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Topic: First CFP Rankings

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medinabuckeye1

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First CFP Rankings
« on: November 25, 2020, 04:39:43 PM »

  • 7-0 Bama vs #22 Auburn
  • 8-0 Notre Dame @ #19 UNC
  • 7-1 Clemson vs Pitt
  • 4-0 Ohio State @ Ill
  • 5-1 aTm vs LSU
  • 6-1 Florida vs Kentucky
  • 8-0 Cincy off due to COVID
  • 5-0 NU @ MSU
  • 5-2 UGA @ USCe
  • 7-1 Miami, FL off
  • 6-2 Oklahoma @ WVU
  • 4-1 Indiana vs UMD
  • 6-2 ISU @ #17 Texas
  • 9-0 BYU off
  • 3-0 Oregon @ OrSU
  • 2-1 UW off due to Covid
  • 5-2 Texas vs #13 ISU
  • 3-0 USC vs Colorado
  • 6-2 UNC vs #2 ND
  • 8-0 Coastal Carolina @ TxSt
  • 7-0 Marshall off
  • 5-2 Auburn @ #1 Bama
  • 5-2 OkSU vs TxTech
  • 3-2 Iowa vs UNL
  • 5-1 Tulsa off due to COVID


Thoughts:
Clemson over Ohio State might bother me if I thought it mattered but it really doesn't.  #2 ND and #3 Clemson cannot both win out.  At least one must lose.  Thus, if Ohio State wins out they are EXTREMEMLY unlikely to finish lower than #3.  

Pairs/groups of teams that cannot all win out:
  • #1 Bama and #6 Florida
  • #1 Bama and #22 Auburn
  • #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson
  • #4 tOSU and #8 NU
  • #11 OU and #13 ISU and #17 Tx and #23 OkSU

Teams that probably control their own destiny to the CFP
  • #1 Bama, no doubt.  
  • #2 Notre Dame, if they win out including beating Clemson again in the ACCCG, they are absolutely in.  
  • #3 Clemson, if they win out that would avenge their earlier loss to ND and they would be 100% in.  
  • #4 Ohio State, if they win out they'd be an undefeated P5 Champion.  
  • #6 Florida  A 1-loss SEC Champion is absolutely in.  
  • #8 Northwestern, if they win out they'd be an undefeated P5 Champion likely with a win over tOSU.  
  • #15 Oregon, if they win out they'd be an undefeated P5 Champion and 100% in.  
  • #18 USC, if they win out they'd be an undefeated P5 Champion and 100% in.  

That is it, everybody else needs help.  Other highly ranked teams and what they probably need:
  • #5 aTm:  Being #5 is great but they can't make it to the SECCG without a miracle and without a Championship they would be passed by any undefeated P5 Champion and possibly by 1-loss P5 Champions as well.  Their best shot, I think, would be if Bama goes undefeated thus making Bama #1 and making aTm's blowout loss to the Tide more forgivable and also eliminating Florida from the running.  Even then, it would help their cause if ND beats Clemson again or if the B1G and PAC fail to produce an undefeated Champion.  
  • #7 Cincy:  I think they need absolute chaos.  They are ahead of Northwestern, USC, and Oregon for now but they will not finish ahead of any undefeated P5 team and they probably will not finish ahead of any 1-loss P5 Champion or other team (like aTm).  
  • #9 UGA:  Almost zero chance.  I think they would need Florida to disintegrate and then they'd need a SECCG win over Bama and that still might not be enough because Bama and/or aTm could still finish with a better record.  
  • #10 Miami:  The only way I see for them to get in is if they get into the ACCCG (requires a Clemson loss or two ND losses) and then win the ACC and finish as a 1-loss ACC Champion.  
  • #11 OU, #13 ISU, #17 TX, and #23 OkSU:  The Champion of the B12 will have at least two losses.  The only way that gets in is chaos but it could happen.  
  • #12 Indiana:  Much like UGA in the SEC, almost zero chance.  They need tOSU to lose twice or miss to games, then they need a B1GCG win and some other help in other leagues.  
I think that is every relevant team.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2020, 04:43:04 PM »
One more thought:

BYU was stupid for not taking a game with Washington no matter the stipulations.  These rankings make clear that they aren't getting anywhere near the CFP with that cupcake schedule so they NEEDED a decent opponent.  

FearlessF

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2020, 04:45:15 PM »
BYU would change their mind after this ranking came out
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Cincydawg

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2020, 04:47:06 PM »
Good analysis.  I think you can drop UGA from any future analysis unless total weirdness happens.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2020, 04:48:36 PM »
Good analysis.  I think you can drop UGA from any future analysis unless total weirdness happens.
Assuming Florida beats Kentucky this weekend, that will be one step closer to mathematically eliminating UGA from SECCG contention and once that happens their chances at a CFP berth become nil.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2020, 04:49:33 PM »
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?

MrNubbz

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2020, 04:50:30 PM »
How does T A&M get a no 5 ranking?They got waterboarded by Bama 52-24 and beat an 0-7 Vanderbilt 17-12.They beat number 6 Florida by 3 but that is all pending.They shouldn't be ahead of Northwestern or Indiana.I hope FLA wins out and beats Bama in the CCG
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FearlessF

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2020, 04:53:17 PM »
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?
nothing, a loss to Clemson should be enuff

especially a bad loss
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2020, 05:00:02 PM »
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?
nothing, a loss to Clemson should be enuff

especially a bad loss
I agree with @FearlessF pending chaos.  A 1-loss non-Champion Notre Dame would likely be behind any undefeated or 1-loss P5 Champion and probably also behind a 1-loss non-Champion aTm and numerous other potential 1-loss non-Champions.  They might not even be ahead of a 2-loss P5 Champion such as from the B12 provided that the loss was bad.  

MrNubbz

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2020, 05:06:10 PM »
A&M deserves nothing,if they run the table they still need help,not seeing that at all.IMO it will be pointed out the 5pt win vs an 0-7 team.Hell they should be flattered they are considered in the top 10 at all
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2020, 05:11:20 PM »
I don't know what I'd prefer more...

Watching Notre Dame get knocked out of the CFP...

...or watching them end up in the #4 spot and get curb-stomped by Bama in the semifinals.

MrNubbz

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2020, 05:13:10 PM »
Haven't followed ND but their O-Line is stout
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Cincydawg

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2020, 05:28:46 PM »
How does T A&M get a no 5 ranking?They got waterboarded by Bama 52-24 and beat an 0-7 Vanderbilt 17-12.They beat number 6 Florida by 3 but that is all pending.They shouldn't be ahead of Northwestern or Indiana.I hope FLA wins out and beats Bama in the CCG
I think NW and UI are held back because they are NW and UI.

MrNubbz

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Re: First CFP Rankings
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2020, 05:34:27 PM »
But according to their(Committee) charter they are open minded and don't cater to the dogmas of the past.IU lost by one score to the no 4 team.NU beat previously unbeaten UW.Until they lose WTH.I'd take either Hoosiers/Cats vs the Aggies
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