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Topic: Chris Holtmann

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MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #140 on: January 29, 2024, 12:09:01 PM »

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And that "buyout" is far more financially material to me than anything OSU is going to have to pay. 


bayareabadger

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #141 on: January 29, 2024, 12:23:17 PM »
I think about it more like a marriage. You go into marriage thinking you're going to be happy. Everyone does. But if the divorce rate (and I know this is a BS stat) is 50%, it seems that maybe a lot of people aren't all that great at making the decision.

But if it's just not right, at some point you realize that. At that point you may not know whether the next person will be Mr/Mrs Right, but you know the one you're married to is Mr/Mrs Wrong, and you need to get out of it.

Thinking you need to hang on to the one you're with, hoping for some magical improvement, is just a recipe for disappointment.

I think parts of this are right, though I think the last part is not. 

I think this dynamic can be about vibe and energy. If fans simply stop caring, you can be modestly successful, and they still can you. There's also an internal thing. If an AD believes in the coach and process, you might wring out an extra chance. if that dynamic is fraught, or the AD just stops believing, it's extra over. And that blends with the practicalities of records and such. 

But I do think the idea of "magical improvement" kind of short sells it. Coaches all the time have dramatic shifts in fortunes. Processes work, things come together, etc.

But it's hard to predict, and resets of vibes are refreshing (probably to a degree like divorce).

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #142 on: January 29, 2024, 12:57:37 PM »
I think parts of this are right, though I think the last part is not.

I think this dynamic can be about vibe and energy. If fans simply stop caring, you can be modestly successful, and they still can you. There's also an internal thing. If an AD believes in the coach and process, you might wring out an extra chance. if that dynamic is fraught, or the AD just stops believing, it's extra over. And that blends with the practicalities of records and such.

But I do think the idea of "magical improvement" kind of short sells it. Coaches all the time have dramatic shifts in fortunes. Processes work, things come together, etc.

But it's hard to predict, and resets of vibes are refreshing (probably to a degree like divorce).
Again, all analogies are prone to being picked apart if you try hard enough.

But yes, there are instances where both parties are unhappy but aligned, and choose to try to work it out.

I'll return to the Matt Painter example. Painter had two awful years, missing the tournament both years and finishing last in the conference the second. But everyone knows Painter is a Boilermaker to his core--he wanted to work it out. The AD knew that Painter had shown success and was hired a bit young but was very motivated--the AD wanted to work it out. Whether they would successfully get there was unknown, but both parties were aligned and thought it was worth at least continuing.

You can be unhappy but still feel there's something worth salvaging.

In this case Holtmann has no ties to OSU (unlike Painter with Purdue). The AD that hired him is on his way out, so the new AD has no ties to Holtmann. The players he recruited appear to have given up on the program at least this season. The fans have become increasingly unsupportive. Unlike Painter, he can't point to any real success in the program except his first year with Matta's guys. It's been getting progressively worse year over year.

I don't get the sense that there's anything worth salvaging.

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #143 on: January 29, 2024, 05:44:12 PM »

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I don't get the sense that there's anything worth salvaging.
This is fairly wild for a team where the vast bulk of minutes are going to freshmen and sophomores. Get old, stay old remains the college basketball mantra.


I do wonder what convos the two AD's and Holtmann have had. I don't really have a sense of it but from Gene's comments he was pretty steadfast in playing younger guys. Can't say play the younger guys then be surprised when they look young.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #144 on: January 30, 2024, 09:57:07 AM »
This is fairly wild for a team where the vast bulk of minutes are going to freshmen and sophomores. Get old, stay old remains the college basketball mantra.
We seem to be talking past each other. You have said repeatedly (for years, not just this season) that they are young.

 @betarhoalphadelta and I have pointed out repeatedly that a  youthful roster isn't a legitimate excuse for a coach when:
  • He is in his seventh year, and
  • Last season was comically awful, and
  • The coach has never had any significant success. 

Do you have an answer for that, or are we just supposed to wait indefinitely while the coach in question is paid Millions per year to try to figure out how to construct a roster?

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #145 on: January 30, 2024, 10:28:53 AM »
We seem to be talking past each other. You have said repeatedly (for years, not just this season) that they are young.

