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Topic: ELA September 14 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 10, 2019, 03:35:28 PM »

Pittsburgh Panthers (1-1) at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0)

NOON - State College, PA - ABC

It's a shame that this series, which absolutely should be played every season, is coming to an end again, after the most recent iteration. Pitt won Round 1, escaping 42-39, after leading by 3 touchdowns shortly before halftime. But even though the Nittany Lions lost that game, their strong 4th quarter carried over into the most recent two games of the series. Over the last 9 quarters, Penn State has outscored Pitt 102-27. The 2018 Panthers team wound up reaching the ACC Championship Game, but weren't even as good as probably Pitt's previous two teams. A win over Ohio last Saturday snapped a 4 game losing streak, and with Penn State and Central Florida to follow, it's a good thing they did. Narduzzi's best two teams at Pitt have done it on offense, namely running the ball, but he may finally have his best defense. It's only two games in, but it's the pass rush which is really getting the job done. Rashad Weaver, Pitt's best pass rusher, was lost for the season with a knee injury in August, and yet the Panthers still rank #9 nationally in sack rate at 12.86%, while still ranking top 30 against the run. That is bad news for a Penn State front that failed to open any running lanes against Buffalo, running for just 78 yards on 3.3 ypc, with 58 of those yards coming on one QB scramble. Take that away, and it's downright ugly, with 20 yards on 0.9 ypc. Sean Clifford was efficient, completing 73% of his passes, for nearly 13 ypa, with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. But to be so reliant on the pass against Buffalo is a little troubling. The Lions did excel at quick strikes, scoring touchdowns on drives of 2 plays, 1 play, 3 plays, 5 plays and 4 plays, to go with a defensive touchdown. Buffalo was able to play their game for a half, but once it started to snowball, the Nittany Lions found their groove, running just 52 plays to Buffalo's 90. Pitt has the same goals as Buffalo did. They aren't winning another 42-39 game. As improved as the defense looks, the offense is an absolute mess, from the coaches down. Most troubling to Pitt fans has to be how decent they look in the first half, and then the opposing defense figures something out, and Pitt's offensive coaching staff has no response. Pitt has scored a total of 3 second half points through two games. Penn State is averaging the most second half points in the nation. So if Pitt hangs around for 30 minutes, there is no reason for panic in Happy Valley. If Pitt finds themselves in a hole early, it could get really ugly. Like 2018 ugly.

PENN STATE 36, PITTSBURGH 17

#6 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (2-0)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - FOX

Uh oh. Maybe I just overrated Cincinnati. The rest of the Big Ten better hope so. I had the Bearcats #21 in my preseason countdown, and the Buckeyes simply rolled over them. Justin Fields is doing everything in his power to silence any doubts about his arm, completing 76% of his passes through two games, with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions, good for #3 in the nation in Total QBR. On paper, I'm not sure Indiana's secondary is any better than Cincinnati's. Ball State threw for nearly 300 yards on them in the opener, but last week, Eastern Illinois (albeit a bad FCS team) was unable to throw the ball even a little bit on the Hoosiers, completing 44% of their passes, for just 2.6 ypa. On the other side, Indiana should test an Ohio State secondary, which had major lapses at times a year ago. The Hoosiers are throwing for nearly 400 yards per game, and doing it without Nick Westbrook and Donavan Hale being much of a factor yet. Whop Philyor has been the early breakout star, and Peyton Hendershot has been the best tight end in the conference thus far. Indiana needs to find better balance to reach bowl eligibility though. Stevie Scott has not looked at all like the surprise star we saw last September. Scott has averaged just 54 ypg on 3.5 ypc, against Ball State and Eastern Illinois. Last year, as a true freshman, Scott opened with 129.3 ypg on 5.6 ypc. After a midseason hiccup, Scott closed with 116 ypg over his final five, reaching 100 yards in four of those. New quarterback Michael Penix has shown an ability to use Scott more out of the backfield. I doubt there will be any quarterback controversy, after a three way camp battle, but Michael Penix struggled with interceptions against Ball State, and while he was fine against Eastern Illinois, Peyton Ramsey, the 2018 starter, was actually better. If the Hoosier offense struggles early, will Indiana fans quickly forget how much they wanted Penix to take the job away from Ramsey less than 365 days ago?

