeye1

Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years