Maryland Terrapins (1-2, 3-3) at #5 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0, 6-0)
NOON - Madison, WI - FOX
Maryland is the most perplexing team in the conference, but at this point they seem to be settling on the side of distrust. Down to an ineffective 3rd string QB, you'd expect struggles from the offense, but what is really concerning is how poor the defense has played, bringing up the rear of the conference in scoring defense, total defense and passing defense. Even their run defense at a stellar 10th in the Big Ten, has surrendered 10 touchdowns on the ground, most in the conference, and at 3.3 per game, a full rushing TD per game more than next most, being Indiana and Illinois at 2.3. If you are wondering if offensive ineptitude is contributing to this, their S&P+ jumps them over Illinois, but nobody else. But Wisconsin has seen this all year. They haven't played a good team yet, and they've struggled to win easily, typically due to slow starts. However last weekend they flipped the script and jumped to a 14-0 lead over Purdue in the first 9 minutes, and only scored 3 more the rest of the game, including none in the second half. Bucky hasn't struggled to move the ball, they've struggled to limit mistakes. You would think against a Terrapin defense that hasn't slowed anybody down on the ground the last few weeks, there is no reason to do anything risky. As is the case every week, Maryland has some big time weapons, and needs to rely on splash plays. That recipe can work against teams like Minnesota that aren't going to score enough, but it's tough to see them doing that against Wisconsin. Ty Johnson will hit a home run, and D.J. Moore is really coming on right now, but that'll be about it, and getting slaughtered in time of possession will really wear down an already struggling Maryland defense.
WISCONSIN 38, MARYLAND 17
Iowa Hawkeyes (1-2, 4-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-2, 3-3)
NOON - Evanston, IL - espn2
I always enjoy the three way Wisconsin-Iowa-Minnesota rivalry games, but aside from that, this game might annually be my favorite Big Ten West matchup. It's two teams that are going to play a style I love to watch. Iowa was able to write some offensive struggles off to playing Penn State and Michigan State, two of the best defenses in the conference. But after scoring only two offensive touchdowns in three quarters against a miserable Illinois team, and clinging to a 24-16 lead, legitimate concerns were creeping in. The Hawkeyes squashed those by outscoring the Illini 21-0 in the 4th quarter. But even still, they took advantage of a short field for one score, and for the game, were outgained by a team that probably isn't going to win a Big Ten game this year. Northwestern's offense has been a legitimate mess all year, but they seemed to turn a corner against an admittedly awful Maryland defense last week. Clayton Thorson's 293 yards and 62.5 raw QBR were his best in a Big Ten game since Purdue last year. Granted that Maryland secondary is so bad that the adjusted QBR drops below his very shaky game against Wisconsin earlier. More importantly, Justin Jackson had 171 yards on 6.1 ypc after TOTALLING 91 yards on 3.6 ypc in Northwestern's 0-2 Big Ten start. You'd think Iowa would be a much stiffer test, but the Hawkeyes' run defense has been subpar by their standards, 10th in the Big Ten at 4.8 ypc, actually one spot BELOW Maryland there. That's where it has to start for Iowa's defense. Clayton Thorson threw the ball 49 times last week, second most in his career, and six times more than he ever had in a win. That's not their recipe, but if Jackson is running wild, and the play action is working, Northwestern will continue to drink from that well. Nathan Stanley is going to get his splash plays, but when Iowa is tough is when he's accurate on the short throws. He was 12-26 (46%) when Iowa was struggling to put Illinois away, but completed 5 of his final 6 passes and Iowa scored touchdowns on 3 of 4 drives. He's not throwing picks, but he's not hitting his guys enough either. It may not matter though, because when Akrum Wadley sees purple, his eyes light up and he finds paydirt. In 2014 he had 106 of his 181 rushing yards and his lone touchdown against the Wildcats, along with his season long run. In 2015 he had his season high 204 rushing yards, and 4 of the 7 rushing touchdowns he had on the year. Even last year, when they held him to his lowest per carry output of the year, he scored twice. In his three previous seasons, he's scored 18 rushing touchdowns, and SEVEN have come against Northwestern, plus his season high outputs in 2 of the 3 games.
