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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 04:39:43 PM

Title: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 04:39:43 PM



Thoughts:
Clemson over Ohio State might bother me if I thought it mattered but it really doesn't.  #2 ND and #3 Clemson cannot both win out.  At least one must lose.  Thus, if Ohio State wins out they are EXTREMEMLY unlikely to finish lower than #3.  

Pairs/groups of teams that cannot all win out:

Teams that probably control their own destiny to the CFP

That is it, everybody else needs help.  Other highly ranked teams and what they probably need:
I think that is every relevant team.  

Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 04:43:04 PM
One more thought:

BYU was stupid for not taking a game with Washington no matter the stipulations.  These rankings make clear that they aren't getting anywhere near the CFP with that cupcake schedule so they NEEDED a decent opponent.  
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 04:45:15 PM
BYU would change their mind after this ranking came out
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 04:47:06 PM
Good analysis.  I think you can drop UGA from any future analysis unless total weirdness happens.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 04:48:36 PM
Good analysis.  I think you can drop UGA from any future analysis unless total weirdness happens.
Assuming Florida beats Kentucky this weekend, that will be one step closer to mathematically eliminating UGA from SECCG contention and once that happens their chances at a CFP berth become nil.  
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2020, 04:49:33 PM
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 04:50:30 PM
How does T A&M get a no 5 ranking?They got waterboarded by Bama 52-24 and beat an 0-7 Vanderbilt 17-12.They beat number 6 Florida by 3 but that is all pending.They shouldn't be ahead of Northwestern or Indiana.I hope FLA wins out and beats Bama in the CCG
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2020, 04:53:17 PM
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?
nothing, a loss to Clemson should be enuff

especially a bad loss
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 05:00:02 PM
If ND wins out until the CCG and then loses badly to a full strength Clemson, what else has to happen behind them to knock them out of the top 4?
nothing, a loss to Clemson should be enuff

especially a bad loss
I agree with @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) pending chaos.  A 1-loss non-Champion Notre Dame would likely be behind any undefeated or 1-loss P5 Champion and probably also behind a 1-loss non-Champion aTm and numerous other potential 1-loss non-Champions.  They might not even be ahead of a 2-loss P5 Champion such as from the B12 provided that the loss was bad.  
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 05:06:10 PM
A&M deserves nothing,if they run the table they still need help,not seeing that at all.IMO it will be pointed out the 5pt win vs an 0-7 team.Hell they should be flattered they are considered in the top 10 at all
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on November 25, 2020, 05:11:20 PM
I don't know what I'd prefer more...

Watching Notre Dame get knocked out of the CFP...

...or watching them end up in the #4 spot and get curb-stomped by Bama in the semifinals.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 05:13:10 PM
Haven't followed ND but their O-Line is stout
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 05:28:46 PM
How does T A&M get a no 5 ranking?They got waterboarded by Bama 52-24 and beat an 0-7 Vanderbilt 17-12.They beat number 6 Florida by 3 but that is all pending.They shouldn't be ahead of Northwestern or Indiana.I hope FLA wins out and beats Bama in the CCG
I think NW and UI are held back because they are NW and UI.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 05:34:27 PM
But according to their(Committee) charter they are open minded and don't cater to the dogmas of the past.IU lost by one score to the no 4 team.NU beat previously unbeaten UW.Until they lose WTH.I'd take either Hoosiers/Cats vs the Aggies
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2020, 05:59:59 PM
Yup.  And we all believe them, right?
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: CWSooner on November 25, 2020, 06:06:00 PM

. . . Pairs/groups of teams that cannot all win out:

  • #1 Bama and #6 Florida
  • #1 Bama and #22 Auburn
  • #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson
  • #4 tOSU and #8 NU
  • #11 OU and #13 ISU and #17 Tx and #23 OkSU . . .
OU and Iowa State have already played each other, as have Texas and FoSu.
Not that any of them has more than a ghost of a prayer to be in the running for the CFP.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: CWSooner on November 25, 2020, 06:07:34 PM
How does T A&M get a no 5 ranking?They got waterboarded by Bama 52-24 and beat an 0-7 Vanderbilt 17-12.They beat number 6 Florida by 3 but that is all pending.They shouldn't be ahead of Northwestern or Indiana.I hope FLA wins out and beats Bama in the CCG
Three words.  S. E. C.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 06:27:53 PM
Van-der-bilt,A&M won't finish in the top 10
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 25, 2020, 06:39:44 PM
One more thought:

BYU was stupid for not taking a game with Washington no matter the stipulations.  These rankings make clear that they aren't getting anywhere near the CFP with that cupcake schedule so they NEEDED a decent opponent. 

I agree, but it turns out that their concerns actually came to fruition, as their game would have been canceled this morning when Utah became available, as required by the Pac 12.

Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2020, 08:12:16 PM
A&M vs NU vs IU

A&M beat current #6 Florida
Northwestern's best win is vs current #18 Wisconsin
Indiana's best win is their loss to current #3 Ohio State.  Their 4 actual wins are vs 3 dumpster fires and Rutgers.


