Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Also, I'll bet AAA $100 that Texas has a better record than 2-4 after 10/9.

Clemson   3   0   1.000   5   0   1.000      North Carolina   5   0   1.000   6   0   1.000
Florida State   3   1   .750   4   2   .667      Pitt   1   0   1.000   5   0   1.000
Louisville   1   2   .333   2   4   .333      Miami   1   0   1.000   4   1   .800
Wake Forest   1   3   .250   3   3   .500      Virginia   2   2   .500   4   2   .667
Boston College   0   1   .000   4   1   .800      Georgia Tech   1   3   .250   3   3   .500
NC State   0   1   .000   3   2   .600      Virginia Tech   0   1   .000   4   1   .800
Syracuse   0   2   .000   2   4   .333      Duke   0   2   .000   3   3   .500
                                          
Oklahoma   3   0   1.000   6   0   1.000                        
TCU   2   0   1.000   5   0   1.000                        
Iowa State   2   0   1.000   4   1   .800                        
Oklahoma State   2   0   1.000   4   1   .800                        
Texas Tech   1   2   .333   4   2   .667                        
Texas   1   2   .333   2   4   .333                        
West Virginia   1   2   .333   2   4   .333                        
Baylor   1   3   .250   3   3   .500                        
Kansas State   0   2   .000   2   3   .400                        
Kansas   0   2   .000   1   4   .200                        
                                          
Ohio State   3   0   1.000   6   0   1.000      Northwestern   2   0   1.000   4   1   .800
Maryland   2   1   .667   5   1   .833      Wisconsin   2   1   .667   4   1   .800
Michigan   2   1   .667   5   1   .833      Minnesota   1   1   .500   3   2   .600
Penn State   2   1   .667   4   2   .667      Nebraska   2   2   .500   4   3   .571
Indiana   1   1   .500   4   1   .800      Purdue   1   1   .500   2   3   .400
Michigan State   1   2   .333   3   3   .500      Iowa   1   2   .333   4   2   .667
Rutgers   0   3   .000   3   3   .500      Illinois   0   4   .000   2   5   .286
                                          
Oregon   2   0   1.000   4   1   .800      Utah   2   0   1.000   4   1   .800
Oregon State   2   1   .667   5   1   .833      USC   4   1   .800   5   1   .833
Washington   1   1   .500   3   2   .600      Arizona State   2   1   .667   4   2   .667
Stanford   1   3   .250   3   3   .500      UCLA   2   1   .667   3   3   .500
Washington St.   1   3   .250   3   3   .500      Colorado   0   2   .000   2   3   .400
California   0   2   .000   2   3   .400      Arizona   0   2   .000   1   4   .200
                                          
Florida   3   1   .750   5   1   .833      Alabama   3   0   1.000   6   0   1.000
Kentucky   3   1   .750   5   1   .833      Auburn   2   0   1.000   6   0   1.000
Georgia   3   1   .750   4   2   .667      Texas A&M   2   1   .667   5   1   .833
Missouri   1   1   .500   3   3   .500      Ole Miss   1   1   .500   4   1   .800
Tennessee   1   2   .333   3   3   .500      Mississippi St.   1   1   .500   3   2   .600
Vanderbilt   0   2   .000   3   3   .500      Arkansas   0   3   .000   3   3   .500
South Carolina   0   3   .000   1   5   .167      LSU   0   3   .000   3   3   .500
                                          
Memphis   2   0   1.000   6   0   1.000                        
Tulane   2   0   1.000   3   3   .500                        
Cincinnati   1   0   1.000   4   1   .800                        
South Florida   1   0   1.000   2   3   .400                        
Central Florida   1   1   .500   4   1   .800                        
East Carolina   1   1   .500   4   2   .667                        
Tulsa   1   1   .500   4   2   .667                        
SMU   1   1   .500   3   3   .500                        
Houston   1   2   .333   2   4   .333                        
Temple   0   2   .000   2   4   .333                        
Navy   0   3   .000   2   3   .400                        
                                          
W. Kentucky   1   0   1.000   2   3   .400      UAB   2   0   1.000   5   1   .833
M. Tennessee   2   1   .667   3   3   .500      Southern Miss   2   0   1.000   3   3   .500
FIU   1   1   .500   3   3   .500      UTEP   1   1   .500   5   1   .833
Florida Atlantic   1   1   .500   3   3   .500      North Texas   1   1   .500   3   2   .600
Old Dominion   1   1   .500   2   4   .333      UTSA   1   1   .500   3   3   .500
Charlotte   0   2   .000   3   3   .500      Louisiana Tech   0   1   .000   2   3   .400
Marshall   0   2   .000   1   5   .167      Rice   0   1   .000   2   3   .400
                                          
Buffalo   2   0   1.000   5   1   .833      E. Michigan   2   0   1.000   5   1   .833
Bowling Green   2   0   1.000   3   3   .500      Toledo   2   0   1.000   5   1   .833
Ohio   1   1   .500   3   2   .600      C. Michigan   2   0   1.000   3   3   .500
Miami(Ohio)   0   2   .000   2   4   .333      W. Michigan   1   1   .500   3   3   .500
Akron   0   2   .000   1   5   .167      Ball State   0   2   .000   1   5   .167
Kent State   0   2   .000   1   5   .167      Northern Illinois   0   2   .000   1   5   .167
                                          
