I'm not sure the actual standings matter. There are two SEC teams, and two non-SEC teams. The better non SEC team is going to play the worse SEC team, and vice versa.
I would be shocked if it's anything other than Alabama-Cincinnati, and Michigan-Georgia.
I think the team that kind of gets screwed in that is Michigan, because they are unjustly prevented from playing Cincinnati, who I think is the fourth best team of that group, even if the committee thinks they are the best team, which I think they have a valid claim to