Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Yeah, 3-4 points is probably about right, and most of that is crowd noise in key situations, right?

Some can be due to time zone changes and travel and unfamiliar surroundings.

I posted that most of it is due to crowd noise.  Do you disagree?

I would say where a 10+ point dog won.  One could argue for 7 points.  I think more recent results would be most enlightening anyway.

I do not think that this is necessarily correct because bowl opponents vary based on record. 

Ie, in years when Bama barely squeaks into a bowl at 6-6 they usually face a comparable team that also barely squeaked into that bowl at 6-6 or maybe 7-5.  Conversely, when Bama is 13-0 and #1 they typically face a comparable team that is 12-1 or so. 

I remember, years ago, having this discussion with a USC fan.  USC is 25-9 in Rose Bowls and 9-11 in other bowls.  The USC fan made the statement that "of course USC didn't do as well when they weren't in the RoseBowl because those USC teams weren't very good.  I pointed out that of course they weren't, but their opponents weren't very good either. 

USC has 55 Bowl appearances with:

• 34 wins
• 20 losses
• 1 win that got vacated (2005 Orange Bowl win over Oklahoma)

USC has one vacated loss as well, and officially 53 appearances because of those vacated games.

35-20 on the field, 34-19 officially.

Rose bowl opponents total record:  (308-32-8)--0.897

Non-Rose bowl opponents total record:  (178-62-2)--0.740

Records of teams favored by 10 or more (00-16):

I'm not saying it will happen, but that's what would placate the Gator Nation.

So, in an 8 team playoff where the 1-8 contest is played in 1's home stadium, we might expect an upset one time in eight games played.  If that #8 team often is the leading G5 team, one might expect them to have say a 1 in 6 chance of winning the second round at a "neutral" site, and perhaps the same shot in the NC game.  That is pretty low odds of course, which suggests one reality that they shouldn't play in the playoff in the first place.

Or you might accept those odds, a one chance in 8 x 6 x 6, which would happen eventually of course.

That is 0.35%, one shat in 300.  Do you think a team with one chance in 300 merits that chance?

If the motivation is simply more revenue, then why not 16 or 32 or 64?