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Topic: ELA September 29 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 24, 2018, 12:13:08 PM »

I hate to start these so early, but I'll be out Thursday and Friday, and I'm not sure how I'll get them all done otherwise...

Central Michigan Chippewas (1-3) at #21 Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 2-1)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - FS1

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Michigan State is the last Power 5 team in the country to play a home Saturday game. Between a Friday opener, a pair of road games, including a west coast trip, and a bye week, the September schedule for the Spartans has been very irregular. Not to mention, this is their first day game after three night games. Is that the reason for Michigan State's inconsistent play? Maybe a factor, but far from the biggest. At the top of the list is the offensive line which has failed to generate any push in the run game, and is starting to have an impact on the play of Lewerke, who seems to lack the pocket confidence we saw last year. To that end, it's clear the staff spent a lot of time convincing him to stay in the pocket, and he doesn't appear to be totally comfortable there. The offense got better late against Indiana when they started letting him run again. But a lot will open up if the play action starts to work. Getting L.J. Scott back, who has missed the last game and a half will help some, but the holes simply aren't there, it doesn't matter who is getting the carries. The Spartans are 4th in the Big Ten at 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but 13th at 3.3 yards per carry. The difference between the run and pass defense is just as stark. Michigan State still boasts the top run defense in the nation, at an insane 32.7 ypg allowed on only 1.1 ypc. Put it this way. Central Michigan could run for 237 yards this week, and Michigan State would still be ahead of Iowa for best run defense in the conference. They could give up 305, and still be ahead of everyone but Iowa. Utah State is averaging 245.7 rushing ypg otherwise, they had 25 against Michigan State. Arizona State is averaging 155.0 ypg otherwise, they had 44. Indiana is averaging 235.0 otherwise, they had 29. The flip side is that teams are throwing it at will. Granted the overall numbers look even worse because teams are also throwing it a lot, given the alternative, but they are still 10th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per attempt, and #8 in pass efficiency defense. So not great. But Central Michigan would kill to have Michigan State's problems. The Chippewas picked up their first win of the season on Saturday, an ugly 17-5 win over FCS Maine, where they were outgained 265-177. The Central Michigan offense has been an unmitigated mess this year, dead last in the FBS in S&P+. They have the second fewest yards per game, third fewest points per game, and fifth most turnovers per game. The offense has at least ticked up a notch since Tony Poljan (who had some Big Ten offers, including Michigan State, to play tight end) was benched at quarterback in favor of JUCO transfer Tommy Lazzaro. Lazzaro adds a running dynamic, with 99 rushing yards, and a pair of scores, in just a game and a half of action. They show a bit more life under him, but not enough. With two more injuries to an already struggling offensive line, I'm not sure how convincingly Michigan State can pull away, but absent some defensive breakdown, I'm also not sure how an offense that failed to hit 200 yards against Maine can move the ball enough.

MICHIGAN STATE 37, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 7

Indiana Hoosiers (0-1, 3-1) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-1, 1-3)

NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

It seemed like while Rutgers was still a year or two away from competing for even a bowl bid, that they were pulling themselves out of what had to have been rock bottom in 2016, when they went 0-9 in Big Ten play, getting shut out four times, and failing to reach single digits six times. They were so bad they gave Michigan State their lone Big Ten...49-0. But at least that Rutgers team hammered an FCS opponent, and beat a bowl bound New Mexico team, and last year carved out 3 conference wins. This Rutgers team is now failing to even compete with the supposed automatic wins on their schedule, let alone beat them. This Scarlet Knights team just lost by a combined 70 points to Kansas and Buffalo. The most obvious problem had been ball security. Rutgers already has thrown 8 interceptions, as part of 12 turnovers, 2nd most in the country, with a national worst -7 differential. They were -6 against Kansas alone. But against Buffalo last week, they had no turnovers, and were +2. Problem is they were still outgained by 160 yards, averaging 3.79 ypp compared to 6.95 for Buffalo. Their red zone offense has been lousy, at 66.7%, 3rd worst nationally. Even when they score, it's not in the end zone. Rutgers got into the red zone on two of their first three possessions on Saturday, yet came away with just two field goals, and were down 14-6, despite the offense at that point being looking serviceable. They followed that start by going three and out on four consecutive possessions and five of six. Indiana had a real chance to make a statement in a big home night game against a ranked opponent, but their offense didn't show up. They can't get caught in a trap game between Michigan State and Ohio State, because with Iowa, Penn State and Michigan to follow, it becomes very tough to find a path to bowl eligibility if they stumble here. That almost happened two years ago when Indiana went out East to Piscataway, fell behind that winless Rutgers team 24-13 early in the 3rd quarter, before rallying for three consecutive touchdowns. After a 6-6 finish, a loss there would have cost them bowl eligibility. Feels like a similar scenario here. To take control, Indiana needs to get their run game back on track. Stevie Scott had been rolling along, but he was held to 18 yards on 11 carries, and as a team, the Hoosiers only mustered 29 yards on 32 carries (0.9 ypc). Michigan State has the nation's #1 run defense right now, so there's no reason to think that's an ongoing issue. But they probably don't want to have to ask Peyton Ramsey to throw the ball 46 times again. His 272 passing yards were a season high for him, but to do it he needed that season high attempts (previous high was 19 fewer at 27), with a season low completion percentage (69.6%), and below average yards per attempt. Not to fear, Rutgers has the conference's worst run defense, allowing 220.3 ypg on 5.6 ypc. For three consecutive weeks, the Rutgers defense has allowed the opponent's leading rusher to get a season high in rushing yardage. Stevie Scott ran for 204 yards against a Virginia defense that just held Louisville to 3 points.

INDIANA 35, RUTGERS 15

Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 1-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-1, 0-3)

3:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN

Purdue got that monkey off their back in a major way, with a decisive home win over what had been a red hot Boston College team. Winning the game, even by the margin they did, was surprising, but what was shocking was how well the defense, which had been struggling, was able to shut down the Eagles' offense, which was just rolling over teams. Granted, after seeing Wake Forest lay another egg on defense last week, leading to the firing of their defensive coordinator, maybe there was a little bit of fool's gold there. But the Boiler defense was smothering. They held BC to just 229 yards of total offense, forced 2 turnovers, and they only got to double digits in points with a garbage time touchdown against the backups in the final minute. Anthony Brown had as bad a stat line as you'll see all season, 13-27 for 96 yards, a touchdown, 4 interceptions, and -22 rushing yards. Purdue had a plan, stuff A.J. Dillon, and force Boston College to throw from behind. The plan was obvious enough, but executing it was a taller task, with Dillon as tough a back to stop as there is in the nation. They held him to just 59 yards on 19 carries, his worst game since his second game on campus, when he was still a backup. It's a different animal this week, trying to shut down the mobile Adrian Martinez. Michigan has the talent to make a lot of offensive lines look bad, but Nebraska's looks particularly undermanned right now. Between passes and rushes, Martinez's plays totaled 10 yards on 22 plays. The Huskers didn't top the 100 yard mark in total offense until there was 6:20 left in the game. Turning the tide starts with doing a much better job controlling the trenches. Martinez has the ability to turn a small hole into a big play, but he's not even getting that right now. Right now, Frost's offense can't work with this line, and for the moment Andrew Bunch, who looks to be a better passer right now, may be the better option to just try and let the wideouts make a couple of plays. But it's clear Nebraska isn't playing for the moment, and nobody is suggesting the prudent move is to pull Martinez. Whatever game reps he gets now will be more valuable towards competing for conference championships in 2020 and beyond, than picking up an extra win in 2018. But getting those extra bowl practices would do this team a world of good, and with trips remaining to Madison, Evanston, Columbus and Iowa City, it's clear that every home game is a must win to keep any such hopes alive. While the Purdue pass defense showed up last week, passing on them, has been the way to beat them. It wasn't just shutting down Dillon that announced their run defense was legit, they were already a top 5 run defense in the conference based on yards per carry. Weird stat, Purdue has yet to collect a road win against any of the Big Ten newbies. They are 1-7 in Happy Valley since Penn State joined the conference. They are also 0-4 in Minneapolis since TCF Bank Stadium opened. That makes them a combined 1-15 in the five newest conference venues. I think they are due for 2-15.