If you're going to cite worst win, why would you ignore best win?  It's as if you're not interested in both sides of the story.
.
Honestly, THIS is an example of the echo chamber here.  It's not about left vs right, it's about lazily believing something and then every one else chiming in with a "mm hmm" or "damn straight."  
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: utee94 on November 25, 2020, 09:14:12 PM
The ags are good this year.  Their biggest need was o-line, and the improvement there, is making Mond look significantly better.  Crazy how that works.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: ELA on November 25, 2020, 09:25:27 PM
Who cares?  This is just a bunch of random games to entertain us.  Alabama, Clemson and OSU are the three beat teams, as always.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 25, 2020, 10:20:17 PM
.
Honestly, THIS is an example of the echo chamber here.  It's not about left vs right, it's about lazily believing something and then every one else chiming in with a "mm hmm" or "damn straight." 
Going down to the wire with the 0-7 commodores just confims that thought.Getting blasted by Bama.Indy lost by 7 to no 4.Another example of your head in the chamber pot
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 10:27:56 PM
I agree, but it turns out that their concerns actually came to fruition, as their game would have been canceled this morning when Utah became available, as required by the Pac 12.
It would have been a much better look for them to at least try to play an opponent with a pulse even if it didn't work out.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 25, 2020, 10:32:19 PM
OU and Iowa State have already played each other, as have Texas and FoSu.
Not that any of them has more than a ghost of a prayer to be in the running for the CFP.
Yes, but if OU and ISU both win out, wouldn't that mean they would meet in the B12CG? ISU would be in with the best record in the B12. Your Sooners would be no worse than tied for second with OkSU and they'd win that tie based on H2H, no?
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 26, 2020, 12:37:24 AM
Who cares?  This is just a bunch of random games to entertain us.  Alabama, Clemson and OSU are the three beat teams, as always.


Yeah, everyone else needs to jack it up a little. 
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: CWSooner on November 26, 2020, 01:38:13 AM
Yes, but if OU and ISU both win out, wouldn't that mean they would meet in the B12CG? ISU would be in with the best record in the B12. Your Sooners would be no worse than tied for second with OkSU and they'd win that tie based on H2H, no?
Gotcha!
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 06:05:44 AM
Probably, I think, realistically, we're looking at something end of year like this:

1.  Alabama
2.  Ohio State
3.  Clemson
4.  Cincinnati

The 1-4 outcome might be an indication they should not include G5 teams in the future no matter what.  The 2-3 outcome would be basically a 50-50 proposition between two very good teams.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 06:54:30 AM
Honestly, THIS is an example of the echo chamber here.  It's not about left vs right, it's about lazily believing something and then every one else chiming in with a "mm hmm" or "damn straight." 
It strikes me that on occasion, a lot of folks agree with a point, and on others, many disagree.  That is why we generate a lot of discussion at times.

I personally don't think we have many posters who simply post positive responses because they lazily believed something posted, probably not any in fact.

Of course, this is my opinion, and others may disagree with it.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 09:00:19 AM
Of course, this is my opinion, and others may disagree with it.
Spot on,it's a holiday so I shall refrain
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: bayareabadger on November 26, 2020, 09:21:16 AM
These rankings are still a way to produce buzz because people cannot help but bicker when you put numbers next to things. 

Fortunately, these numbers only mean a little more hype for games, unless you highly value the opinion of the committee. Which is you do, enjoy that.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 09:37:48 AM
Damn right, Um hmmm.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2020, 09:55:46 AM
I think NW and UI are held back because they are NW and UI.
the grand poobah of the committee is a Big Ten man
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 09:58:08 AM
I think "it" is simply ingrained in all of us, it could be Miss State or South Carolina in that group versus Michigan.  The "labels" carry weight.  Each of us admires when the underdog program does well, but we think/suspect/believe it's a fluke and not really real.  

And in the past, that has more often been the case than not.

But, if A&M or Florida met IU or NW on the field, they'd be large favorites in reality.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2020, 10:21:32 AM
I'd tune in to one of those matchups

bowl season?
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 10:22:36 AM
I'd tune in to one of those matchups

bowl season?
Yeah, we all would.  And I suspect we'd all think Florida would smack Indiana like a RHSC.

Ohio State would also if they played again.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 10:37:43 AM
No so sure,Hoosiers just may be having one of those seasons
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2020, 10:39:51 AM
Bucks could have a few frontline players out due to COVID
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 10:41:36 AM
No so sure,Hoosiers just may be having one of those seasons
I think they have a pretty good team, but who have they beat?  
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2020, 11:01:44 AM
I'd tune in to one of those matchups

bowl season?
Wabbit season!
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2020, 11:03:38 AM
UNC looked solid early and I think made it up to 5 or so in the AP, but I suspect many of us figured they weren't anywhere near that, for a reason.  Some of that was because the B1G started late of course.  Once UNC played a few more games they faded, still a pretty good team, but not #5.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 11:30:49 AM
I'm not familiar with or have followed the Gators.But if their Defense has a pulse they could make a push for the playoffs but have to win out 1st.With Trask slinging it like Sammy Baugh
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: bayareabadger on November 26, 2020, 11:49:47 AM
I'm not familiar with or have followed the Gators.But if their Defense has a pulse they could make a push for the playoffs but have to win out 1st.With Trask slinging it like Sammy Baugh
Trask is so good, and their choice to hire Grantham is going to be rectified soon.
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: MrNubbz on November 26, 2020, 12:07:10 PM
Thanx,Wasn't familiar with Grantham-he coached for the BROWNS '05-'07 but they were tough follow let alone the coaches.UF was 7th nationally in points allowed last year.I always liked Mullen but the pendulum could be swinging back their way - hope not too much
https://floridagators.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/todd-grantham/1192
Title: Re: First CFP Rankings
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2020, 12:51:01 PM
Florida's defense is bad.  However, it's less bad than it was early in the year.  But it's still not good at anything - not vs the pass, not vs the run, not at causing turnovers.  It tries to make the opponent punt maybe twice and assume the offense won't have to punt at all.  

In 7 games, our punter has 13 kicks.  Not bad.