OHIO STATE 38, INDIANA 16

#21 Maryland Terrapins (2-0) at Temple Owls (1-0)

NOON - Philadelphia, PA - CBSSN

So does Maryland print their own Revenge Tour shirts now? Last year the Terps were flying high after a win over Texas and a dismantling of Bowling Green, only to get smacked by three touchdowns at home to Temple. After running Syracuse off the field last week, Maryland is again the flavor of the week, this time getting back into the AP Poll, where they had only previously appeared in for 1 week since the start of the 2011 season. Get through this, and it's 2 weeks of hype building for a home date, as likely a top 20 team, hosting Penn State. Quick research here, but the last time Byrd Stadium hosted a game between two ranked teams was the 1985 season opener, also against Penn State, when the #19 Nittany Lions upset the #7 Terrapins. But enough about 2 weeks from now, Temple is not to be slept on, and the 35-14 loss last year should help serve notice. Granted it's just Bucknell, but Temple's offense looked fantastic in their opener, with 700 yards of offense. Anthony Russo, who struggled with his accuracy last year, completing just 57% of his passes, and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns, completed 32 of 41 passes (78%). Between Russo and backup Todd Centeio, Temple attempted 46 passes, to just 36 runs...and that was in a blowout over an FCS school. That goes against everything Rod Carey said in coming over from Northern Illinois, that they wanted to run the ball. It's not that they struggled to run either, averaging over 5 ypc a carry. But considering those splits, and how strong Maryland looked against the run, I'd be shocked to see that flip this week. Syracuse did throw for 330 yards, but Maryland was able to force turnovers and keep the play in front of them. That may have been a conscious decision against an Orange offense that is going to get their yards. Temple hit a few big plays last week, and they need to get those again, because Russo's interception propensity may jump back if Maryland can force them to sustain long drives. Temple plays a defense that can at least much things up a little bit, and Maryland's defense still scares me. But right now, there is no slowing down this Maryland offense.

MARYLAND 41, TEMPLE 35

Eastern Michigan Eagles (1-1) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0)

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

This game is the ultimate clash of styles. Illinois wants to get up and down the field, cover up their defensive inefficiencies by challenging you to go score for score with them. The year started off right with 66 points over their first 6 quarters (44.0 ppg), but then only scored once in the second half last week against a UConn defense that was historically bad in 2018, and were scoreless over the final 21 minutes of the game. Eastern Michigan wants to bog the game down and win a slug fest. The Eagles did not look completely overmatched against Kentucky last week, finishing with just 75 fewer yards and 2 fewer first downs. You aren't going to get a MAC upset of an SEC team by losing the turnover battle though. The Illini have their own problems on that front though, losing 3 turnovers in Storrs. Pulling an upset in one of their two Power 5 games is a nice feather in the Eagles' cap, while winning to complete a 3-0 start is absolutely necessary if Illinois has any bowl aspirations. It may sound like a low bar, but the Illini have only won their first three games once since their 2001 Big Ten Championship season. To get the offense on track, Illinois needs to start stretching the field. The book is out on Illinois, and teams are stacking the box. In 2018 the Illini finished #6 in the nation, picking up 6.1 ypc. Through 2 games, the Illini are nearly 2 ypc lower, at 4.3, and that's against a MAC bottom feeder (Akron), and a team coming off the worst statistical defensive season ever (UConn). It only gets harder from here. Michigan transfer Brandon Peters has been reliable, hitting on 66% of his passes, with 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception. They are trusting him to go downfield though, averaging just 6.7 ypa, 3rd lowest in the Big Ten, and 2nd worst in yards per completion. He should have plenty of protection, with Eastern Michigan thus far struggling to replace their starting front seven from a year ago, all of whom graduated. If Rod Smith can't re-discover that offensive explosiveness from last year this week, Illinois might as well just fire Lovie on Sunday.