PURDUE 31, NEBRASKA 24

#14 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-0, 1-2)

4:30 - Evanston, IL - FOX

Well, I said last week that Nebraska would serve as a good litmus test between Notre Dame's elite defense, and the lousy Western Michigan and SMU defenses. In a weird way, if Michigan had simply looked good, I'd have an easier time drawing a conclusion than what just happened. Michigan so thoroughly dominated both sides of the ball, that it makes me question whether Nebraska is just a lousy team in a traditional helmet. I suspect they are worse than we thought, but there's no denying Michigan's performance. For some reason, Karan Higdon never seems fully appreciated, but it's clear that when he's in there, this offense just looks better. Is he a Day 1 NFL pick? No, but he's an every down back, with big play capability, who is 2nd in conference in yards per carry, at 7.9. They put up 56 points, and honestly the quarterbacks didn't have an overly impressive game. The most promising thing may have been that unlike the Notre Dame game, the coaching staff allowed Patterson to have his way with the short passes. Move the ball around, take what the defense gives you. The 18 receptions were spread out among 10 targets. The only "maybe" downside is that a week after his coming out party, I'd like to see Peoples-Jones remain an alpha in the passing game, and while he still made his impact in special teams, 1 catch for 10 yards isn't the follow up I was looking for. The way the defense looked, you wonder if Northwestern will be able to move the ball at all, particularly now that their starting running back was forced to retire due to a medical condition. Right off the bat, Nebraska's offensive line looked overmatched in a way you rarely see in a Big Ten game where Rutgers isn't involved. Northwestern returned 4 starters from an offensive line that played well together down the stretch last year, a major reason for the pivot in their season, after being a swinging gate early. So have they rolled that over into 2018? Well sort of. Their adjusted sack rate of 3.82% is 30th in the nation, #2 in the Big Ten. But even with a talent like Larkin, their 3.2 ypc on rush attempts was worst in the conference. So you have a projected first round NFL pick at quarterback with a line that has been the second best pass blocking unit, caveat for style of play getting the ball out quick, and you have the worst yards per carry in the conference, plus you just lost your starting tailback. Clayton Thorson may break the NCAA record for pass attempts in a game. He threw it 52 times in their loss to Akron, and may have to do something similar. That's their only chance to stay in it, but if they start going three and out, that's also a recipe for it getting out of hand in a hurry too. I think the Cats play closer to the team that I expected them to be when I picked this as a Northwestern win in the preseason, and hang around for a while, but I don't see any way they can keep up against this defense with a totally one dimensional offense.

MICHIGAN 33, NORTHWESTERN 21

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)