 @betarhoalphadelta and I have pointed out repeatedly that a  youthful roster isn't a legitimate excuse for a coach when:
  • He is in his seventh year, and
  • Last season was comically awful, and
  • The coach has never had any significant success.

Do you have an answer for that, or are we just supposed to wait indefinitely while the coach in question is paid Millions per year to try to figure out how to construct a roster?
Well, one, no I haven't said for years that they are young. They weren't young in 2018, they weren't young in 2020-22. This team and the the 2019 team are probably the youngest teams Holtmann has had. He does better with veteran teams. That's not controversial, because all coaches do better with veteran teams. So when someone says hey look they aren't great this year and ignore that, they aren't actually looking at the team.

Now, last season did suck, and I agree he has no won the conference or made runs in March. Those are pretty objective facts. The difference we are having is in the evaluation. Is there something worth saving there or not? Canning means we probably have a crappy year next season as opposed to a good one. We are giving up something real and tangible. I would want to feel real confident in the next coach to just give up on the program like that, and the idea that we just hire and fire until we get it right is not attractive to me. If you fire Holtmann and the program doesn't improve, you have done something stupid. No debate there.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #146 on: January 30, 2024, 10:50:41 AM »
Well, one, no I haven't said for years that they are young. They weren't young in 2018, they weren't young in 2020-22. This team and the the 2019 team are probably the youngest teams Holtmann has had. He does better with veteran teams. That's not controversial, because all coaches do better with veteran teams. So when someone says hey look they aren't great this year and ignore that, they aren't actually looking at the team.
Holtmann's defenders generally and you specifically always have an excuse:
  • Young team.
  • No PG.
  • Backcourt needs talent/experience.
  • Front court needs talent/experience.
  • Whatever.
In year seven, with no positive trajectory and no significant success I'm way past caring what the excuse is.
Now, last season did suck, and I agree he has no won the conference or made runs in March. Those are pretty objective facts. The difference we are having is in the evaluation. Is there something worth saving there or not? Canning means we probably have a crappy year next season as opposed to a good one. We are giving up something real and tangible. I would want to feel real confident in the next coach to just give up on the program like that, and the idea that we just hire and fire until we get it right is not attractive to me. If you fire Holtmann and the program doesn't improve, you have done something stupid. No debate there.
I just disagree completely.

If you fire an unsuccessful coach and end up with another unsuccessful coach, you try again until you figure it out or simply stumble into a successful coach.

Rregardless of whether or not Smith/Bjork get it right this time, the first step towards getting a successful coach for tOSU is to get rid of the unsuccessful one currently tying up the position.

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #147 on: January 30, 2024, 10:55:41 AM »

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I just disagree completely.

If you fire an unsuccessful coach and end up with another unsuccessful coach, you try again until you figure it out or simply stumble into a successful coach.
It's not a matter of disagreement, it's a fact. If the program gets worse based on firing the coach and hiring a new coach, it was a bad decision.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #148 on: January 30, 2024, 11:14:54 AM »
It's not a matter of disagreement, it's a fact. If the program gets worse based on firing the coach and hiring a new coach, it was a bad decision.
Not a fact and I disagree with this opinion. 

Even if the immediate result is not successful, it still gets you one step closer to a successful coach. 

Besides, replacing one unsuccessful coach with another one is a net zero anyway so you aren't materially worse off even if the second coach is even worse than the first.

The example that @betarhoalphadelta gave of the Hope->Hazell transition is on point. Holtmann is our Hope, an unsuccessful coach. Even if his replacement ends up being our Hazell (arguably worst in program history) it still wasn't a bad decision to fire the unsuccessful Hope/Holtmann because the first step toward a successful coach is to get rid of the unsuccessful coach.

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #149 on: January 30, 2024, 11:24:19 AM »
Not a fact and I disagree with this opinion.

Even if the immediate result is not successful, it still gets you one step closer to a successful coach.

Besides, replacing one unsuccessful coach with another one is a net zero anyway so you aren't materially worse off even if the second coach is even worse than the first.