ILLINOIS 31, EASTERN MICHIGAN 23

UNLV Rebels (1-1) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1)

3:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN

Northwestern got off to their patented terrible start, led by a non-existent pass attack. Pat Fitzgerald used both quarterbacks, as he did last year, but T.J. Green was the (slightly) more effective of the two, before suffering a season ending injury. So the job is now 100% Hunter Johnson's. Johnson was a star recruit, chose Clemson, and after finding himself as a redshirt freshman stuck behind true freshman Trevor Lawrence, left for Evanston. Not being able to beat out the best quarterback prospect since maybe Andrew Luck was not exactly a black mark against him, he could still have a very high ceiling. But oh my, did he look horrible. Completed just 35% of his passes, on 3.2 ypa, with a pair of interceptions. As bad as it was, at least it was against a Stanford defense that is annually pretty good...and then went out and allowed USC's backup quarterback to go 28-33 for 377 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks. So the concern level about Northwestern's offense went from a yellow to at least an orange. Maybe they can build some confidence by getting their ground game on track, with a hopefully healthy Isaiah Bowser. Bowser, who was a revelation to a horrible Wildcat ground game over the second half a year ago, went out with an injury after averaging 5.4 ypc on just 10 carries (54 yards for the non-NU alums out there). The Wildcats' other backs combined for 16 yards on 9 carries, which shows both their ineffectiveness and the coaching staffs correct lack of faith in them. Hunter Johnson showed some running ability, but wasn't effective with it. Fitzgerald hasn't said one way or the other, but Bowser has practiced some, and he gets to face a Rebel defense that just surrendered 214 rushing yards and 43 points to Arkansas State last week. And the UNLV offense doesn't appear to do be capable of doing anything against Northwestern. Armani Rogers still seems to be nothing more than an athlete playing quarterback. Teams are selling out to stop his running ability, and doing it effectively. He ran 17 times last week, for 2 yards, with only one run (14 yards) of over 10 yards. And as a passer, he just isn't developing, going 8-23 for 42 yards and a pick. Down 43-10 to Arkansas State, he was benched for redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad, who took the Rebels downfield for a score, going 3-3 for 70 yards. Coach Tony Sanchez has said Rogers is still his starter, but you have to wonder how much leash he still has. If Oblad is a viable option, why not find a way to get them both on the field? Not that it matters this week.

NORTHWESTERN 35, UNLV 12

Georgia Southern Eagles (1-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0)

3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN

Somebody probably should tell Minnesota's athletic department that this isn't how you are supposed to schedule. Having your non-conference be an FCS school and a pair of Group of 5 schools is a common scheduling strategy to get to bowl eligibility, even if you aren't earning any bonus points along the way. However, in doing that you aren't supposed to play a top 3 FCS school, followed by travelling across the country to play one of the best Group of 5 teams on the road, just to come back home and play a triple-option team. The Gophers could be a deceptively impressive 3-0 after this week. If Minnesota wants to beat a triple option team, their trench play, which has been a program staple for nearly two decade now, needs to play a lot better than it did in the first two games, when they've produced the Big Ten's second worst rush offense and the third worst rush defense. The Eagles had three players rush for triple digits in last week's win over Maine, in Matt LaRoche (154), Justin Tomlin (132), and Logan Wright (114). But on the whole this does not look like the 10-3 Georgia Southern team from a year ago. They got blasted, 55-3 by LSU, and only beat FCS Maine by one score. If starting quarterback Shai Werts, who missed the Maine game with an injury, returns, that will help some, but this offense did nothing against LSU with him. Even against good defenses, this offense usually poses somewhat of a challenge. Even in two tight ball games Kirk Ciarocca has not looked willing to open up the offense for Tanner Morgan, but the Eagles' secondary has looked terrible through two games, surrendering over 650 passing yards. The Gophers have relied on a steady, reliable passing attack, that's top three in the Big Ten in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But at just 20.5 attempts per game, they are over 12 attempts below the conference average of 33.0. The "wrinkle" for Minnesota's defense is that Georgia Southern's triple option isn't a true triple option like what Michigan saw against Army last week. It's a hybrid with a zone run offense, which several schools run now, and is a lot closer to what these teams are used to preparing for. I still need to see more from the Minnesota front seven before I believe they can stop any run game, but I don't think Georgia Southern has the personnel or uniqueness to go totally wild either.