7:30 - State College, PA - ABC

Kind of early in the year for the Big Ten to be playing what sure looks right now like it's going to be the game of the year. While Iowa-Wisconsin last weekend served as almost a de facto West Division title game, the presence of Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, makes this feel like an important game, but one where the winner could easily lose two more division games. So that "two game lead over the loser, and nobody else matters" we had last week isn't present. However, in each of the previous two seasons, flipping the result of this game would have flipped the East's representative in Indianapolis to the other. Penn State has looked inconsistent, but their A game looks every bit of their A game from the previous two seasons. But it seems to disappear for stretches, long stretches. They should have lost to Appalachian State, they led Pitt by only 1 late in the half, and only led at all because of Pitt's kicker, and trailed late in the 3rd quarter against Illinois. But as iffy as things looked at times against Pitt and Illinois, when the Nittany Lions turned it on, oh boy did they. Ohio State has been consistent, elite offensively, at time shaky on defense. Seeing how TCU struggled against Texas' defense made me question the Buckeyes on that side of the ball even more. Dwayne Haskins continues to impress, picking up plays in chunk, 10.4 ypa, while still showing ball control beyond his years, with only one pick. While Ohio State's defense has had questions, Penn State's hasn't looked a ton better. They improvement since the opener is noticeable, but even James Franklin isn't sure what to do on that side of the ball. He had a unit at one point early in the Illinois game with only 2 starters on the field. Just rotating through guys trying to find the right combination. The fact that the Nittany Lions pass defense now ranks fourth in the Big Ten per play, and fifth in overall passing defense is fairly impressive considering how far behind they were after letting Appalachian State's Zac Thomas complete 66% of his passes for 270 yards on 7.1 ypa. Considering he's completed 86% of his passes since then, maybe Thomas is just better than we knew. Or maybe Penn State played Pitt in the rain, and Kent State and Illinois teams that feature run first quarterback mentalities. Remember Kent State brought in a former Gus Malzahn quarterback, and Illinois hired RichRod's QB coach. Vegas has no respect for the night white out crowd, installing Penn State as a home underdog for the first time since the last time Ohio State visited. That was the game that jump started Franklin's program at a time it seemed more likely Franklin would be fired by 2018 than have returned the Nittany Lions to the nation's elite. While the story that night was Penn State's defense totally shutting Ohio State down late to allow the comeback, on this night it will be Trace McSorley, reminding everyone why he, now Haskins was the unanimous preseason first team all-conference quarterback. TCU's Shawn Robinson threw for 308 yards on 60% completions. He's never even otherwise thrown for 200 yards. That gives me concerns about how the Buckeyes defense will hold up against better opponents. And while the Ohio State recievers have greatly outperformed expectations, I'm nervous about their abilities in route running when the mentality of "get them the ball and let them make plays" in space, involves doing so in a lot less space than they'll have on Saturday night. Ohio State will have their moments, but I think the White Out can help stem the type of momentum bursts that swung the TCU game in Ohio State's favor.

PENN STATE 41, OHIO STATE 31

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** September 24, 2018, 12:38:37 PM »

Has there ever been a bigger gap between the "game of the week" and #2? This week you have tOSU/PSU which, according to our Power Rankings is #1 v #2 so effectively the "game of the year". After that you have a bunch (6) of byes, an OOC payday game, and a bunch of crap.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #2 on:** September 24, 2018, 07:48:52 PM »

The other three games are all home dogs, hosting teams that they could realistically upset.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** September 24, 2018, 08:08:11 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 24, 2018, 07:48:52 PM

The other three games are all home dogs, hosting teams that they could realistically upset.

That does make it more interesting but, at least according to our power rankings, they should be pretty big dogs:
#8 IU @ #14 RU
#9 PU @ #13 UNL
#3 M # #10/11 NU

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** September 24, 2018, 08:55:54 PM »

The Northwestern one is unlikeliest, but Indiana and Purdue are still Indiana and Purdue.

Neither is above barfing up a game to a Rutgers or a Nebraska on the right day.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #5 on:** September 24, 2018, 09:44:36 PM »

NU could make M's life difficult. B1G road games are a bitch.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #6 on:** September 25, 2018, 08:23:14 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 24, 2018, 09:44:36 PM

NU could make M's life difficult. B1G road games are a bitch.