The example that @betarhoalphadelta gave of the Hope->Hazell transition is on point. Holtmann is our Hope, an unsuccessful coach. Even if his replacement ends up being our Hazell (arguably worst in program history) it still wasn't a bad decision to fire the unsuccessful Hope/Holtmann because the first step toward a successful coach is to get rid of the unsuccessful coach.
Well, this brings up Matrix levels of discourse. "What is real?" No, getting worse as a program when you fire the coach means you made a bad decision and instead of owning it, you just make excuses. Of course firing Hope and hiring Hazell was a bad decision. That's the best things about sports - you can just check and know whether it was good or bad. My harping is that you assume the next coach will be better and we can just hire and fire until we get it right. That isn't guaranteed - you can hire and fire yourself into becoming Louisville too.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #150 on: January 30, 2024, 11:31:23 AM »
Well, this brings up Matrix levels of discourse. "What is real?" No, getting worse as a program when you fire the coach means you made a bad decision and instead of owning it, you just make excuses. Of course firing Hope and hiring Hazell was a bad decision. That's the best things about sports - you can just check and know whether it was good or bad. My harping is that you assume the next coach will be better and we can just hire and fire until we get it right. That isn't guaranteed - you can hire and fire yourself into becoming Louisville too.
If you fire Holtmann and things get worse then yes, a mistake was made but you are combining the fire and hire decisions and that is not, IMHO, appropriate. 

When Purdue fired Hope they hired Hazell and things got worse so yes, a mistake was made. That mistake was hiring Hazell.

If tOSU fires Holtmann that decision stands on it's own. It is the right decision because his performance is below the program baseline. 

If the next coach is worse then the mistake was the selection of the next coach.

MaximumSam

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #151 on: January 30, 2024, 11:39:14 AM »
If you fire Holtmann and things get worse then yes, a mistake was made but you are combining the fire and hire decisions and that is not, IMHO, appropriate.

When Purdue fired Hope they hired Hazell and things got worse so yes, a mistake was made. That mistake was hiring Hazell.

If tOSU fires Holtmann that decision stands on it's own. It is the right decision because his performance is below the program baseline.

If the next coach is worse then the mistake was the selection of the next coach.
Oh come on. OSU can't go without a basketball coach. They will hire someone. This isn't a situation involving off court stuff - it is 100% based on money and basketball. The firing and hiring are two sides of the same coin and if you mess them up, you mess them up. There is no need at all to fire Holtmann, so yes, the ADs can absolutely mess it up, and if they do it was a bad decision. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #152 on: January 30, 2024, 11:42:53 AM »
There is no need at all to fire Holtmann
Oh but there is

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chris Holtmann
« Reply #153 on: January 30, 2024, 01:05:23 PM »
Have either of you ever taken any training on decision-making? 

First rule of decision-making is that determining "good" vs "bad" decision-making is based on the PROCESS followed, not the result. 

In every decision, you usually have limited information. I.e. when you hire a coach, you don't know what the result will be, you're just trying to use the information you have to pick the best one. Information such as the coach's past history, the coaches description during interviews of who they are and what their intentions are, etc. 

I personally thought the Hazell hire at the time was very questionable because he had limited head coaching experience, and was worried that coming from the Tressel coaching tree that he was going to try to line up, win in the trenches, and run the ball, which Purdue doesn't have the talent & recruiting to do like OSU does. And while he was successful in turning Kent State around, he was a run-first coach there too. But I view that coaching hire as a mistake due to THAT, not due to the fact that the results were terrible. 

Whereas hiring Brohm was the opposite. He was an innovative offensive-minded coach who was known for high-flying offense, coming to a school known as the "cradle of quarterbacks" and where Joe Tiller had had success with pass-first offenses designed to get the ball in space rather than go 3 yards and a cloud of dust. I liked the hire immediately, and that was NOT because the results were better. 

I don't know enough about Holtmann, but it wouldn't surprise me if doing a decision-making analysis of his hiring, especially given the timing of Matta leaving, was that he was the best decision they had available at the time to make, and given his trajectory at Butler, might have been viewed as a good decision if it had been made in a more traditional coach hiring window. The results haven't panned out, but that doesn't mean the decision was poorly made. 

 

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