MINNESOTA 37, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 21

Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) at #18 Michigan State Spartans (2-0)

4:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX

Last year Michigan State's high hopes began to wilt in the desert, making it the next stop on Big Ten revenge weekend. Arizona State still has plenty of weapons, that gave the Spartans defense fits last year, in spite of the low score. The difference is Michigan State's defensive line is a lot better, and Arizona State's offensive line is an absolute mess. It was already going to to be a point of weakness for the Sun Devils, and then injuries have exacerbated the situation. Across the board on Football Outsiders their line ranks in the bottom 30, including 5th worst in sack rate. Michigan State's defensive line ranks #2 in overall line yards, #5 in standard plays, and #1 in power success rate at 0.00%, meaning they have not allowed a 1st down conversion on a single 3rd or 4th and 2 or less. Also, while it was the Spartans trying to adjust to the trip and the climate last year, it's now on Arizona State. While the weather extreme won't be like last year, Arizona State does have a true freshman making his first career road start. He's going to be under pressure all night, so he's either going to have to play well over his head to make tons of quick decisions, on quick routes, or play a Houdini to create on his own. The Spartans made a clear choice to focus all efforts on N'Keal Harry last year, and let other guys beat them. It sort of served it's intended purpose, in spite of Harry's 6 catch, 89 yard effort. But the other weapons did make them pay, and Arizona State threw for 380 yards, led by Eno Benjamin who was totally shut down running, but had his best game of the season as a pass catcher, with 6 catches for 54 yards. Arizona State already resorted to that plan this year, due to their blocking troubles, with Benjamin only picking up 69 yards on 2.9 ypc against FCS Sacramento State, but catching 4 passes for 94 yards. They rank dead last in the FBS in team rushing yards among teams who haven't yet faced a Power 5 team. Arizona State's defense will serve as a very good barometer for whether Michigan State's offense is actually "fixed" or if last week was a mirage. The secondary is unproven, but the front seven, which gave the Spartans line as much trouble as anyone last year, looks to be even better, even without a singular talent like Renell Wren. If the Spartans can establish some running game, even if it doesn't quite look like last week, I just struggle to see how the Sun Devils score even as many as the 16 points they scored last year, with a better offense, at home.

MICHIGAN STATE 28, ARIZONA STATE 14

TCU Horned Frogs (1-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (1-1)

