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I'd guess not.  Fulton county where I live and where most of the subway exists has a lower rate of infection than Gwinnett and several rural counties here.

I didn't think Houston had much of a subway system.

Yeah, probably, but we tend to forget that upsets happen, and more often when you have a top ten pairing.  That 8th place team even if correctly seeded is still a very good team in most cases, probably the 3rd best opponent the 1st place team has faced.

I think this is doubtful because I think that when we go to an 8-team playoff the highest ranked G5 Champion is almost guaranteed to get a slot.  Additionally, all P5 Champions will probably get slots as well.  Thus, the #1 seed vs #8 seed CFP game is NOT going to be #1 vs #8.  

Since the CFP started in 2014 this is the lowest ranked (CFP) team that would have been included in an 8-team playoff with auto-bids for the P5 Champions and the highest ranked G5 Champion:

• 2014:  #20 Boise St would have played at #1 Bama
• 2015:  #18 Houston would have played at #1 Clemson
• 2016:  #15 WMU would have played at #1 Bama
• 2017:  #12 UCF would have played at #1 Clemson
• 2018:  #8 UCF would have played at #1 Bama
• 2019:  #17 Memphis would have played at #1 LSU

So with those assumptions the #8 seed would have been top-10 only once (UCF in 2018).  

FWIW, the seeds for 2014-2019 would have been (I'm assuming because I prefer it that the top-4 have to be league Champions):
2014:

• 12-1 #1 Bama (SEC Champ)
• 12-1 #2 Oregon (PAC Champ)
• 13-0 #3 FSU (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #4 tOSU (B1G Champ)
• 11-1 #5 Baylor (B12 Champ)
• 11-1 #6 TCU
• 10-2 #7 MissSt
• 11-2 #20 Boise St (MWC Champion)

2015:

• 13-0 #1 Clemson (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #2 Bama (SEC Champ)
• 12-1 #3 MSU (B1G Champ)
• 11-1 #4 Oklahoma (B12 Champ)
• 12-1 #5 Iowa
• 11-2 #6 Stanford (PAC Champ)
• 11-1 #7 tOSU
• 12-1 #18 Houston (AAC Champ)

2016:

• 13-0 #1 Bama (SEC Champ)
• 12-1 #2 Clemson (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #4 Washington (PAC Champ)
• 11-2 #5 PSU (B1G Champ)
• 11-1 #3 tOSU
• 10-2 #6 Michigan
• 10-2 #7 Oklahoma (B12 Champ)
• 13-0 #15 Western Michigan (MAC Champ)

2017:

• 12-1 #1 Clemson (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #2 Oklahoma (B12 Champ)
• 12-1 #3 UGA (SEC Champ)
• 11-2 #5 tOSU (B1G Champ)
• 11-1 #4 Bama
• 12-1 #6 Wisconsin
• 11-2 #8 USC (Pac Champ)
• 12-0 #12 UCF (AAC Champ)

2018:

• 13-0 #1 Bama (SEC Champ)
• 13-0 #2 Clemson (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #4 Oklahoma (B12 Champ)
• 12-1 #6 tOSU (B1G Champ)
• 12-0 #3 Notre Dame
• 11-2 #5 UGA
• 10-3 #9 Washington
• 12-0 #8 UCF (AAC Champ)

2019:

• 13-0 #1 LSU (SEC Champ)
• 13-0 #2 tOSU (B1G Champ)
• 13-0 #3 Clemson (ACC Champ)
• 12-1 #4 Oklahoma (B12 Champ)
• 11-2 #5 UGA
• 11-2 #6 Oregon (PAC Champ)
• 11-2 #7 Baylor
• 12-1 #17 Memphis (AAC Champ)

I would guess upsets happen more often on the underdog's home field

We could start by agreeing on the home field advantage, the true one, when competitive teams play a game.  Let's say 6 points?

The wiseguys usually say 3-4 but remember that means a 6-8 point swing. 

Ie, assuming that my Buckeyes and your Bulldogs are exactly equal then theoretically UGA would win by 3-4 points in Athens while tOSU would win by 3-4 points in Columbus.  

Example:

• UGA wins 17-14 in Athens
• tOSU wins 14-10 in Columbus

(or vice-versa).  

alabama's bowl record is quite good, but it should be considering their overall record.

I do not think that this is necessarily correct because bowl opponents vary based on record. 

Ie, in years when Bama barely squeaks into a bowl at 6-6 they usually face a comparable team that also barely squeaked into that bowl at 6-6 or maybe 7-5.  Conversely, when Bama is 13-0 and #1 they typically face a comparable team that is 12-1 or so.  

I remember, years ago, having this discussion with a USC fan.  USC is 25-9 in Rose Bowls and 9-11 in other bowls.  The USC fan made the statement that "of course USC didn't do as well when they weren't in the RoseBowl because those USC teams weren't very good.  I pointed out that of course they weren't, but their opponents weren't very good either.  

USC has 55 Bowl appearances with:

• 34 wins
• 20 losses
• 1 win that got vacated (2005 Orange Bowl win over Oklahoma)

There is winning the East some, and very occasionally going to the playoff?

(This gets me to my expectations are like goldfish theory, but that’s for later on)

Yeah, we need some playoff appearances. 
Winning the East isn't enough.  That should be the default.  We won the East twice under McElwain, but it didn't matter, because it was just an invitation to get beat up by Bama. 
Florida should win the East more than half the time and should win in Atlanta more than half the time we get there.

That's how you keep your job in Gainesville.  If both of those happen, we'll be in the playoff plenty.

This part bothered me and didn't seem right, but I couldn't put my finger on it.  But then I figured why:

what you're saying here isn't wrong, but here's why it feels odd - even when teams play twice in a season, they very nearly almost NEVER play at each other's home fields.  They play at one team's home field and then at a neutral site:  CCG or bowl game.

So within a season, at least, there isn't a 6-8 point swing. 

I meant in terms of the difference between my place and your place.  Ie, if my Buckeyes and your Gators are considered "exactly equal" then, in theory, UF would be favored by about 3-4 points in the Swamp while tOSU would be favored by about 3-4 points in the Shoe.  Thus, the 6-8 point swing.  

But you are right, in almost all cases when teams play twice in a season the second game is at a neutral site so it is only a 3-4 point swing.  However, if we get home field for the first round of the expanded 8-team playoff then I think we'll see some two game sets at each other's fields and/or at the same team's field twice.  

Using the examples I posted above for 8-team CFP fields:
2014:  No rematches in the first round.  There are two potential rematches.  #1 seed Bama beat #7 seed MissSt in Tuscaloosa and could meet them again if both made the CG.  #5 seed Baylor beat #6 seed TCU in Baylor and could meet them again if both made the CG.  

2015:  #3 seed MSU played both #5 seed Iowa (B1GCG) and #7 seed tOSU (in Columbus) and could meet tOSU in the second round and/or Iowa in the CG.  

2016:  #4 seed PSU beat #5 seed tOSU in Happy Valley and the rematch would be in Happy Valley in the first round of the playoffs.  Both of them already played #6 seed Michigan so the winner could also have a rematch in the CG.  

2017:  #4 seed tOSU and #6 seed UW played in the B1GCG and would rematch if both made the CG.  

2018:  No potential rematches.  

2019:  #1 seed LSU and #5 seed UGA played in the SECCG and could rematch in the second round.