IOWA 27, NORTHWESTERN 20
Purdue Boilermakers (1-2, 3-3) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-2, 2-4)
NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN
Purdue's defense played the ultimate bend but don't break in Madison last weekend, and forced enough mistakes for the Purdue offense to have a shot, and they just couldn't capitalize on them. Not sure if David Blough re-aggravated his injury, but after talking all week about continuing to rotate quarterbacks, Jeff Brohm played Elijah Sindelar nearly exclusively on Saturday, and frankly I don't get it. Blough is going to throw picks, he's proven that, and it really hasn't improved with experience. If Purdue had more talent around him, I could seeing playing Sindelar, the safer bet. But the Boilers don't. They haven't even gone through a full offseason of rebuilding yet, and the "safe" pick simply isn't going to get it done. They need to ride the higher highs and lower lows of Blough in my opinion. Any hopes of ending their bowl drought likely depending on picking up this win, even on the road, against a team that might finally have some confidence. The Scarlet Knight finally snapped their 16 game conference losing streak, a losing streak where they were only within single digits three times, yet lost by over 30 eight times. Rutgers still can't pass on anybody, they were 6-12 for 102 yards, even with a pair of 35 yard pass plays, but they finally got their run game going. They finished last week with 274 yards on the ground, with five players going for 25 yards or more, all with 4.3 ypc or more. Purdue is dead last in the conference in run defense, surrendering 220.3 yards per game., but their 4.6 ypc average is far more respectable. The question is why are teams running the ball 50 times per game on them? Do they see something? Is it a product of opposition? Whatever the case, it's likely that number won't shrink against Rutgers, absent Purdue taking early command. Purdue is going to load the box, and dare Rutgers to throw. That's probably the only time we'll say that all year about Purdue, who is surrendering nearly 8 yards per play through the air, 3rd worst in the conference. But they've been opportunistic, swiping 4 interceptions, at a conference leading 1 per 18.5 pass attempt rate. The longer Rutgers sticks around, the more dangerous this gets. If Purdue can tack on a couple of scores early, and force Rutgers to get away from their run game, they should breeze, but if they can't, this is still a game where the talent gap isn't yet wide enough that Rutgers couldn't pull the upset.
PURDUE 30, RUTGERS 17
Indiana Hoosiers (0-3, 3-3) at #18 Michigan State Spartans (3-0, 5-1)
3:30 - East Lansing, MI - ABC
After three night games and a bye week over the past five weeks, just having a Saturday afternoon Michigan State game feels like an anomaly. What isn't an anomaly is Indiana facing a ranked opponent, their 4th in 4 games. Throw in their non-conference game against a suddenly impressive 5-1 Virginia team, and it's tough to argue Indiana hasn't had the toughest Big Ten slate. The back half is easier, but still includes a visit from Wisconsin, so at some point the Hoosiers need to pull an upset, or their margin for error against Illinois, or trips to College Park, Champaign or West Lafayette if they want to get to a bowl. Michigan State's defense is arguably playing as well as it has since 2013, but the back end still creates cause for concern, and in a rarity for this year, they are facing a team that can exploit it. Bowling Green and Michigan have no quarterback; Western Michigan's quarterback didn't have the deep throw to stretch them; and Minnesota didn't figure out who their quarterback should be until it was too late. Brandom Wimbush torched the Spartans, but they did hold Nathan Stanley in check, namely because their run defense was so dominant, they weren't forced to overcommit their linebackers. But they clearly have not faced a receiver as good as Simmie Cobbs. Cobbs put on an absolute show in the opener against Ohio State, but has been uneven since then while going through the ups and downs with freshman quarterback Peyton Ramsey, who clearly became THE guy last week against Michigan. Ramsey got absolutely battered in that game, but still hung around, and brought the Hoosiers back from a late 10 point defecit to force overtime. What we are slowly seeing out of Ramsey is a development in his ability to read his progressions. Michigan overcommitted on Cobbs, so instead he found Luke Timian 7 times for 95 yards and Mike Majette 5 times for 49 yards, both career highs. The Spartans, after struggling all year to get sufficient run blocking may have figured something out last weekend, running toss sweep after toss sweep as L.J. Scott piled up a career high 194 rushing and 220 offensive yards. Was that something the Spartans figured they can do well, or was it a major defensive deficiency for Minnesota? With film on it now, we may figure that out quickly. Brian Lewerke is just happy to see that the weather forecast Saturday in East Lansing is 70 and sunny. He was completing 63% of his passes, averaging 241 yards per game, and totaling 8 touchdowns to 2 interceptions through 4 games. In a pair of rain soaked games the past 2 weeks, he had 107 ypg on 50% completions with a touchdown (on a screen pass) and a pick. Probably could have had a couple more picks against Minnesota if not for defenders struggling to catch a wet ball. Michigan State needs him to prove that the last two weeks were a product of the weather, and have him pick up where he left off in September, because this is the best offense they've faced since Notre Dame.