7:30 - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

This line has been jumping back and forth all week, but no matter where it lands, all the media types talk like TCU is a guaranteed winner. I'm not seeing it. That Nevada loss looks somehow worse than it did at the time. But I also think the Vanderbilt win is being written off too casually. Vanderbilt is by no means a good team, but they have some really good offensive weapons. Obviously the Purdue injuries are a factor, with Markus Bailey, their best defender, being done for the year. Starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar remains a game time decision. I'll go with the assumption that he's going to play. The case for Purdue remains the same, too many mental mistakes, and they don't play up to their ability when they make them. It cost them at Nevada, as it did in multiple games last week, but they cleaned a lot up last week against Vandy. For their part, it's tough to get a read on TCU, they opened against Pine Bluff, where they fumbled the ball seven times (recovering 5); and scored touchdowns on only 2 of 9 red zone trips into the red zone. It's a case of strength on strength with Purdue wanting/needing to pass the ball, but the Horned Frogs' secondary being the best part of their defense. The Golden Lions used two quarterbacks, completed less than half of their passes, on 4.1 ypa. Purdue knew their run game would suffer, but they've been the worst run offense in the Big Ten, at just 2.7 ypc, while running the ball less than any team. Purdue might not mind being one dimensional, but TCU is a tough team to do that against. TCU's passing game was supposed to take a big step forward with the addition of Kansas State transfer Alex Delton, but he was horrible in the opener. True freshman Max Duggan, the crown jewel of their 2019, who chose them over Notre Dame, came in and played really well, giving us a good old fashioned quarterback controversy. Patterson can't afford to wait, because the he cannot afford to waste what talent he has at wideout. Jalen Reagor was the sure thing, as good as any receiver in the Big XII, but the question of who was going to compliment him was answered resoundingly by senior TreVontae Hights, who had an 8 catch, 108 yard breakout, after TOTALLING 6 receptions in his first three years combined. If Sindelar is a no go, this pick changes, because the Boilermakers have no run game, and TCU's secondary is too good to run Brohm's offense in your debut against, but between two teams that had very sloppy Week 1s, I've only seen Purdue put together a strong performance, and I feel better about them playing a clean game at home than I do about TCU travelling to play under the lights.

PURDUE 28, TCU 27

Northern Illinois Huskies (1-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1)

8:00 - Lincoln, NE - FS1

The Big Ten Revenge Saturday finishes up in Lincoln where Nebraska attempts to avenge a 2017 loss to Northern Illinois that made Mike Riley's departure inevitable. Granted a lot of the shine of this night game was taken away last Saturday, when Colorado completed a fourth quarter comeback for the second straight year, to complete the series sweep of the Huskers. It revealed a lot of the problems Nebraska had last year when facing any offense better than Michigan State/Bethune-Cookman (and I'm not sure which one was worse). After shutting the Buffs down for nearly 3 quarters (0 points and 134 total yards), the Huskers defense imploded and surrendered 34 points and 323 yards over the final 16 minutes plus overtime. They did make it abundantly clear that Maurice Washington is playing, absent a jail sentence without work release. Washington is clearly the best toy Adrian Martinez has to work with, with 77 rushing yards on 5.1 ypc and 4 receptions for 118 yards. JD Spielman also showed up, but a couple more guys need to step up for this offense to work at max capacity. Georgia Tech transfer Dedrick Mills has been horrible in both games. Freshman Wan'Dale Robinson has been very good, and I hate to ask for more than 6 receptions for a freshman through his first two games, but he's got the talent to deliver. New Northern Illinois coach Thomas Hammock declared Cal transfer Ross Bowers the starter over returning starter Marcus Childers, who was MAC Freshman of the Year in 2017, and won a MAC title last year. Tough crowd. He hasn't done much to warrant winning the job thus far, but he's working behind an offensive line that returned three starters, but they two they lost were both NFL Draftees. Yes, Utah has a fantastic defense, but this line isn't doing anything right now, ranking in the bottom ten of the FBS both in power run blocking and sack rate. There's a chance for the Nebraska front to regain some confidence. So how has Northern Illinois won one game, and gave #13 Utah everything they wanted on the road? A defense that is just as feisty as ever. Problem is Nebraska's weakness is too many big negative plays. They are #127 in the FBS in sack rate allowed, which is part on the line, and part on Martinez' propensity to hold the ball too long. Northern Illinois plays sound, low pressure defense. They aren't built to attack Martinez, and the Husker offense is too good to sit back and trust your stuff, when you still have MAC talent.