They are, but speaking as someone who has watched my team in all 14 of them, there isn't an easier road venue than Northwestern for many reasons including:

It is not a big or loud stadium (by loud I am referring here to stadium design not just crowd).
There are a LOT of B1G alumni in the Chicago area (as you obviously know since you are one). A decent number of those fans of the road team go to the NU game because it is close for them.
Chicago is a fun trip and a trip that is generally easier for a fan of the opposing team to sell the wife or g/f (as applicable) on as opposed to dragging her along on a "football only" trip. Consequently, and cumulative with #2, there are always a LOT of fans of the road team at NU's home B1G games.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** September 25, 2018, 08:53:47 AM »

Since I run the Power Rankings Thread I tend to view our match-ups through that lens. For example, I tend to be more interested in #13 vs #14 than in #3 vs #12 because I see 13/14 as an interesting match-up that will sort out the bottom of the rankings where I see 3/12 as a near-gimmie for #3. That said, this week there are six teams not playing B1G games:

#4 UW is off
#5 MSU has an OOC game with Directional Michigan
#6 Iowa is off
#7 Maryland is off
#10/11 Minnesota is off
#12 Illinois is off

That leaves these four B1G games:

#1 Ohio State @ #2 Penn State
#3 Michigan @ #10/11 Northwestern
#8 Indiana @ #14 Rutgers
#9 Purdue @ #13 Nebraska

Just generically, any #1 v #2 game is automatically the "game of the week" and in theory it is the "game of the year" but, of course, there is a possibility of more than one #1 v #2 game per year. For example, if Penn State wins then the PSU/M game on November 3 could be another #1 v #2 game and if PSU also wins that then the very next week the PSU/UW game could be a third #1 v #2 game this year.

As @Brutus Buckeye pointed out upthread, what adds some interest here is that in all four cases the higher ranked team is on the road. That should give the four lower ranked teams a better chance than they would have in Columbus, Ann Arbor, Bloomington, and West Lafayette.

Anonymous Coward · « **Reply #8 on:** September 25, 2018, 10:57:05 AM »

Wow that's a lot of idle games this weekend. Not just for one weekend but also for this early in the season. I guess that's a symptom of switching to the 9-game schedule so recently.
I have a strong distaste for idle weeks that come this early. The last weekend of October or first of November usually feels best, though injury status can change that.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9 on:** September 25, 2018, 11:00:41 AM »

Iowa and UW probably scheduled their bye weeks for this one on purpose. Lots of guys in the ice baths after that fist fight last weekend.

As for M at NU.. I expect ~20K M fans in the joint on Saturday.

ELA · « **Reply #10 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:05:28 PM »

The move to the 9 game schedule has crushed MSU with bye weeks. In 2016 it was Week 2, in 2017 and 2018 it's in Week 3, because they had already scheduled 3 non-conference games when they made the move, so what had been the bye week became conference game #9, and what was supposed to be non-conference opponent #4 became the bye week.

There was some talk about how much that Week 2 bye week in 2016 made a bad situation worse, that they opened with Furman and then the bye. So there was no way to use the bye week to fix issues, because there was no way to know they existed. That moving to Lewerke at QB had to be on the fly, when most teams would have tried to make a QB change during the bye week.

Fortunately next year it seems to be back in Week 8, so hopefully it's fixed going forward. The start to this year of (Friday night home - Saturday night west coast - bye week - Saturday night road) has been very odd from a fan perspective

FearlessF · « **Reply #11 on:** September 25, 2018, 12:07:26 PM »

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 10:57:05 AM

Wow that's a lot of idle games this weekend.

Now I know why Purdue-Nebraska got a 2:30 kick

ELA · « **Reply #12 on:** September 26, 2018, 03:08:39 PM »

All picks in

ELA · « **Reply #13 on:** September 26, 2018, 03:09:09 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on September 25, 2018, 12:07:26 PM

Now I know why Purdue-Nebraska got a 2:30 kick

I don't think the correlation between game caliber and kick time really even exists much anymore

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Topic: ELA September 29 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 29 Breakdown

medinabuckeye1

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Brutus Buckeye

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medinabuckeye1

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847badgerfan

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Anonymous Coward

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847badgerfan

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ELA

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FearlessF

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ELA

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ELA

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