MICHIGAN STATE 28, INDIANA 17
Illinois Fighting Illini (0-3, 2-4) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-3, 3-3)
3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN
While this is a battle of 0-3 cellar dwellers, the two fan bases probably could not feel more different about the state of their programs. Illinois is only in Year 2 of Lovie, but it already feels like it's a failed experiment, and does the school have the money to pay ANOTHER revenue sport coach not to coach there? Losing at home to Rutgers, to snap the Scarlet Knights' 16 game conference losing streak likely means Illinois is headed for a winless Big Ten campaign, because wins don't come any easier than that. If that happens, it will be Illinois' FIFTH winless Big Ten season since 1997. No other conference team has had more than 1 in that time frame. You have to go back to 1995 to find a school that's done it twice (Indiana in 1995 and 2011). The Illini have only finished over .500 in conference play twice since 1993, their 2001 Sugar Bowl year, and the fluky 9-4 Rose Bowl team in 2007. So maybe this is just the program Illinois is, and there's no point in paying Lovie to go away, just to bring in somebody else to do the same thing. Minnesota's loss to Maryland's 3rd string quarterback, making his first career start, in the New Brickhouse, is unforgivable. And they looked bad for three quarters against Michigan State. But it seems like when they switched from Conor Rhoda to Demry Croft, they figured something out. Croft has the wheels to keep defenses honest, and while he looks raw, he also looks like for the first time in a while, the Gophers have a guy under center who is more than a game manager. After Minnesota's final drive of the third quarter ended with a punt, and a 23-6 deficit, with both scores coming off Michigan State turnovers where Minnesota only kicked field goals after failing to pick up a single first down, something clicked. Over the final three drives (all of which were touchdowns), Croft was 8-13 for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns plus 6 carries for 27 yards. He was a sophomore getting his first extended experience, and at times he looked it. He needs to get out of trouble sooner, but I think it's easier to teach a guy when to bail than to teach a guy to stand in there and be patient. Fortunately he gets a glorified scrimmage this week to try and take another step forward before he gets a pair of tough tests with trips to Iowa City and Ann Arbor. This is a must win for the Gophers' bowl hopes, because it's going to be tough enough to get 2 wins against a closing schedule of @Iowa, @Michigan, Nebraska, @Northwestern, Wisconsin. Three is nearly impossible.
MINNESOTA 33, ILLINOIS 17
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#19 Michigan Wolverines (2-1, 5-1) at #2 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0, 6-0)
7:30 - State College, PA - ABC
It's jihad week in Happy Valley. As I pointed out in the Game Week thread, this series has produced a number of classics, but the vast majority have gone the Wolverines' way. A not so memorable game took place last year when a 2-1 Penn State team came in off a loss to Pitt, and a near loss to Temple, and got absolutely trucked, 49-10, in a game that could have been much, much worse. Trace McSorley had a career worst 34.4 QBR, and Saquon Barkley had what was at that point a career low in rushing yards, with 59. That was the game that convinced everyone that James Franklin was only a recruiter, and that his time in Happy Valley was drawing to an end. But to the surprise of everyone, it flipped the other way. Since that humiliating defeat in the Big House, the Nittany Lions are 15-1, with the lone loss being a 3 point loss to USC in the Rose Bowl. They've tallied wins over the schools that had supplanted them in the conference pecking order, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin. Now it's time to go after the one that got this whole thing started. Everyone talks about Michigan's defense, with good reason. Maybe it's because all attention to Penn State is to Saquon Barkley's Heisman candidacy, but for whatever reason, the Nittany Lion defense is vastly underappreciated. They aren't the smothering front that Michigan is, but they aren't letting anyone score, and their creating turnovers at a greater rate than anyone but Michigan State (who admittedly piled up a lot in one game). Michigan just decided to quit even trying to pass the ball last week, when they totalled only 58 yards through the air and O'Korn missed plenty of downfield targets, without the weather as an excuse. Indiana's defense is better than your typical Indiana defense, but Trace McSorley threw for 315 yards on them, and J.T. Barrett threw for 304...in a performance that had people questioning what was wrong with him. If Michigan can't loosen up the Penn State defense, they can forget just relying on the ground game, like they were able to do last week. The Michigan defense will do all it can to keep them in the game, but unlike the Michigan State game, where the Spartans couldn't take advantage of opportunity after opportunity to put the game away earlier due to Michigan's offensive ineptitude, the Penn State offense will eventually cash those short field in. This will be another referendum on Jim Harbaugh, and probably unfairly, the Wolverines are going to walk into an absolute beehive on Saturday night, without a quarterback to fight them out of it.
PENN STATE 30, MICHIGAN 14