NEBRASKA 30, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#19 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) at Iowa State (1-0)

4:00 - Ames, IA - FS1

Cross another destination off the list, as ESPN Gameday makes its first trip to Iowa State. The Power Five list of non-hosts is down to just 10, four of which are in the Big Ten, being Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, and Rutgers; to go with Cal, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest. If you remembered Indiana hosted in 2017, then bully for you. I was high on Iowa State preseason, thought they could be the second best team in the Big XII, but the opener did not provide much confidence. Northern Iowa gives the in state FBS schools trouble, but the Cyclones needed a 17 play drive to kick a field goal just to send the game to overtime, before pulling it out. Iowa State did outgain the Panthers 463-262, but the lone turnover of the game belonged to them, and Northern Iowa returned it for a touchdown. The Hawkeyes' offense is off to a great start, which should be no surprise. September Iowa is annually really good ever since Ferentz arrived. The good news is that Nate Stanley is getting help from his ground game, which had the rare down year in 2018. Through 2 games, the Hawkeyes are fourth in the Big Ten at 5.1 ypc, and at some point will get All-Big Ten tackle Alaric Jackson back to bolster the line. This will be easily their biggest test until they go to Ann Arbor, as the Cyclones had the best Big XII defense (by default SOMEONE had to, but they were #28 nationally in S&P+) a year ago, and the opener against Northern Iowa, where the defense kept the Panthers out of the end zone until overtime. The Hawkeyes will need a different plan than last year, when they just killed the Cyclones with their tight ends, a combined 10 receptions. Now nobody expected Iowa to immediately replace two 1st Round NFL Draft tight ends, but to only have 3 receptions from the position is a little concerning as to just how quickly the new guys are getting up to speed. It's Tight End U, I don't doubt it gets sorted out at some point, but it would take a drastic leap to be the main concern of Iowa State's defense right now. Even still, my head is leaning Iowa with Stanley and the running game working so well, but my heart says not to bet against the home team, in an in state rivalry game, with Gameday making its debut appearance at the school

IOWA STATE 24, IOWA 23

LetsGoPeay · « **Reply #1 on:** September 11, 2019, 11:47:45 AM »

Quote from: ELA on September 10, 2019, 03:35:28 PM

If the Hoosier offense struggles early, will Indiana fans quickly forget how much they wanted Penix to take the job away from Ramsey less than 365 days ago?

Not a chance. Penix's arm strength and athleticism completely change the offense. Teams can't sit on the short and immediate stuff and then stuff the run like they did with Ramsey. If you watched last week's game the difference in arm strength and velocity was dramatic. Penix has a gun and forces the secondary to play the deep routes.
The problem with the run game so far has been the line not opening holes for Scott and Scott seems to have regressed a bit. He looks slower to hit the holes (when they're there) and slow of foot. Ronnie Walker and Cole Gest have actually been better. They are better catching out of the backfield too. The line has pass blocked very well so far.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 11, 2019, 05:20:07 PM »

All noon kicks, plus Nebraska-NIU in

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #3 on:** September 12, 2019, 12:33:45 PM »

Is Maryland really averaging more PPG than their basketball team did?

Heard that on the radio this morning.

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** September 13, 2019, 04:47:06 PM »

All picks in

MaximumSam · « **Reply #5 on:** September 13, 2019, 04:59:37 PM »

Penix is supposedly a gametime decision for Indiana with some sort of unspecified injury

LetsGoPeay · « **Reply #6 on:** September 13, 2019, 05:40:33 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 13, 2019, 04:59:37 PM

Penix is supposedly a gametime decision for Indiana with some sort of unspecified injury

Yep. It’s some sort of shoulder thing. Supposedly it’s not a long term issue. But this is IU football. He’s done for the season.

SFBadger96 · « **Reply #7 on:** September 13, 2019, 05:51:14 PM »

Bold pick on ISU.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #8 on:** September 13, 2019, 06:13:05 PM »

Ramsey played really well against OSU last year, in Columbus. They'll be alright.

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Topic: ELA September 14 Breakdown

ELA

ELA September 14 Breakdown

LetsGoPeay

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Brutus Buckeye

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MaximumSam

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