Air Force   3   0   1.000   5   1   .833      Hawaii   2   0   1.000   4   2   .667
Colorado State   1   0   1.000   2   3   .400      San Diego State   1   0   1.000   5   0   1.000
Boise State   1   1   .500   1   5   .167      Nevada   1   0   1.000   3   2   .600
Wyoming   0   1   .000   4   1   .800      Fresno State   1   1   .500   4   2   .667
New Mexico   0   2   .000   2   4   .333      UNLV   0   1   .000   1   4   .200
Utah State   0   2   .000   1   4   .200      San Jose State   0   2   .000   2   4   .333
                                          
C. Carolina   2   0   1.000   5   1   .833      Texas State   1   0   1.000   3   2   .600
Appalachian St.   1   0   1.000   4   1   .800      UL Lafayette   1   1   .500   4   1   .800
Ga. Southern   2   1   .667   3   3   .500      Arkansas State   1   1   .500   2   4   .333
Troy   1   1   .500   4   2   .667      South Alabama   0   2   .000   3   2   .600
Georgia State   1   1   .500   1   5   .167      UL Monroe   0   3   .000   1   4   .200
                                          
BYU   5   1   .833                                 
Army   4   1   .800                                 
Liberty   4   2   .667                                 
Notre Dame   3   3   .500                                 
Connecticut   2   5   .286                                 
NM State   1   6   .143                                 
Massachusetts   0   6   .000                                 

It's tough to say that the #3 team is overrated unless there are good reasons to argue that the #1 and #2 teams are overrated, and I don't see that.

Texas is overrated of course.  Struggling helmet teams usually are, because, surely, this must be the year that they return to greatness.  I'd say that Texas gets more of that treatment than most, though, because they are Texas.

If you don't believe that they're Texas, just ask 'em!

Notre Dame would like a word

Yes.  Good point.
It would be interesting to compare rankings with results over the last 30-40 years.
We need Ftbobs for this.

Some folks have studied it. The AP Top-25 tends to be a pretty good predictor. Better than a lot of other methods.

Of course, pretty good is relative. Most people are wrong on more than a few things. The sport is relatively static. If 60 percent of your preseason poll is right-ish, 40 percent is wrong. Then you have a case where a team is like preseason top-5 and finishes top-12. If they won their bowl, they're basically where they were projected.

There used to be site where you could find net movement across a few years. Looking at it, USC has started ranked 10 times in 11 years since Carroll left, finished ranked higher three times. Granted, just by starting ranked at all, you have a much better chance of finishing ranked worse. Since Mack left, Texas was ranked in four preseason polls across seven years. They finished worse three times, better once, but only one of the drops was that notable (preseason No. 10 went 8-5 and finished No. 25.

And in the end, rankings exist because fans derive some kind of ... maybe not joy, but something out of them. Interest, I guess.

The college hoops ones always vastly overrate the tournament.  Every single MSU team that disappointed based on preseason ranking is due to being overrated based on an overachieving tourney run the prior year.  Cool, you went 2 rounds farther than you were supposed to, on one weekend, thanks to pulling one upset, and getting to face an 11 seed that did the same.  Seems like a logical thing to base your entire season off of.

The college hoops ones always vastly overrate the tournament.  Every single MSU team that disappointed based on preseason ranking is due to being overrated based on an overachieving tourney run the prior year.  Cool, you went 2 rounds farther than you were supposed to, on one weekend, thanks to pulling one upset, and getting to face an 11 seed that did the same.  Seems like a logical thing to base your entire season off of.

So this is interesting to me. There's definitely the sense that a lot is based on the year prior, but I think there's a bit more to it. Namely, whenever that happens, it's always a bunch of pretty decent players coming back. Like, you have a team returning Ager, Davis and Paul from a top-15 team (that went to the FF as a 5 seed), that team should be good. 

CBB is more interesting because they postseason doesn't actually factor into the final AP poll. So if you filter out those few weekends when deciding achievement or failure. 

I broke down the numbers since the three Final Fours. Looking at spots dropped. There are some weird cases. Like, is No. 1 to No. 9 a big disappointment? Is No. 12 overrated if that team finishes unranked? In total, four teams went top-10 to out. Other top-10s included a 2 to 13, 8 to 18, 2 to 11 and 1 to nine. I'll focus on the first four, and if you want more data on the others, I can supply that after a weekend trip. 

2010-11: No. 2 to unranked
Of another Final Four with a No. 13 team. Lost Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen. Kept Lucas, Summers, Draymond, Lucious and Roe and added Appling into the mix. Another one that doesn't make much sense. All those guys were upperclassmen too. 

2003-04: No. 3 to unranked
Coming off an Elite 8. Middling actual season the year prior, but returned everyone. Were actually fine in conference, but went 5-6 in non-conference against a real hard schedule with some bad losses. 

2005-06: No. 4 to unranked
This was a special one. Came off a Final Four as a 5 seed with a No. 15 finish. Lost half the top six, but did have their Big 3 back and Drew Neitzel, no slouch, on the come up. No. 4 was ambitious, but they absolutely underplayed their ability. 

2002-03: No. 9 to unranked. 
Came off a first-round loss. Lost top minutes guy, but not much else at the top. Looks like a case of everyone back and trusting Izzo.

Izzo's resume is so odd. Good, but odd. 

Auburn at 6-0 and Georgia at 4-2? Auburn will be 3-3 with losses to Penn State, LSU and Georgia. Georgia, in effect, has a two game schedule; Clemson and Florida. At worst Georgia will be 5-1 at this point.

Not my picks, just plugging the FPI/SP+ numbers into a one game simulation